The Houston Texans (11-7) and Kansas City Chiefs (16-1) face off in the NFL Divisional Round.
Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. EST on Saturday from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The game will be broadcast live on ABC/ESPN.
The Chiefs are favored by 8.5 points with the game total set at 41.5 points scored. The Chiefs are -455 favorites to win outright, while the Texans are +350 to pull off the upset.
Houston Texas vs. Kansas City Chiefs Expert Pick
The last time these two teams met it was a defensive battle that saw the Chiefs win 27-19. The spread for that game was Chiefs -3.5, but now it's as high as Chiefs -9 according to our NFL odds page. It was a tight game that saw some late Texans mistakes put it out of their reach.
The Chiefs benched their starters in Week 18 and had a bye last week. This could cause major rust for the Chiefs today, which will only benefit Houston.
The Texans are a very well-balanced team but did have some really rough performances throughout the season. They got thrashed by the Ravens on Christmas, but that could have been the wake-up call they needed. Houston sat most of its starters in Week 18 before delivering a very impressive performance last week in the Wild Card Round against the Chargers.
I base my analysis on spreads, and it makes no sense the difference in lines between these teams' first matchup and now. Given the big discrepancy between matchups that took place just four weeks apart, I see a lot of value on the road underdog here.
I expect the Texans to control the ball on offense and limit Patrick Mahomes through the air. I also think the Chiefs should be on upset alert today given how well Houston played defensively last week.
I expect the Texans to cover the inflated number today.
My Pick: Texans +9 (Caesars)
