With one game left, our experts have spared no expense for the Super Bowl.
We have 10 Eagles vs. Chiefs player prop picks for you to pick from. Let's get straight into it, starting with a bet that's backing Eagles QB Jalen Hurts.
Super Bowl Player Prop Picks: Eagles vs. Chiefs
- Jalen Hurts Anytime TD Scorer
- Patrick Mahomes Rush Attempts
- Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards
- A.J. Brown Receptions
- A.J. Brown Anytime TD Scorer
- DeVonta Smith First TD Scorer
- Dallas Goedert Receptions
- Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards
- Isiah Pacheco Rush Attempts
- Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD Scorer
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD Scorer (-115)
By Grant Neiffer
This should be as simple as any time we get Jalen Hurts to score a TD at close to even money, we just take it, and all of the numbers back it up.
Hurts has scored in 12 of 18 games this season and 11 of 18 games last season. He has been even better in the playoffs, scoring in five of his last seven games and three times back when these teams played in Super Bowl two years ago. Hurts leads the league in QB red-zone touches by a massive margin, and this should be a close, high-scoring game.
I have Hurts at around a 60% chance of scoring.
Pick: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD Scorer (-115)
Patrick Mahomes Over 5.5 Rush Attempts (-125)
By Charlie Wright
We easily hit this in the AFC Championship Game at 4.5, as Patrick Mahomes had a season-high 11 carries.
Mahomes ramps up his production on the ground in the playoffs, and he has set a new season high in rush attempts in each of the Chiefs' first two playoff games. He's averaging 5.4 carries across 20 career playoff games compared to 3.9 attempts across 112 in the regular season. Mahomes has at least six carries in five straight postseason games.
The Eagles ranked in the middle of the NFL in terms of allowing quarterback rush attempts this season. They did hold Jayden Daniels to six carries last week, though he turned them into 48 yards. Philadelphia should be comfortable playing man coverage against this group of receivers, just as Buffalo was in the AFC Conference Championship. That should mean plenty of scrambling opportunities.
We also have added equity with potential Mahomes kneel-downs either at halftime or end of the game.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 5.5 Rush Attempts (-125)
Saquon Barkley Over 111.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By Charlie Wright
This is a big ol' number, but it's down about 20 yards from the record-setting line we saw in the NFC Championship Game. Even while dealing with a lower body injury and a blowout, Saquon Barkley still managed 118 yards on 15 carries. That was actually his worst showing since Week 16, which is pretty incredible.
This play is more about Kansas City's defense. I was on James Cook in the AFC Championship GAme and he smashed his prop. The Chiefs gave up an insane 64% success rate to the Bills. Success rate is typically defined as a run gaining at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down. Buffalo was able to do that on the ground on nearly two out of every three attempts.
Cook's performance continued a trend for Kansas City's defense, which ranked third in yards per carry allowed and rushing yards allowed per game through Week 12. The Chiefs were third in success rate against zone runs and 10th against man/gap runs. From Weeks 13-18, the Chiefs fell to 28th in yards per carry allowed and 25th in rushing yards allowed per game. They went to 13th in success rate against zone runs and 19th in success rate against man/gap runs.
Including both postseason games, Kansas City has now allowed 100+ yards to running backs in six of its last eight games.
Washington's Timmy Smith has the record for rushing yards in a Super Bowl with 204 back in 1988. That mark is in jeopardy.
Pick: Saquon Barkley Over 111.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
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A.J. Brown Over 5.5 Receptions (+115)
By Grant Neiffer
A.J. Brown has been the leader on this team by a decent margin in target share this season (31.7%). While Brown has only hit the over at this number in five games this season, including the playoffs, he's been injured a decent amount and has not been in many trailing game scripts.
The Eagles are a rare underdog here. The Chiefs have been well below average against WR1s this season and have allowed an above-average target share to opposing WR1s, with true WR1s often getting 10+ targets. Jalen Hurts has had passing volume that is drastically lower than average in the majority of games this season, but they've regularly been in run-heavy game scripts, leading early and running the ball heavily late in games (which likely won't be the case in this game).
I have this pick at close to a 50% hit rate, making this a great bet at decent plus odds.
Pick: A.J. Brown Over 5.5 Receptions (+115)
A.J. Brown Anytime TD Scorer (+175)
By Brit Devine
Getting almost +200 on A.J. Brown to find the paint almost seems too good to be true.
Brown has a TD in four of his last six games and instead of the typical Eagles offense that just runs the ball for the entirety of the second half, that unit should be going all out in the passing game for the entirety of the game. The Chiefs will be the best team that Philadelphia has played all season.
Brown has seven end-zone targets over his last six games, while the rest of the Eagles offense has just five. Brown is the preferred option to score in the passing game when they get in close, and he also has the ability to hit a deep one.
Pick: A.J. Brown Anytime TD Scorer (+175)
DeVonta Smith First TD Scorer (+1700)
By Dead President Picks
We are getting a big number on DeVonta Smith to find the end zone first on Sunday, and I'm taking it.
The former Heisman Trophy winner led the Eagles in receiving touchdowns during the regular season and is a big-play threat in the passing game for Jalen Hurts. He's also great in one-on-one situations, which makes him a reliable red-zone target.
I'll happily take a reliable player like Smith at 17-1 in this market.
Pick: DeVonta Smith First TD Scorer (+1700)
Dallas Goedert Over 4.5 Receptions (-128)
