Texans
No Touchdown Scorer (+550, BetMGM)
We’re going to take a swing on the Eagles defense locking down the Texans offense in primetime.
The Eagles defense has been fantastic this season, ranking in the top three in the NFL in interceptions (10), sacks (23) and forced fumbles (six).
Philadelphia has given up seven touchdowns to wide receivers and tight ends this season, which ranks fourth. Dameon Pierce is an impressive rookie RB1 for the Texans, but the Eagles have allowed just three touchdowns to opposing RB1s this season (Ezekiel Elliott and two to Jamaal Williams).
The game script might not help Houston here either. The Eagles are averaging 21 points per game in the first half this season, which is the most in the NFL. If Houston faces a big deficit, it may abandon the run to try to keep up.
Eagles -14 | Texans +14
At tight end for the Texans, it’s like shooting darts. All three of O.J. Howard, Brevin Jordan and Jordan Akins play less than 50% of snaps, and none of them has a TD catch since Week 2.
Houston is 30th in the NFL in third-down conversion rate and 31st on first down. If the Texans score, it’s on a broken play or like last week, when Dameon Pierce scored a garbage-time TD in the final minute of a blowout loss. We can’t bank on that.
If you’re not convinced already, the Texans have not scored a touchdown in six of Davis Mills’ 19 career starts, two of which have come this season. It would have been three if not for the aforementioned Pierce TD last week.
At +550 at BetMGM, the implied odds are 15.38%. Houston hasn’t scored a touchdown in 31.2% of Mills’ starts in the NFL.
Jalen Hurts
Rush for 2 Touchdowns (+500, FanDuel)
On the other side, which features a good offense, we’re betting someone to score twice.
Hurts is first in the NFL in red-zone rushing attempts, and he’s especially dangerous inside the 5-yard line. There, he has 10 carries and five touchdowns this season.
Not only is he great, but this matchup is against a Texans run defense that has routinely been lit up. Houston has allowed the opposing RB1 to score two or more touchdowns in four of its last five games.
Miles Sanders could score here, but we can’t guarantee that he’ll get every snap around the goal line. You know who will be out there? Hurts.
