Bucs vs. Eagles Odds & Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Eagles +7 (x2!) |
| Under 52.5 |
Eagles +7
Stuckey: First off, I show value on the home underdog from a pure projections standpoint. Secondly, I actually think this is a decent matchup for the Eagles.
On offense, the Eagles simply refuse to run the ball, as their backs average fewer than 14 carries per game. That has frustrated some Philly fans at times, and rightfully so against opponents that struggle to defend the run. However, that approach should work in their favor on Thursday night since you essentially never want to run against the Bucs.
Tampa Bay's defense has actually under-performed this season, ranking 23rd and 24th overall in expected points added (EPA) per play and success rate, respectively. What is driving that decrease in production? Well, the Bucs still have dominant metrics against the run, ranking No. 1 in EPA per rush by a wide margin when you remove garbage time. That leaves the pass defense as the main culprit — that unit ranks 23rd in EPA per drop back in non-garbage time.
So what has happened to the Bucs pass defense?
Well, for starters, the secondary has been crushed by injuries. Tampa Bay will be shorthanded once again without corners Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting in addition to starting safety Antoine Winfield.
Additionally, teams have figured out the script against the Bucs: Don't run the ball and instead attack them with short passes to prevent their rush from getting home. And opponents have executed that game plan successfully to date. Despite blitzing at the highest rate in the league, the Bucs sit in the bottom-five in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Sack Rate.
The Eagles have the personnel and approach to execute this same game plan. It also helps to have Jordan Mailata back at tackle. And while Lane Johnson still remains out at the other tackle spot, Andre Dillard has looked good in limited duty and excels in pass protections, which is really what you need in this matchup. And for what it's worth, Jalen Hurts has thrived against the blitz so far this season.
On the other side of the ball, the Eagles should play two safeties deep and be able to generate some pressure up the middle, which is the best you can hope for when at least trying to slow down Tom Brady a bit.
Lastly, the Bucs have two other key injuries with star linebacker Lavonte David (out) and stud center Ryan Jensen (questionable). Rob Gronkowski will also miss this contest, which could hurt the Bucs in the red zone.
I like this at -120 or better.
Eagles +7
Sean Koerner: Like Stuckey outlined above, the Bucs' defensive injuries are a concern. In fact, I believe sharp action is on the Eagles due to that cluster of injuries — the Eagles have enough depth to overcome their own injuries, but the Bucs don’t.
The drop-off from David — the captain and leader of this Tampa Bay defense — to Kevin Minter is massive, especially when going up against a dual-threat quarterback like Jalen Hurts. I would not be surprised if the Bucs can build a 10+ point lead over the Eagles, but Philly would be a serious threat for a backdoor cover getting a key number of +7.
Under 52.5
Brandon Anderson: The Bucs can hang a huge number on an opponent — they scored 45 against Miami and 48 on Atlanta. That’s why we have such a high over/under heading into Thursday night.
A total of 52.5 points? Tom Brady might hit the over all by himself — at least that’s what the books know we’ll think, but I’m going the other way.
Thursday games can be ugly on short weeks with teams finding it hard to play at the top of their games, and both of these teams are pretty banged up. Tampa Bay continues to rack up injuries and a short week won’t help. Besides, doesn’t it just feel like we get a lot of ugly, lower-than-expected scoring games on Thursday nights?
Our Action Labs data can help answer that: In Thursday night games with a total that opens 53 or higher, the under is 13-4 all time. That’s a 76.5% hit rate — and it’s usually not even close. These games are going under by more than 10 points per game.
Between the Eagles' struggles to score, the injuries and trends, I’ll ride with the under down to 51.5 points.
