In the most lopsided matchup of Week 9, the Philadelphia Eagles head to Houston as 14-point favorites against the Texans.
The Eagles have yet to lose in seven games and enter on short rest after a 22-point beatdown of the Steelers on the back of A.J. Brown’s three-touchdown performance. The Texans, meanwhile, have dropped two straight and have just one win.
Does Houston have any chance at slowing down the Philadelphia offense that has starred in the first half of 2022, or will Jalen Hurts continue his MVP campaign with another dominant win?
Here’s a same-game parlay ahead of Thursday’s game.
Under 45.5 (-115)
I am confident that the Eagles will score as every edge is in their favor in this matchup. But at 14, the spread is too risky and opens the option for a backdoor cover. Instead, I’m taking the under here.
Philadelphia’s offense is fifth in rush DVOA while Houston’s defense ranks dead last. The Eagles are going to get whatever they want on the ground, and that’s perfect for an offense predicated on its quarterback’s mobility.
More rushes result in the clock constantly running, and with a 14-point spread, we could see Philly take its foot off the gas pedal in the second half after mounting a big lead.
But I like the under so much because Philadelphia’s defense matches up perfectly against Davis Mills and the Texans offense. We could very well see a shutout on Thursday.
The Eagles defense ranks second in pass DVOA while Houston is 29th on the offensive end. They should find some success on the ground with Dameon Pierce, but in what is expected to be a trailing game script throughout, rushes will be few and far between.
The Texans have scored 14 points or fewer in three of their seven matchups, while the Eagles defense has held better offenses — the Vikings and Commanders — to under 10 this season. This has all the makings of a blowout win where the under clears sweat-free.
Expect Philadelphia to take a commanding lead before slowing down and churning the clock on the offensive end while the defense feasts on Mills.
From a trends perspective, the under is 16-6 in the last 22 Thursday Night Football games. In Mills’ lone TNF matchup, he scored just nine points against the Panthers.
Davis Mills
Under 217.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Correlated to the play on the under, Mills should struggle on Thursday night.
I already mentioned that the Eagles’ strength is pass defense and that Houston’s success will come on the ground behind Pierce. Nose tackle Jordan Davis is also out for Philly, weakening the rush defense in the trenches.
In a game where the Eagles will dominate the time of possession battle, Mills should go under this number barring a few explosive passes.
Nico Collins (groin) has already been ruled out, and Brandin Cooks’ (wrist, personal) status remains in question. Cooks was not traded at the deadline and did not practice all week.
If both don’t play, that’s 43.8 percent of Mills’ yardage this year gone. Only one other receiver has more than 70 receiving yards — Chris Moore — this season. And even if Cooks suits up, he could be used as a decoy given the riff between him and the coaching staff/front office.
The Eagles defense allows just over 200 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks and has held them under 200 yards in six of seven games this season. Mills has also been held under 152 yards in two of his last three games and now enters on short rest with a shorthanded receiving corps.
This is a disaster waiting to happen.
Devonta Smith
Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The stock couldn’t be lower for Devonta Smith entering Thursday night. A.J. Brown is fresh off a three-touchdown performance against Pittsburgh while Smith has just 67 receiving yards over the last two weeks.
But this is a great buy low spot for Smith. The Eagles should be controlling possession throughout, and with their expected success on the ground, that opens up opportunities for play action and more shots downfield.
Smith also plays the second-most snaps on the team behind Hurts — 92.8 percent — and gets 7.3 targets per game. While his aDOT has dropped to 4.5, his speed and ability to break off big plays makes him a constant threat in an already-dominant Philadelphia offense.
In the Eagles’ only two blowouts this season, Smith went over this number easily. He finished with 80 yards against the Vikings before racking up 169 the following week in Washington.
I expect another big game for Smith despite the Eagles’ propensity to run, and he could hit this number before the first half even ends. With all eyes on Brown, the door has opened for Smith to slip in and bounce back against a struggling Texans team.
The Parlay (+487)
- Under 45.5 (-115)
- Davis Mills Under 217.5 Passing Yards (-113)
- DeVonta Smith Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
