The Super Bowl is finally here, so let's get right to making Chiefs vs. Eagles picks.
This is your one-stop shop for everything I've got in terms of Super Bowl picks with the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs facing off today in Arizona.
I've written all sorts of things on this game over the last couple weeks. Here you'll find links to everything in one place, plus my full Super Bowl preview and analysis and every pick I'm making.
Best bets are at the bottom. Let's start with why I like the Eagles and dig into everything from there. It's our last game of the season — let's have some fun.
Here are my Super Bowl picks and previews.
Eagles vs. Chiefs Odds
| Eagles Odds | -1.5 |
| Chiefs Odds | +1.5 |
| Moneyline | -118 / +100 |
| Over/Under | 50.5 (-118 / -104) |
| Time | Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via FanDuel and as of 1:35 p.m. ET. | |
Super Bowl LVII Analysis: Chiefs vs. Eagles
This should be a heck of a game between two teams that have been at or near the top of the NFL standings all season, but for all the narratives and storylines, these teams could not be more different.
On one side is the Chiefs, a mainstay at this stage, back for their third Super Bowl in four years after five straight trips to the AFC Championship Game.
We already know what the Chiefs are. Ever since Patrick Mahomes took the reins with his breakout debut MVP season as a starter, Kansas City has been nearly unbeatable. The Chiefs are an incredible 74-19 in Mahomes starts. That's a 13.5-win pace over a typical regular season — and that sparkling win rate includes 10-3 in the postseason.
Mahomes is now a two-time MVP and once again recognized as the best player in the league. He led the NFL in passing yards, touchdowns and QBR and never missed a beat, even without Tyreek Hill.
Travis Kelce was a monster as usual, but the rest of the offense was more balanced this year with a cadre of varied wideout options, a stealthily strong run game led by seventh-round rookie Isiah Pacheco and a good offensive line. The defense took its lumps and ranked around league average but — like usual under Steve Spagnuolo — has peaked late in the year, especially in pass defense.
Other than the absence of Hill, these are the Chiefs we've come to know so well over the last five years. Not so for the Eagles, who last played in the Super Bowl five years ago, but remarkably did so with both a different head coach and quarterback.
Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts have changed everything for Philadelphia. Sirianni and his coaching staff, snubbed for Coach of the Year honors, did an excellent job managing a deep and talented squad and playing to its strengths. The Eagles are uber-aggressive, passing early to take the lead before pounding the ball late to bleed the clock, and they were 22-for-32 on fourth downs (69%) this season. Philadelphia will have a serious in-game coaching and game management advantage.
Hurts was the (misguided) MVP favorite until his late-season injury after a breakout season in his second year as a starter. The Eagles have lost only one Hurts game all year and rank first in offensive DVOA with him on the field — ahead of the Chiefs. Philadelphia put everything together offensively this year. The run game led the league by a country mile, and it was buoyed by a dynamic passing game featuring A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
The Eagles are built first in the trenches as a core staple, and that's where they've dominated all year. They had the best offensive line in the league and the best defensive line. Philadelphia ranked first in pressure rate, and its 11.5% sack rate on pass downs ranked first, not just this season, but this entire century, as far ahead of No. 2 as second was ahead of No. 29, literally lapping the NFL.
The Eagles won with depth, balance, defense and coaching. The names at the top are different from the 2018 Super Bowl, but the core tenets are the same. They took a more circuitous route than the Chiefs, but both franchises got here by playing their best hits. For Kansas City, that's Mahomes, Mahomes, Mahomes. For the Eagles, it's balance, versatility and big boy football.
I expect this game to be won in the trenches, and that's why I like the Eagles.
Jonathan Gannon's Philly defense has mixed reviews against elite QBs. The Eagles secondary is talented, but they're helped greatly by the elite pass rush, especially when ahead and Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham are unleashed off the edge. If those pass rushers don't get home and Mahomes has time, he will pick apart this zone-heavy cover scheme like top-level quarterbacks have in the past.
Philadelphia's pass rush has to bother Mahomes and finish the job, sacking him and forcing mistakes and turnovers. The interior of Kansas City's offensive line is elite at pass blocking, but tackles Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie are suspect.
The Chiefs ranked around league average in some pass blocking metrics. They faced only one team in the top quarter of the league in pressure rate and struggled to protect Mahomes. That's an even bigger problem if the ankle injury flares up as the game progresses.
Philadelphia's elite edge rush against Kansas City's tackles is the key matchup in Super Bowl LVII. If the Chiefs find a way to keep Mahomes healthy and clean — be it with TE-heavy sets, quick throws or chip blocks — Philadelphia could be in for a long night. I trust those edge rushers to change the game.
The Eagles' run defense was much-maligned early in the season, but improved late once Jordan Davis returned to the lineup along with the midseason acquisitions of Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh. They were a respectable 12th in DVOA from Week 13 forward with that trio healthy and playing together.
Kansas City's run game made similar progress late, but any analysis expecting Isiah Pacheco to run away with this game for the Chiefs feels off. Philly's run defense can hang, and every Kansas City handoff is just one less Mahomes pass — a win for the defense.
The Eagles should win in the trenches on the other side of the ball, too.
As I mentioned earlier, Philadelphia's run game and offensive line is the best in the league. Center Jason Kelce, in particular, allows this team to run concepts few other teams can. This ground attack is versatile — it can run power or zone, get to the outside or confuse the defense with RPO.
Philadelphia ranked first in rushing DVOA, rushing EPA and explosive run plays, and they led some of those categories by a mile. The Eagles tend to probe and experiment early in games until they find a run concept that works, then mash it until the opponent can make a stop.
The Chiefs ranked around league average defensively but improved late — but mostly in pass defense as their young secondary got healthy and found its way. The run defense remains beatable. Kansas City ranked 21st in rushing defense DVOA and last in ESPN's run-stop win rate metric.
For all the talk over the last couple weeks about how untested the Eagles are — and fairly so, but you can only beat the teams in front of you — the Chiefs defense has not faced many tough tests either. The defense saw only four top-13 DVOA offenses all season and ranked 24th in those games. They ranked 31st in red zone defense — the Eagles offense ranks first — and were bad against the slot and defending short passes, where Hurts excels.
The Chiefs faced only two teams with a positive run DVOA in the regular season. They lost both games and struggled to find a rhythm with the 30th ranked DVOA defense in them.
The best defense against Mahomes is the same thing it's always been. It's not Cover 3 or zone or two-high — Mahomes has found answers against all of those schemes. The only truly successful defense is keeping him on the sidelines.
The Eagles are better equipped to do that than any team. They play at one of the league's slowest tempos in the second half, and with a lead, grinding out the clock on long, demoralizing 12-play, 78-yard scoring drives as the opposing offense watches along hopelessly. If Philadelphia can put together a couple of those drives, all the Chiefs firepower won't matter.
At the end of the day, this for me is about team versus individual.
The Chiefs have Mahomes. If that's all the analysis you need, you're 1,500 words too far — and I can't say I blame you. But the best quarterback didn't win the Super Bowl last year or the year before, nor in the last Eagles Super Bowl or in either of Peyton Manning's Broncos games or the two Giants–Patriots upsets or — you get the point, and that's just in the last 15 years.
It's reductive and unfair to say the Chiefs are just Mahomes, but there's a reason no regular season MVP has gone on to win the Super Bowl anytime this century. Football is a team game, and team beats individual greatness.
Modern MVPs are so valuable precisely because they elevate an otherwise flawed squad. The Eagles are better running the ball, better at blocking, better at receiver, better rushing the passer, better in the secondary, better on special teams and better at in-game coaching. Mahomes is Kansas City's one big edge — maybe its only one.
Then again … he's Patrick Mahomes. That alone might still be enough.
Side: Eagles -1.5
In case it isn't clear, I like the Eagles.
Bet the Eagles vs. Chiefs Spread at FanDuel
Philadelphia has more game-breaking playmakers who can change the game in a moment, on both sides of the ball. This is a spot where the Chiefs will miss Tyreek Hill, who destroyed the Eagles last October. Kansas City's one elite defender, Chris Jones, could be neutralized by Philadelphia's elite line.
For Philadelphia, A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith can bust a long catch on any play and dominate Kansas City's heavy-man coverage. The Eagles' run game can bite off big chunk plays. Haason Reddick had 19.5 sacks and led the league in forced fumbles. The pass rush features four 11-sack players and is backed by an elite cornerback duo in Darius Slay and James Bradberry along with NFL interceptions leader C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
And don't forget about Jalen Hurts. For all the questions about Hurts' health and arm, it's his mind and decision making that could make the difference. His presence on the field opens everything up because Philadelphia looks so similar pre-snap from play to play, allowing Hurts to read the defense after the snap, make quick decisions, and take what's there. His elite talent is not electric runs or dazzling throws. It's the way he plays point guard and keeps the offense whirring.
Still, if I'm going to bet against Mahomes, I need to make it worth my sweat. I'm not particularly interested in laying points and drinking juice to bet against the best player in the world. I like Eagles -1.5, but I'd rather play the double result and bet Eagles half-time / full-time at +160 (PointsBet). It's +142 at FanDuel, where you can bet it instantly below.
Pick: Eagles Halftime-Full Time Parlay (+142) |
Philadelphia has been a tremendous first-half team. The Eagles pass aggressively early to take the lead; they're the best second-quarter team in football. The Eagles led at half in 14 of their 16 wins — 87.5% of the time. They were tied once and trailed once by a TD.
The Eagles have played with the lead all season, and while some have used that to criticize them and wonder how they'll respond if put in an uncomfortable position, I'll go the other direction and play that to our advantage. A winning Eagles game script looks like the same one we saw all season: take an early lead at the half, chew up clock on long rushing drives and release the pass-rushing hounds late to protect the lead.
I do not want my money on Hurts trailing late needing a comeback against Mahomes. No thanks. If the Eagles trail at half, I'll lose this bet outright, but I wouldn't feel great about a Philadelphia side or moneyline at that point either.
If I like the Eagles, it has to be because I like them to do what they've done all year, getting the lead early and playing to their strengths. The math says the Eagles need to lead at the half in 70% of all wins for this to be a better bet than the moneyline, so the extra payout is worth losing the comeback out.
If you like, you can play an escalator and take it one step further. Philadelphia is +300 to lead after every quarter at PointsBet.
Total: Under 51
I don't have a strong play on the total, so I'll likely pass. I lean under, but both of these offenses play so aggressively and have so many answers that points could come in a hurry.
If you like the Eagles, I think you do have to lean under. Again, follow the game script. A bet on Philadelphia is a bet on them finding some answers against Mahomes, getting that lead, and then grinding out the clock with long second-half drives.
I think it's Eagles and under or Chiefs and over. Kansas City probably wins a shootout. Either way, this is not my preferred way to play.
Chiefs Props
You're going to want Patrick Mahomes overs. My favorite is over 25.5 completions (-114).
That number is right at his season average, but a look at his postseason game log tells another story. Outside of the two games he left due to injury (Jacksonville this year and Cleveland in 2021), Mahomes has at least 26 completions in seven straight playoff games. This bet should be game-script proof. Either the Chiefs are ahead because of Mahomes, or they're chucking it from behind. More completions than Hurts (-265 FanDuel) looks worth the juice, too.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 Completions |
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QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The other Mahomes passing props are set awfully high because they know we'll want the overs. I lean over 325+ passing yards at +194. He's done that in four of his last six complete playoff games, and I'd rather play alternates than the traditional line.
If you're looking for a Chiefs anytime TD play, I don't mind Mahomes +500. He ran one in during four games this year, but he has done so in 5-of-13 playoff starts (38%).
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Anytime TD |
The potential return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire muddies the backfield and makes Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon props tenuous. Pacheco is coming off a career-high snap rate, but his prop lines have been boosted accordingly.
I do like sprinkling some McKinnon alt overs since he could see a high snap count as a pass blocker against Philly's pass rush. He's a dynamic pass catcher and Philly's defense ranked 24th in DVOA against RBs.
Kansas City's screen game is outstanding and a great weapon to offset that pressure. McKinnon is +280 for 40+ receiving yards and +430 for 50+ at FanDuel. He's +300 to score a receiving TD at BetRivers and did that six straight games heading into the playoffs, and you can play two receiving scores at +3800 at FanDuel. Sprinkle a couple of your favorites.
Pick: Jerick McKinnon 40+ Receiving Yards (+280) |
Travis Kelce will have another big game, but his lines are priced accordingly and I don't like his MVP odds. I like a +1100 DraftKings prop for Kelce and DeVonta Smith to combine for at least 200 receiving yards and two scores. I project the duo around 170 yards and 1.7 TDs, so that's a bad number.
You can also bet Kelce to lead the playoffs in receiving yards (-350; Bet365). He's 44 yards behind Ja'Marr Chase for the lead and 44+ ahead of everyone playing. This is basically a bet on at least 45 yards and worth the juice.
Chiefs receiver props have been tough to come by with the injury uncertainty. Philadelphia plays a lot of zone, so if I had to bet on one receiver to have a big game, it'd be JuJu Smith-Schuster. He's a boom-or-bust zone buster and had three or fewer catches in 10 games, but also seven other games with at least five catches and 74 yards. He's +650 to hit 75 yards at Bet365.
I also love Sean Koerner's bet on the Chiefs to call the first timeout. Nick Sirianni has never wasted a timeout in two full seasons because of a late play call or delay of game, and the Chiefs have used the first timeout in 15-of-19 games (79%) this season, 12 of them wasted.
Eagles Props
I won't be as aggressive betting individual Eagles props because part of my cap for this game is believing in their balance and ability to win the game with any number of weapons. That means any player can have a big game — alternate overs season! — but others can be unpredictably quiet.
I'm certainly not looking to bet many Jalen Hurts props. His passing yardage line feels much too high to me, and I lean under on rushing too. I wrote at length about why Hurts to win MVP is one of the worst bets you can make this Super Bowl. Instead, I'll play the Field -170 vs. Hurts to win MVP at FanDuel.
If you do want a Hurts play, his anytime TD bet is one of my favorite even-money props at +105. He ran for 15 TDs in 17 games with at least one in 11 of them (65%). That push sneak is unstoppable. This line is short.
I like the Eagles to have a big rushing game as per above, but I'm not playing any of Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell or Boston Scott since they may all contribute. Instead, let's play the team angle.
I love over 1.5 Philadelphia rushing touchdowns at +120 (DraftKings). Kansas City is terrible in the red zone and Philly led the league in rushing scores. They had at least two rushing scores in 11-of-16 wins (69%), so I can't believe we're getting plus odds here.
I'm treating these Eagles receivers similarly. I expect a big game from the trio of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, but I don't see a lot of value in the individual lines.
Smith is my favorite play. He averaged 6.4 catches for 93 yards with five TDs in seven games before the weird Niners game. The Chiefs ranked 31st in DVOA against WR1s and 26th on the right side of the field, where Smith typically plays (vs. 6th on the left, A.J. Brown's home). All but one Smith TD this year came against man coverage, and the Chiefs play the eighth-most man.
I'd like Smith over 64.5 receiving yards and alternate overs in theory, but I'm playing even more aggressively. Smith is my favorite pick to win Super Bowl MVP at +3100, and that's one of my best bets game wide. You can read my whole MVP breakdown and case for Smith.
Pick: DeVonta Smith MVP (+3300) |
Lastly, don't forget about the defenders.
Haason Reddick has been Philadelphia's playoff MVP thus far. He has at least one sack in eight of the last 10 games and at least two in four of the last six. I like Reddick to get a sack in a win (+190 FanDuel) and will also play two Reddick sacks at +500. I sprinkled him for MVP at +3400.
Pick: Reddick to Record Sack & Eagles Win (+190) |
Pick: Haason Reddick MVP (+3400) |
This is another area to back the team over an individual. Philadelphia is -112 to record the most sacks (FanDuel). Mahomes' sack rate goes up in the playoffs and Hurts has seen his sack rate drop to two per game over the back half, with just one sack in three of his last four.
That's another of my favorite even-money bets. If you're worried about Mahomes' ankle, you can play an Eagles sack escalator at FanDuel: +550 for five, +1400 for six, +3400 for seven. I'll probably just stick with the -112 for most sacks.
Exotics and Long Shots
Need a few more long shots and exotic bets before we hit the road? It's the Super Bowl after all, so let's get goofy.
These are 0.25 unit bets, fun sprinkles on the last game of the season. The one at the bottom — both Kelces to score a TD — is the most fun bet you can make this Super Bowl. Ten bucks wins you $7,450.
Pick: Travis & Jason Kelce To Each Score Touchdown (+20000) |
I'll stay away from Rihanna songs and Gatorade baths, but I did write about some of my favorite long shots on the board. You can read the cases there, but here are a few other plus value bets I haven't mentioned above:
- Over 2.5 players with a pass attempt (+190 BetRivers)
- Philadelphia defense anytime touchdown (+750 FanDuel)
- Miles Sanders most playoff rushing yards (+900 Bet365)
- Reddick 2+ sacks and T.J. Edwards 10+ tackles and assists (+1500 DraftKings)
- Any defensive player TD + any defender Super Bowl MVP (+3000 DraftKings)
- No Eagles punts in the game (+2800 FanDuel)
- Both Jason and Travis Kelce to score a touchdown (+74500 Circa)
Super Bowl LVII Best Bets
- Eagles half-time / full-time +160
- DeVonta Smith Super Bowl MVP +3100
- Super Bowl MVP Field vs Hurts -170
- Over 1.5 Philadelphia rushing TDs +120
Favorite Props
- Eagles most sacks -112
- Mahomes over 25.5 completions -114
- T. Kelce most playoff receiving yards -350
- Reddick sack in Eagles win +190
- Philadelphia defense anytime TD +750
- Both Kelces to score a TD +74500 (seriously)
