The Philadelphia Eagles are 7.5-point favorites against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, and that line will play a prominent role in selecting our top prop picks for this NFC East matchup.
The fact the the Eagles have essentially erased all running backs not named Saquon Barkley this season will also come into play.
Here are our results on the year so far:
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 176-85 (66%)
- Article picks : 27-9 (75%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 197-140 (58%)
Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott
Under 81.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
At this point, I'm comfortable blindly betting the under on any running back facing the Eagles, but this high number is a nice bonus.
If you'd bet the under on rushing yards for every running back against the Eagles, you'd be a prop sharp with a tidy 7-1 record. The only exception would have been Saquon Barkley's 130 yards.
No other running back has gone for more than 42 yards.
Not only are teams not able to run on the Eagles, but they've mostly given up trying.
- Their 405 total rushing yards against (50.6 per game) is best in the league.
- Their 108 total attempts surrendered (13.5 per game) is by far the best mark, 23 percent better than second-place Washington (16.6 per game).
Elliott has averaged 85 yards on 18.6 carries this year, but his Cowboys are big road underdogs. Even if the rushing volume is somehow there, it'll take a special effort from Elliot to overcome this number.
I'd play this number to about 77.5, but I doubt it dips below 80.
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott
Over 19.5 Completions (-114)
The Eagles play with a ton of pace, running the fifth-most plays per game (67.8).
That forces teams to pivot pass happy if they want to keep up, and we see that reflected in Philadelphia's 25.8 pass completions per game against, sixth-most in the league.
Prescott may only be averaging 18.6 completions per game, but he's had at least 21 in both of his past two games. The aforementioned spread, combined with the Eagles dominant run defense, suggests a game script that thrusts Prescott and his newest weapon Amari Cooper into starring roles.
Quarterbacks facing the Eagles have gone 6-2 on the over for this season, beating their betting lines by 3.6 completions, on average.
With Sean Koener projecting exactly 20 completions for Prescott, I wouldn't mess with this number too much, but I would pay up to -122.
