Since the dawn of gambling, the idea of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal.
So, since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have an Eagles vs. Commanders parlay tonight.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate given the tangled web of correlation between each leg. However, they are fun. And just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit in Week 7 and against last week, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Thursday Night Football parlay for Week 11 on DraftKings.
Eagles vs. Commanders Same Game Parlay
- Under 48.5 (-108)
- Saquon Barkley Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
- Jayden Daniels Anytime Touchdown (+220)
Eagles vs. Commanders Parlay Odds: +1500 | $10 Bet Wins $150
Parlay Leg 1: The Eagles-Commanders Under
Both offenses in the Thursday Night Football matchup seem to be hitting their strides at the right time. Philly has scored at least 28 points in four straight games, while Washington is tied for third in points per game at 29.
However, a big chunk of that can be attributed to their schedules. The Eagles' last four games have all been against defenses that rank 26th or worse in DVOA. Prior to that, they had a three-game span averaging just 17 points per contest against three teams that rank between 18th and 23rd in defensive DVOA.
Washington's defense isn't anything special, but they're much closer to the latter group of mediocre units than the former group of awful ones.
On the other side of the ball, the Eagles have a top-10 overall defense, better than any unit the Commanders have faced all season. That should take a big chunk of Washington's 29 PPG average.
Plus, it's an outdoor divisional game in November on a Thursday night; those are all good signs for the under. On top of that, these teams combine to average around 63 minutes in time of possession. That means about three minutes will be "lost" from their typical game script.
This total has risen after opening at 45.5. Ideally we'll be able to catch an even better number closer to game time, but if you want to get the bet in now, the 48.5 at slightly reduced juice works just fine.
Parlay Leg 2: Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards
Saquon Barkley's usage has been fairly consistent this season, with the star running back a big part of the Eagles offense regardless of the game script.
However, how he's used changes depending on the score board. He has at least two catches in every game this season, except the 20+ point wins against the Cowboys and the Bengals. They're going to get Barkley the ball one way or the other, but more of it will come through the air if the game is close. With the Eagles favored by 3.5 points, it should be relatively back and forth throughout the contest.
Two catches doesn't guarantee he clears this line, but he's averaging about 7.5 yards per catch. Odds are Barkley gets there with two or more catches, but he also has the explosive ability to get there on just one.
Plus, given that this is anti-correlated with the under, we're getting a bit better odds on the parlay as a whole. This is one of the top props in our NFL Props Tool this week.
Parlay Leg 3: Jayden Daniels Prop
Action PRO subscribers also get full access to our anytime TD projections for every NFL game. The top options this week are both Commanders running backs, but that's likely to change assuming Brian Robinson returns this week.
After that, the best choices are Daniels and the Eagles' De'Vonta Smith. Marshon Lattimore being out for the Commanders probably frees up more targets for A.J. Brown, so I'm a bit wary of Smith.
All of that brings me to Daniels. He has four rushing touchdowns in 10 games this season, and at least one red-zone carry in all but one. The Eagles' top-10 pass rush should flush him out of the pocket frequently here, which is another reason to bet on him to run one in.
Plus, we're getting great odds since it's paired with the under. There's room for plenty of touchdowns in a game that stays under 48.5, so I'll take the +1500 odds.
Full Eagles vs. Commanders Parlay Odds: +1500 | $10 Bet Wins $150
