Action’s Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, reveals the four biggest edges based on his Week 4 NFL Power Ratings. He has a 400-299-4 (57%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action App, where you can follow all of his picks.
Expert NFL Picks For Week 4
| Pick |
|---|
| Vikings +2 vs. Browns |
| Giants +7 at Saints |
| Broncos +1 vs. Ravens |
| IND-MIA Under 42.5 |
Vikings +2
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
The Vikings are the perfect "buy low" team right now. They are 1-2 on the season despite having a lead (24:08 average game time) more than trailing (22:04). Much of their bad luck came from losing the first two games in the final seconds (Week 1, they lost via a field goal in OT. Week 2, they lost via a missed 37-yard field goal at the end of regulation). Then, in Week 3, they beat the Seahawks in convincing fashion 30-17.
Injuries have also held back the Vikings early in the season. However, LB Anthony Barr and first-rounder LT Christian Darrisaw could be making their season debut this week. Dalvin Cook is also looking likely to return after logging three straight practices.
The Browns are a top-10 team, but the market seems to be overreacting to their 26-6 win over the Bears. All of the attention was on their defense sacking Justin Fields nine times. However, Cleveland’s offensive line allowed 18 total pressures that resulted in Baker Mayfield being sacked five times. Normally the Browns have arguably the best o-line in the league. But considering Jedrick Wills, JC Tretter and Jack Conklin are playing through injuries right now, they haven't been as dominant.
I am projecting this matchup as a true pick-em and like the Vikings getting points, considering they should trend up in the near term, while the Browns may struggle until their o-line gets back to 100% health.
Giants +7
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Let's take a step back and realize that this is a matchup between Daniel Jones and Jameis Winston, two of the more volatile QBs in the game. Therefore I am already interested in getting seven points in a matchup that could go either way.
The Giants are the unluckiest 0-3 team in the league, considering they have led (23:23 avg game time) more than they have trailed (22:08) this season. Sure, some of that could be due to Joe Judge being a below-average coach, but the market is underrating the Giants being able to keep this game close.
Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton have been ruled out, which means Jones will be without two of his top pass catchers. However, Jones rarely has all of his pass-catchers at his disposal, so this may not be too big of an impact this week.
The Saints suffered a massive loss, with LT Terron Armstead expected to miss multiple weeks with an elbow injury. Center Erik McCoy still hasn't practiced due to the calf injury he sustained in Week 1. If he remains out of the lineup again this week, the Saints will struggle to protect Winston. The market seems to be overlooking this factor, which is why I love getting the Giants at +7.
Broncos +1
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
The Broncos have cruised to a 3-0 start, thanks largely to their laughably easy schedule to date (Giants, Jaguars and Jets). However, we can't penalize them based on their easy schedule because they have looked dominant on both sides of the ball and rank fifth in total DVOA. I like them as home underdogs against a Ravens team that is still chasing after its old self.
IND-MIA Under 42.5
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith have both been ruled out for Week 4. It's a massive blow to the Colts, considering Carson Wentz is attempting to play through injuries to both ankles. His mobility is limited right now, which makes the offensive line injuries even more of a factor. I expect the Colts to lean on the run game and their defense here.
The Dolphins should operate a similar game plan as they will be starting back up QB Jacoby Brissett again this week. Brissett's 6.6 aDot ranks seventh-lowest on the season and I expect the Dolphins to continue running a conservative, clock-killing offense with him under center. I'm projecting this total closer to 40 and would bet it down to 41.
