DeVonta Smith
ATD +200 (FanDuel)
Smith torched the Commanders earlier this season to the tune of eight receptions for 169 yards and a touchdown.
Washington has allowed nine touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season, but eight of those have come inside the red zone. Five of those nine were from inside the 10-yard line.
Pick: DeVonta Smith Anytime Touchdown Scorer |
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Although A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert have more red-zone targets than Smith, both of the Heisman Trophy winner’s touchdowns this season have come inside the 10. In fact, all but one of his seven career touchdowns were scored in the red zone.
Washington has only given up one touchdown to a tight end this season and ranks in the top five in receptions and receiving yards allowed to the position. That’s why I’m passing on Goedert.
With how good the Commanders run defense is (only four rushing touchdowns allowed this season), Philadelphia may need to pass more closer to the goal line. That’ll help Smith’s chances of scoring.
If you're not already convinced, today is Smith's 24th birthday.
Taylor Heinicke
ATD +800 (PointsBet)
Now, time for two Commanders long shots.
In three starts this season, Heinicke has run for one touchdown with two red-zone carries. He scored his touchdown against the Colts, which has a stout run defense.
This isn’t overwhelming data, but overall, Heinicke had 11 red-zone carries in 16 games last season, which ranked 10th among quarterbacks. That means if there’s an opportunity, Heinicke likely won’t just stand in the pocket.
The Eagles’ loss of defensive tackle Jordan Davis was felt immediately in their last game. Philadelphia allowed Dameon Pierce to run for 139 yards on 27 carries, making its once formidable run defense look penetrable.
The toll of the 2022 season seems to be catching up to the Philly run defense, which is allowing 5.2 yards per carry this season. Part of the reason why that’s the case is that they generally have a healthy lead, which causes opponents to abandon the run.
Brian Robinson Jr. is +300 at some sports books, but I’d rather bank on Heinicke to find paydirt on Monday night.
Logan Thomas
ATD +900 (PointsBet)
I understand the shift in Thomas’ odds because of his lack of involvement lately, but this feels like an overreaction.
Entering Week 10, the highest Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds for Thomas this season was +475, which was partially because of injury. Now, he seems to be fully healthy and ready to regain a larger role in the offense.
Thomas has played at least 65% of snaps in every game he’s started this season. Although he only finished with two catches for five yards in Week 3 against the Eagles, he did have a red-zone target and carry.
For what it’s worth, he caught a touchdown in both games against the Eagles back in 2020, which is the last time he played against them due to injury.
Eagles cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry will likely be locking down Washington’s perimeter threats, so it makes sense to look toward Thomas.
