Eagles vs. Cowboys Odds & Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Eagles +4 or Better |
| Cowboys -4 or Better |
| Ezekiel Elliott Over 16.5 Receiving Yards |
Eagles +4 or Better
Stuckey: I believe this Philadelphia defense remains undervalued in the market, which is why I’ve seen value on the Eagles and the under in three straight weeks.
Defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon’s zone-heavy, multiple scheme will confuse opposing quarterbacks and prevent explosive plays, forcing teams to put together long drives to put points up on the board. The Cowboys offense is certainly capable of doing just that, but they are not at full strength.
The reliable Michael Gallup recently hit IR, while Amari Cooper is dealing with a rib injury. Without great depth at the position, Cooper not playing at his usual level means Philadelphia could focus on simply taking away CeeDee Lamb. Not to mention how right tackle La’El Collins’ suspension has left the offensive line vulnerable.
These teams do both prefer to play on the faster side, but the total is a touch high and the spread should be no higher than Dallas -3, especially with home-field advantage dwindling with each passing season. Also, with an extra day to prepare, that gives an even bigger edge to Philadelphia since I see its coaching staff as clearly superior.
I’m taking the points in a game I fully expect to come down to the wire. I also dabbled on the under at 51.5 or better, but smaller as I still continue to gather data on penalties, crowd impact and fourth-down tendencies early on in the season.
You can read my full analysis of this matchup here, but I’m taking the Eagles at +4 or better.
Cowboys -4 or Better
Brandon Anderson: The NFC East is looking more competitive than expected in what is suddenly an interesting division battle.
The Cowboys are a last-second Bucs field goal away from an impressive 2-0 start with road wins over the Buccaneers and Chargers. Even so, the Cowboys have looked good. Dak Prescott is throwing the ball all over the field to Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb while Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard are finding running room behind a revitalized offensive line. The Cowboys defense has also been at least decent with rookie Micah Parsons emerging as a real difference maker.
The Eagles have been impressive, too.
Philadelphia is winning in the trenches with its offensive line and defensive front seven dominating and healthy — for now. Already that health is starting to buckle with DE Brandon Graham's season-ending Achilles injury and OL Brandon Brooks' pectoral injury that landed him on IR. Nick Sirianni has his team believing, though I'm not certain I believe in Jalen Hurts yet. And I'm not sure Sirianni does, either.
The Eagles are hiding Hurts a bit, relying on the defense to keep things close and hoping he can do just enough, but I'm not sure that'll do the trick against a high-octane offense like Dallas. Can the Eagles score enough to win this? They had 32 in the season opener, but only got there because they had three second-half scoring drives starting inside Atlanta territory, and they had only three points at home against San Francisco until the final minutes.
The Cowboys are too talented not to score, and I don't think the Eagles can keep up.
Winner gets pole position in the division. If you think that's the Eagles, your best play might be on them to win the NFC East. An upset here would put them in great position.
The home team has won five straight in this division rivalry, and 14 straight rivalry games have covered this line. That means we just need to pick a winner, so I'll stick with the more talented and explosive team playing at home for the first time in 2021 — though this is only a half-unit play for me.
Ezekiel Elliott Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
Mike Randle: Despite ceding rushing work, Ezekiel Elliott has still stayed involved in the passing game. He has averaged 3.5 receptions per game in each of the past two years, yet has only four total receptions through two games.
Elliott has been particularly active in the passing games at home. Since the 2018 season, he has averaged over five targets and four receptions per game at AT&T Stadium.
Entering Week 3, the Eagles have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to opposing running backs. We project Elliott for 21.6 receiving yards, which is 31% higher than the 16.5-yard projection on FanDuel.
