Defense wins championships. So goes the old adage, and two of the league's finest defenses will be on display in Super Bowl LIX when the Chiefs meet the Eagles.
Steve Spagnuolo always has Kansas City playing at a top level in the playoffs, and Vic Fangio's Philadelphia defense has been the best in the league in virtually every metric since the start of October.
But there's something about defenses that seems to spike a little extra big play potential on the grandest stage of them all in the Super Bowl. And that's why I always anticipate defenses making big plays in the Super Bowl by betting on a potential defensive touchdown and even a defensive Super Bowl MVP.
Defenses Often Score in the Super Bowl
For whatever reason, defenses consistently find a way to score touchdowns in the Super Bowl.
Just look at what happened the last time these teams met here two years ago.
Jalen Hurts lost the ball on a designed run, and Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton scooped it up and took it to the house for a touchdown. Later in the game, Bolton appeared to score a second TD after another scoop and score, but the play was overturned in a bang-bang review decision.
Bolton's touchdown saved an otherwise rough start for the Chiefs, and that second score was a split-second decision away from an all-but-certain Super Bowl MVP award for a LB few were thinking about coming into the big game. Believe it or not, that huge Bolton play wasn't all that unusual regarding Super Bowls.
We've seen an incredible 22 touchdowns scored by the defensive side of the ball in Super Bowl history, with at least one defensive TD in 19 of the 58 Super Bowls.
That's almost one in every three Super Bowls! Think about that. Do you expect five defensive touchdowns on a typical Sunday slate with 15 games? Not even close.
For whatever reason, the Super Bowl is an anomaly. Perhaps it's the league's best defenses with extra time to prepare, or maybe desperate teams with nothing left to lose in the year's final game that put the ball a little more up for grabs than usual. Whatever the reason, it just keeps happening!
Bolton's touchdown was the first by a defensive player in six Super Bowls, but before that, we saw an incredible 12 defensive touchdowns in the 17-game stretch between Super Bowl XXXV and Super Bowl LI.
Think of those 17 games as your favorite NFL team's regular season — now imagine you watched that season and saw 12 defensive scores in just your team's games! What a wild year that would be.
Betting a Defensive Touchdown in Eagles vs. Chiefs
That's why I always bet on a defensive touchdown in the Super Bowl.
Year after year, regardless of the teams playing or any matchup on the board, this is a blind bet. The odds are just never priced correctly.
Nothing about this particular matchup would suggest a defensive touchdown. These teams turned the ball over just 14 and 15 times all season, taking great care of the ball. Neither offense allowed a defensive touchdown all season.
But guess what? Most teams that make the Super Bowl take care of the ball, and these touchdowns happen anyway.
So how do we bet it?
At FanDuel, we can bet on a Philadelphia Defense anytime touchdown at +750 or a Kansas City Defense score at +700. At first glance, that looks much better than what appears to be the same bets at DraftKings priced instead at +550 and +600.
But be careful, and pay attention to the details. At FanDuel, we're betting on only a defensive score. At DraftKings, we're betting on Philadelphia D/ST, which is a defensive or special teams score. And though this isn't a special teams angle for me, we have seen 13 special teams TDs in the Super Bowl, including eight in the last three decades, so we shouldn't overlook those extra outs.
If you want to just keep things simple and clean, you can bet on either team to score a defensive or special teams touchdown at +260 at bet365. That's an implied 27.8%, compared to an implied price of about +300 by playing both bets separately without special teams at FanDuel. You can bet just a defensive touchdown by either team at +320 at BetRivers.
All of those bets are significant +EV based on Super Bowl history, with 22 defensive touchdowns in 58 Super Bowls implying a 37.9% chance of a score. But we can bet even smarter.
Out of those 22 scores by the defense, all but three of them came from the winning team.
That makes sense, right? In a game between two of the league's top teams, often with the teams priced like this one as a near coin flip on the moneyline, a weird bounce of an oblong ball and an unexpected free seven points for one team have a huge chance of swinging the game.
The winning Super Bowl team has scored a defensive touchdown in a whopping 16 of 58 Super Bowls. That's 27.6% of the time — more than one in every four Super Bowls!
If you cut out the unlikely scenario of a defensive score in a losing effort, we can really zero in on value by placing two SGP bets:
- Chiefs D/ST anytime TD & Chiefs ML (+850, DraftKings)
- Eagles D/ST anytime TD & Eagles ML (+900, DraftKings)
And yes, we're playing both angles!
These defensive scores are unpredictable and can swing the game. Playing both angles together gives us a combined bet at +387, which implies 20.5% odds, and that gives us almost a 35% edge on Super Bowl history.
But if a defensive player does score a touchdown… could he also win Super Bowl MVP?
Defenders Can — And Do! — Win Super Bowl MVP
Defenders can and do win Super Bowl MVP, and a lot more often than you'd think!
We've seen 10 defensive players win MVP. Two of them won it as co-MVPs, but even so, that's nine defensive MVPs in 58 Super Bowls or 15.5%. That's almost once every six Super Bowls!
In fact, more defenders have won Super Bowl MVP than receivers or running backs.
That fact might encourage you to sprinkle on one of the game's defensive stars as an unlikely MVP pick.
Kansas City's Chris Jones is the top name on the board, priced around +6000, with Philadelphia's Jalen Carter not far behind. Those two guys are the two these offenses will have spent weeks scheming around, and there's little doubt they're the best defenders on the field.
But the best defenders don't necessarily win Super Bowl MVP. Jones and Carter combined for just 12.5 sacks all season. We're looking for splash plays, likely a turnover or even a touchdown. Those plays can come from anywhere and everywhere on the defense, quite often not the star players.
Rather than get too aggressive and pinpoint a winner, this is a good spot for us to just play the entire field — all 11 starters on both sides, plus any backups rotating in, anyone that can get their hands on a bouncing oblong football and make a big play.
We can bet any defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP at +1500 at both FanDuel and ESPN Bet. That's 6.3% implied, compared to the 15.5% chance historically. That's a huge edge in our favor, but we can do ourselves even better.
At FanDuel, we can bet on the specific position of the Super Bowl MVP, with defensive lineman listed at +4400, linebacker at +7000, and defensive back at +9000. If we split our bet evenly on all three of those outcomes, we still get every defender on the board at an implied combined bet of +2014, or 4.7%.
Now we're getting over triple the value on our bet! And that's why we bet on a defensive Super Bowl MVP every time, regardless of the matchup.
If you want to sprinkle on a few specific players as long shots, your best bet is leaving the stars behind at their short prices and looking further down the board.
Three of the four defensive MVPs this century have been linebackers. That makes sense. Linebackers are right in the middle of all the action, especially in a game where the Eagles will be expected to run early and often while the Chiefs should throw a ton of passes.
I'll take a small MVP sprinkle on three long-shot linebackers.
First, let's start with Nick Bolton at +40000 (Caesars). He nearly won this thing already last Super Bowl against the Eagles, had he gotten that second touchdown! He averages 8.5 tackles a game and is a threat for an occasional sack or interception splash play.
Second is Philadelphia's Nolan Smith at +30000 (BetMGM). Smith leads all NFL players in sacks this postseason with four, and he's recorded at least one sack in five of his last six games. With their lackluster tackle play, the Chiefs have struggled with protection off the edge all season, so Smith could make a big play.
Last, how about a nibble on Drue Tranquill? He was second on the Chiefs in tackles on the season and plays about 75% of the snaps, and a player that involved in the game simply shouldn't be priced at +100000 at BetRivers — equally as long as both punters and longer than some offensive linemen.
Defense wins championships, and in the Super Bowl, defense turns profits for bettors, too. Place your bets and wait for the big play.
So, in summary, here are my bets:
- Chiefs D/ST anytime TD & Chiefs ML (0.5 units, +850, DraftKings)
- Eagles D/ST anytime TD & Eagles ML (0.5 units, +900, DraftKings)
- Defensive lineman to win Super Bowl MVP (0.25 units, +4400, FanDuel)
- Linebacker to win Super Bowl MVP (0.25 units, +7000, FanDuel)
- Defensive back to win Super Bowl MVP (0.25 units, +9000, FanDuel)
- Nick Bolton to win Super Bowl MVP (0.1 units, +40000, Caesars)
- Nolan Smith to win Super Bowl MVP (0.1 units, +30000, BetMGM)
- Drue Tranquill to win Super Bowl MVP (0.05 units, +100000, BetRivers)
