The Super Bowl features a rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday.
The Chiefs are seeking to make history and become the first team to win three straight championships, while the Eagles are seeking revenge over the Chiefs after losing to them in Super Bowl LVII two years ago. In this article, I’ll provide an overview of the side and total markets in this game before diving into an array of player and game props. Let’s get to work.
Eagles vs. Chiefs Pick Against the Spread
When the Chiefs Have the Ball
Patrick Mahomes continues to rewrite history and is on his way to challenging Tom Brady as the best quarterback ever. This season has not lived up to his lofty standards, but his top three games by dropback EPA have all come over his last four games – he’s saving his best stuff for late in the season when his team needs it the most. In the AFC Championship, he posted season highs in dropback success rate (64.7%) and dropback EPA (+21.5) per Next Gen Stats.
The Chiefs played things close to the vest throughout the regular season, especially on offense, but in the playoffs, Andy Reid has begun to unleash the playbook fully. With two weeks to prepare for the Super Bowl, expect Reid to have a stellar game plan. He’ll need it against what has been a dominant Eagles defense.
In his first season as the defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio has pressed all the right buttons on the Eagles’ way to rank first in defensive DVOA. Of course, any season-long sample will be full of varying levels of opponents. Still, Philadelphia can hang its hat on holding Baltimore and Cincinnati, two top-six offenses by DVOA, to fewer than 20 points in road wins.
Pass protection has been a consistent issue for the Chiefs this season, and they’ve been forced to move Joe Thuney to left tackle. That has left the interior offensive line vulnerable, which is not where you want to be against the likes of Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, and Milton Williams. It should be an uphill battle for the Chiefs running the ball against an Eagles defensive front that allows 1.47 yards before contact per attempt, the fifth-lowest in the league.
Ultimately, this game will likely come down to Mahomes donning his Superman cape against the league’s best defense. He has the best playoff EPA/play of any quarterback this century, and if the Chiefs find themselves down by one possession late, it’s hard to bet against him coming through in the clutch yet again.
When the Eagles Have the Ball
Last season, as the Eagles lost six of their last seven games, their rapid decline on defense underscored their total collapse. However, offensive inconsistency also became a massive issue. Enter Kellen Moore, who has paid dividends as the new offensive coordinator. So too has Saquon Barkley, who has had a triumphant season in the best offensive environment of his career, rushing for 2,447 yards and 18 touchdowns.
The Chiefs had an excellent run defense for much of the regular season, but it has begun to falter in recent weeks. Since Week 11, Kansas City ranks just 20th in run defense EPA and 24th in success rate. It will be fascinating to see how Steve Spagnuolo attempts to contain Barkley, and the Chiefs may have no choice but to load the box to stop him. Barkley will still find ways to hit explosives against loaded boxes, but he’s been held to 3.93 YPC against 8+ man fronts.
Aside from stopping Barkley, Spagnuolo’s top defensive priority has to be to get Jalen Hurts in obvious passing situations. The Chiefs rank fourth in blitz rate this season (31.6%), and Spags will have some exotic blitzes saved for the high-leverage moments in this game. He dialed up a brilliant disguised blitz against Josh Allen on the critical fourth-down play to seal the Chiefs’ victory in the AFC Championship game.
Hurts has struggled under pressure this season, ranking 35th out of 43 qualified quarterbacks with 4.9 yards per attempt and 41st in that same group with a 32.9 PFF passing grade. The Eagles have an excellent offensive line, ranking sixth in pass-block win rate, but Hurts has often been prone to holding onto the ball too long, inviting unnecessary pressure.
If the Chiefs are forced to load the box to stop Barkley, as most Eagles’ opponents have been, opportunities should open up for A.J. Brown. The Chiefs rank second in two-high safety rate (61.1%) per Fantasy Points Data, but the Eagles have seen the second-highest rate of single-high looks. Brown is a monster against single-high defense, averaging 3.94 Y/RR against that coverage, which ranks second among qualified receivers.
When Push Comes to Shove
Top to bottom, the Eagles have the better roster in this game. It’s going to require a masterful job by Steve Spagnuolo to find ways to contain Saquon Barkley given how dominant he has been this season. There’s a clear recipe for the Eagles to find early success against a declining Chiefs’ run defense by leaning on Barkley, hitting on explosive plays both on the ground and through the air, and relying on a lockdown defense against an offense lacking big-play upside.
However, if this game is close late, it’s impossible to fade the Chiefs, who have won an NFL record 17 straight one-score games. Spagnuolo should find halftime adjustments to dial up pressure on Hurts, while Mahomes will always make the necessary plays late to give his team a chance to win, regardless of the defense he’s facing.
Last year against the 49ers, the Chiefs trailed 10-3 at halftime before coming back to win. Two years ago against the Eagles, they trailed 24-14 at halftime before coming back to win. We’ve seen this script play out repeatedly for Kansas City, and the triumvirate of Mahomes, Reid, and Spagnuolo find ways to execute remarkable postseason comebacks.
I like the Eagles to cover in the first half at +1.5 or +0.5, but my favorite value is on the Eagles Half Time and Chiefs Full Game double result. You can find that game prop at +600 on DraftKings.
Verdict: Bet Eagles Half Time / Chiefs Full Game (+600, DraftKings)
Eagles vs. Chiefs Over/Under Prediction
The Chiefs and Eagles are two of the best teams in the NFL when it comes to methodical offensive football. The Eagles lead the NFL in time of possession, and with their varied rushing attack and seemingly unstoppable fourth-down conversions, it’s nearly impossible to get them off the field at times. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have lacked explosiveness on offense this year, but thanks to Reid’s brilliant coaching and Mahomes’ brilliance under center, they rank second in third-down success rate.
In other words, we’re likely to see a game with a lower count of total possessions, but both offenses should be able to matriculate the ball down the field and get into scoring position. From there, it will come down to red-zone defense. Both defenses rank top-ten in red-zone touchdown rate allowed, while both offenses rank outside the top-ten in that same metric.
I don’t have a strong take on the total in this game, although I would lean towards the under. Spagnuolo will have a strong game plan for Hurts and Barkley, while Mahomes faces arguably his toughest test of the season against this Eagles defense.
At halftime, I’ll be keeping an eye on the second-half total for a potential bet on the under as I expect Spagnuolo to have sharp adjustments to limit Philadelphia’s scoring. Kansas City has also averaged just 9.9 points per game after halftime, which ranks 23rd in the NFL.
Verdict: Lean Under 48.5 Points, Watch for Second Half Under
Eagles vs. Chiefs Player Props
Dallas Goedert 50+ Receiving Yards (-120, FanDuel)
Since returning from a late-season injury, Dallas Goedert has been in fine form for the Eagles. He’s posted 50+ receiving yards in three of his last four games, including a dominant showing against the Commanders in the NFC Championship with seven catches for 85 yards. This looks to be another spot where Goedert should thrive.
The Chiefs have struggled to defend tight ends all season, allowing 68.5 yards per game, the second-most in the NFL. Ten different tight ends have gone over 46.5 yards against this group in 19 games. Kansas City has often allowed yards after the catch to opposing tight ends, and that’s where Goedert thrives – he ranks second among qualified tight ends with 6.7 yards after the catch per reception.
There’s also a chance that the Chiefs utilize more man coverage in this game – they ranked ninth in the regular season (32.5%) per Fantasy Points Data. If the Chiefs’ declining run defense is struggling to contain Saquon Barkley, Steve Spagunolo may opt for more man defense with extra defenders near the line of scrimmage. That would benefit Goedert, who leads all tight ends with 3.62 yards per route run against man defense.
The Eagles will likely find themselves in more neutral or even trailing game scripts than they’re used to. They lead the NFL with a 60.8% rush play rate when playing with a lead, so additional volume could be on the table for Goedert in this game. He leads the Eagles’ receivers with a 27% target per route run rate and 2.81 yards per route run in the postseason.
If you want a different way to bet on Goedert, he’s currently -115 on FanDuel to lead the playoff field in receiving yards. Dyami Brown is the current leader with 229 yards, and Goedert needs 42 yards to surpass him. Travis Kelce (94), Xavier Worthy (100), DeVonta Smith (109), and A.J. Brown (110) would need to perform well ahead of their median projections to beat Goedert in that market.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
It’s been a quiet year for JuJu Smith-Schuster, who accumulated 56% of his 230 regular season receiving yards in one game. However, he’s coming off a strong performance against the Bills with two catches for 60 yards, including a 31-yard reception. On that long catch, Smith-Schuster found a gap in the middle of the field against the Bills’ linebackers and turned it into an explosive play.
Smith-Schuster had a 56% route-run rate last week, and he only ran four fewer routes than Marquise Brown. It seems that the Chiefs are phasing DeAndre Hopkins out of the offense as the veteran has struggled to make an impact. Smith-Schuster has run 41.4% of his routes out of the slot this year, which is where he’d normally meet Cooper DeJean. However, Fangio will likely deploy DeJean against Travis Kelce as the higher priority.
With DeJean occupied elsewhere, Smith-Schuster will likely end up with some routes run against linebackers in the Eagles’ zone defense. After Nakobe Dean suffered a season-ending injury, Oren Burks played 71 of 79 snaps last week. He’s allowed 21 receptions on 23 targets this year, so this is a matchup Mahomes could look to exploit.
Chamarri Conner Over 4.5 Tackles + Assists (-105, BetMGM)
One of the Chiefs’ unsung heroes on defense this year has been Chamarri Conner. In particular, he’s a standout run defender, who led all defensive backs in PFF’s run stop percentage metric. That’s defined as the “amount of defensive stops a defender makes against the run compared to the amount of snaps he played in run defense.”
Spagnuolo had high praise for Conner earlier this season, saying “wide receivers try to block him [and] he wants nothing to do with them… he’s a safety playing a corner position at nickel.” Out of 80 cornerbacks with 600+ snaps this year, Conner ranked 14th in PFF’s run defense grades.
Conner’s run defense allows the Chiefs to primarily use nickel defense on early downs, and he’s been a consistent part of the defense down the stretch. He’s played 74% and 77% of snaps in the team’s two playoff games, and he’s played 70+% of snaps in eight straight games to close out the season, except for Week 15 when he left with an injury and Week 18 when the Chiefs’ backups started the game. Dating back to the end of last season, Conner has cleared 4.5 tackles + assists in seven of ten games where he plays 70+% of snaps, averaging 6.1 tackles + assists in those spots.
Chris Jones To Record a Sack (+136, FanDuel)
A significant issue for the Eagles in the playoffs has been Jalen Hurts holding onto the ball for too long and manufacturing unnecessary sacks. Overall this season, his average 3.21 seconds time-to-throw leads the NFL. In the playoffs, he’s taken 11 sacks with a 30.5% pressure-to-sack rate that would lead the league this season. His overall P2S% of 23% would be a career-high this year.
Chris Jones should be able to take advantage as one of the best pass-rushers in the NFL. According to PFF, he ranks second in the league with 85 pressures and third with 18 quarterback hits. He’s also the only player in the league to record 25+ pressures from both an interior and edge alignment – the Chiefs will often kick him out to the edge in obvious passing situations to allow him to wreak havoc.
Jalen Carter To Record a Sack (+131, DraftKings)
Chris Jones is the best interior pass rusher in the league right now, but second-year pro Jalen Carter is well on his way to that designation. Carter has been double-teamed on over 52% of his pass rushes during the Eagles’ playoff run, and he still leads the league with 20 pressures in the postseason.
The Chiefs were forced to kick Joe Thuney out to left tackle due to issues at the position, which has left their interior offensive line more vulnerable. Former 2022 UDFA Mike Caliendo is starting at left guard, and he’s posted a 43.6 PFF pass-blocking grade, which ranks 72nd out of 79 qualified guards this season.
Of course, the Chiefs will attempt to double team Carter and prevent him from wreaking havoc. However, Fangio has dialed up creative stunts and twists to free up Carter for one-on-one opportunities, and all it takes is one play for him to break through the line and take down Mahomes for this prop to hit.
Harrison Butker Over 7.5 Kicking Points (-114, FanDuel)
I was eyeing Harrison Butker to go over 1.5 field goals in this game, but that prop got steamed to the over. The better value now lies on Butker to go over 7.5 kicking points in this spot.
The Chiefs will find ways to move the ball with creative game-planning and Mahomes’ excellence under center, but the Eagles’ defense has been elite in the red-zone all year. Philadelphia has allowed just a 48.3% red-zone touchdown rate (5th-lowest), while Kansas City has scored a touchdown on just 53.9% of red-zone trips (22nd).
The Chiefs haven’t been overly aggressive on fourth down, attempting just 17 fourth-down conversions, which ranks 26th in the NFL. They’re willing to settle for field goals when they get into scoring distance, which is a better proposition when Butker has made 21 of 22 field goals in the playoffs since 2022. He’s over 7.5 kicking points in eight of nine playoff games over that span. He’s also over in all eight games with multiple field goals and 19 of 21 games since the start of last year.
Super Bowl Game Props
Chiefs Team Under 114.5 Rushing Yards (-108, FanDuel)
Chris Raybon broke down this look on the Sunday Six Pack for the Super Bowl, and I’m incorporating it into my article here. This is a full fade of the Chiefs’ run game, and you can find this prop under “Rushing Props” on FanDuel.
When the Chiefs moved Joe Thuney from guard to left tackle, they solved some of their pass protection issues, but they also weakened what was already a subpar run-blocking unit. Since Thuney made that move, the Chiefs have generated just 1.19 yards before contact per rush attempt, which would have ranked 31st out of 32 teams during the regular season.
The Chiefs lack difference-making running backs, as Kareem Hunt (61st) and Isiah Pacheco (64th) rank well below-average out of 70 qualified running backs in explosive rush rate. As a team, Kansas City ranks just 31st with a 2.7% explosive rush rate. Without the benefit of explosive runners or strong run-blocking, the Chiefs have averaged just 3.2 YPC this postseason.
Kansas City’s run game issues aren’t likely to be solved this week. The Eagles rank second in run defense DVOA and have allowed just 1.46 yards before contact per attempt, the fourth-lowest in the league. When the Chiefs attempt to run up the middle, they’ll be met with the dominant interior presences of Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis.
The Chiefs rank second in the league with a 58.1% early down pass play rate, so they won’t stubbornly stick with the run if it’s not working, and it’s not likely to in this game. With a tight spread – the Chiefs are favored by just 1.5 points – there’s the added potential that they find themselves in a trailing game script, further limiting rushing upside. Finally, Patrick Mahomes kneeldowns at the end of the game could count against the team’s rushing totals.
Philadelphia Eagles to Score Longest Touchdown (-118, FanDuel)
I’m saving the best for last here, and this might be my favorite bet of the Super Bowl. You can find it under “Game Props” on FanDuel. The Eagles are far more likely to generate an explosive touchdown in this game than the Chiefs. Kansas City’s offense has a long touchdown of 25+ yards in just two of 16 games since Week 3, while Philadelphia has posted a 25+ yard touchdown in 12 of 17 games over that span.
The Eagles rank seventh in explosive rush rate, and no matter what defensive approach the Chiefs employ, Saquon Barkley is a threat to take a rush to the house on any given play. If the Chiefs opt to load the box and play more single-high coverage, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith represent significant threats to take the top off the defense for a long touchdown. Finally, we’ve seen Jalen Hurts generate explosive plays on the ground, including a 44-yard touchdown against the Rams in the Divisional Round.
Philadelphia’s defense, meanwhile, has been elite at limiting big plays. Vic Fangio’s group has allowed a 25+ yard touchdown in just three of 17 games since Week 3, and the Eagles rank first in defensive DVOA against deep passing. The Chiefs also rank just 31st in explosive rush rate, so it’s highly unlikely they generate an explosive rushing touchdown.
The Eagles would have won this prop in 14 of 15 games since their Week 5 bye, while the Chiefs would have lost in 12 of 18 games overall this season. This prop should not be priced at close to even money, and barring a fluky defensive or special teams touchdown, I fully expect the Eagles to generate the longer touchdown play in the Super Bowl.
