Chiefs vs. Jaguars
While this game certainly warrants the highest total of the week, I think the under is offering some value.
The Chiefs will be getting defensive lineman Chris Jones back, which will give the defense a massive boost. Opponents averaged 1.5 fewer yards per rush when he was on the field last season. He also generated the third-highest pressure rate of all interior linemen last year and will be going up against a Jags offensive line that is banged up on the interior and struggled last week against the Colts.
Kansas City will also be getting back Travis Kelce. That would be a massive boost to the offense, but there's a chance he isn’t quite 100% recovered from his knee injury, which could make him a bit less valuable than usual, while Jones is 100% healthy since he’s coming back from a holdout.
Adrian Hill will be the ref for this game and the under has gone 30-17 in games he’s officiated since 2020. There is an actual reason for this: His crew tends to call offensive holding at a higher rate (one of the best plays for an under).
The Chiefs routinely finish with a top-10 rate in offensive holding, mainly because of Mahomes' playing style of extending plays and making it tricky for the O-line to maintain its blocking assignments. The line is also probably content taking a 10-yard penalty instead of letting Mahomes take a huge hit.
We may also see some rain, possibly heavy at times in this game, with it being hot/humid. The weather may slow down two elite passing attacks.
I’m projecting this closer to 49.5 and love the fact we are getting one of the more valuable key numbers when it comes to totals in 51.
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