Since the dawn of gambling, the dream has been to turn a tiny amount of money into a lot. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., all offer the same appeal.
Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can add same-game parlays. So, we have an Eagles vs. Chiefs parlay for Super Bowl 59 at DraftKings.
Eagles vs. Chiefs Parlay Picks
- Chiefs Moneyline (-115)
- Isaiah Pacheco 6+ Rush Attempts (-131)
- Jalen Hurts Under 18.5 Passing Completions (-106)
- DeVonta Smith Anytime TD (+260)
Full Super Bowl SGP Odds: +2600 | $10 Bet Wins $270
Chiefs Moneyline (-115)
I'm starting this SGP at DraftKings because they have the best price on the Chiefs moneyline. I didn't want to take Chiefs -1.5 and potentially lose the parlay by a hook, and the -1 lines could lead to a tie, lowering the parlay's effective odds.
DraftKings also has a bigger menu than the books with the spread at -1, so it made sense overall.
With that out of the way, I've been very impressed by the playoff version of the Chiefs. All year it was easy to wonder if their offense had lost a step, but it seems like they were just saving it for the postseason.
Plus, we've forgotten about the Eagles' offensive dysfunction due to Saquon Barkley's ridiculous performances, but they'll need their passing attack against a tough Chiefs defense. It wasn't long ago that Nick Sirianni's job was being called into question, there was tension between Jalen Hurts and his wide receivers, and A.J. Brown was reading a novel on the sideline.
It's easy to mask those issues when everything is going well, but they could be an issue if Philly has to deal with adversity.
Isaiah Pacheco 6+ Rush Attempts (-131)
This is the top prop in our Prop Projections for the Super Bowl, with the best line also conveniently found at DraftKings.
It also correlates nicely with a Chiefs win, as a positive game script theoretically boosts the amount of total rushing from the Chiefs side.
While it doesn't do much for the overall odds because of that correlation, we're projecting enough of an edge that it's a nice starting point to get to some juicier numbers.
Jalen Hurts Under 18.5 Passing Completions (-107)
This is another solid edge in our projections, and unlike the Pacheco pick, we're getting juicier odds because of how DraftKings views the correlation with our other picks.
If we add Hurts' completion over, the running parlay odds are just +300. However, adding the under brings it to +500. That makes sense on the one hand, as Hurts is more likely to attempt more passes if the Eagles fall behind.
However, since we're looking at completions and not attempts, there's an argument that Hurts failing to complete many passes makes the Eagles less likely to win.
Both teams also play fairly slowly, controlling the ball well for extended drives. That should limit the volume somewhat on Hurts since you know Barkley will get his attempts.
DeVonta Smith Anytime TD (+260)
This one obviously is anti-correlated with both the Chiefs winning and Hurts' passing completions going under, but due to that, we're getting fantastic odds.
I love this prop in its own right, and it's one of the better edges in our projections. Beyond that, it takes the total odds of the parlay to a whopping +2700.
Smith found the end zone in about half of the games he's played this season, and the total here is high enough that his scoring shouldn't have a huge impact on the Chiefs' ability to win.
Kansas City is also a minor pass funnel, ranking 17th in DVOA against the pass but ninth against the run. For this to hit, we need that to show up in terms of efficiency rather than volume which is a tight needle to thread — but that's why we're getting nearly 30:1 odds.
Full Super Bowl SGP Odds: +2600 | $10 Bet Wins $270
