Eagles at Dolphins Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Eagles -10
- Over/Under: 44.5
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
Odds as of Friday afternoon.
The Miami Dolphins are once again double-digit underdogs.
This team continues to have the lowest expectations, though is only 5-6 against the spread and is attracting 40% of tickets as a 10-point dog against the Philadelphia Eagles. But where's the true value on this spread?
Our experts analyze every angle of this matchup, complete with a staff pick.
Eagles-Dolphins Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Dolphins
Every player on the Dolphins' injury report was able to practice in a limited fashion, so it's likely most are trending toward playing. The two to monitor could be Allen Hurns (ankle) and Albert Wilson (hip/chest).
The Eagles have been a mess for a while, but Nelson Agholor (knee), Jordan Howard (shoulder) and Alshon Jeffery (ankle) are all at least getting in limited practices. Agholor and Jeffery are the most likely to return as Howard has yet to be cleared for contact.
Additionally, Zach Ertz has missed back-to-back practices with a hamstring injury. He reportedly played through this issue last week, so it's possible he does it again. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Friday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Eagles Running Backs vs. Dolphins Linebackers
It’s an utter pleasure each week to write about how bad the Dolphins linebackers are. Almost regardless of opponent, they’re outmatched.
The Dolphins are No. 29 in rush defense and No. 32 in pass defense against running backs (per Football Outsiders' DVOA metric). Lots of players contribute to the vastness of the Dolphins' back-centric defensive ineptitude, but linebackers Jerome Baker and Sam Eguavoen seem especially to blame, as evidenced by their Pro Football Focus grades.
- Jerome Baker: 44.2 overall grade, 36.1 run defense, 56.9 coverage
- Sam Eguavoen: 42.4 overall grade, 40.5 run defense, 53.3 coverage
Baker and Eguavoen are preeminently exploitable.
A grinding between-the-tackles bruiser, Howard is comparable in skill set and style to several of the backs who have gone off against the Dolphins this season: Mark Ingram (14-107-2), Sony Michel (21-83-1), Adrian Peterson (23-118-0), James Conner (23-145-1) and Nick Chubb (21-106-1).
No. 2 back Miles Sanders has scored just two touchdowns this season, but he’s currently on pace for 1,125.8 scrimmage yards and has flashed as a receiver with his 75% catch rate and 9.4 yards per target. He looks like he’s developing into a future Pro Bowler.
And No. 3 back Jay Ajayi — although he was just recently re-signed off the street — is a capable runner with knowledge of the offense. He’s not far removed from back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns, and he’s in a #RevengeGame spot. Ajayi tends to run like there’s no tomorrow anyway, but in this case, he’s likely to play with even more ferocity.
Against Baker and Eguavoen, the Eagles backs could combine for 200 yards and multiple touchdowns.— Matthew Freedman
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Eagles -10.5
- Projected Total: 45.5
Expert Pick
Stuckey: Eagles 1H -4/Game -10
Time to go back to the well with a Dolphins fade.
Just like the past two weeks against the Bills and Browns, I’m fading Miami by taking Philly to cover the first half (anything under 5 is fine) and full game (anything 10 or better).
This Dolphins roster is historically bad and much worse than the team we saw earlier in the season.
Let's start on offense.
You have to give credit to Ryan Fitzpatrick for some of the numbers he's putting up considering the lack of talent he has around him. He's working with a horrific offensive line and a historically-bad running game that’s averaging a league-worst 3.1 yards per rush — and that includes time with Mark Walton and Kenyan Drake, who are both no longer with the team.
The receiving corps has also been depleted with injuries as it's pretty much now just DeVante Parker on the outside.
I don’t expect the Dolphins to do much on offense against an Eagles defense that has some of the best metrics over the best month, holding four straight opponents to fewer than 17 points for the first time in 10 years. The secondary has improved significantly since the return of Jalen Mills, and the defensive line should have its way with that poor offensive line.
Meanwhile, the Eagles offense has been severely limited, primarily due to a lack of deep threat with the absence of DeSean Jackson. However, they've also dealt with a number of impactful injuries on the outside and along the offensive line. But it looks like the offensive line should be at full strength and they'll be getting back a number of weapons on the outside (the latest reports on Ertz, Agholor and Jefferey look promising).
Ultimately, this is a very poor Dolphins defense that shouldn’t get much push at the line of scrimmage and have lost a ton in the secondary. This is a get-right game for the Eagles who should take out some of their recent frustrations against a reeling Miami team. I’m laying the points.
