Panthers vs Falcons Odds
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 41.5 -108o / -112u | +122 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 41.5 -108o / -112u | -144 |
The Thursday night game isn't always the most aesthetically pleasing spectacle of the NFL week, and Week 10 is a great example of that.
This isn't the sexiest primetime matchup of the season, but that won't stop me from finding a Falcons vs. Panthers pick.
Panthers vs. Falcons Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Panthers and Falcons match up statistically:
Falcons vs. Panthers DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 8 | 28 | |
| Pass DVOA | 12 | 28 | |
| Rush DVOA | 4 | 23 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 31 | 29 | |
| Pass DVOA | 32 | 29 | |
| Rush DVOA | 16 | 22 | |
Over 41.5 | Under 41.5
When the Falcons Have the Ball
It’s pretty obvious what the Falcons’ offensive game plan will be in this game: impose their will with an extremely run-heavy attack.
A lot of Atlanta’s success this season has been because its offensive line has been playing at a very high level, ranking sixth in adjusted line yards according to Football Outsiders.
However, starting left guard Wlijah Wilkinson suffered a knee injury in Week 8 that will keep him out about four weeks. Then, backup LG Matt Hennessy suffered a knee injury last week that will keep him out for at least four weeks. The latter is a shame, considering Hennessy filled in nicely.
It looks like Colby Gossett will get the start at LG, despite being listed on the Falcons' depth chart at RG. It definitely makes sense, though, given the other option is undrafted free agent Ryan Neuzil, who has never played in the NFL at left guard. The move makes sense, but the constant shuffling on the offensive line is suboptimal.
Having to go with a third-string left guard who has no NFL experience could cause enough disruption for an offense that has relied on solid offensive line play (in the run game) all season.
When the Panthers Have the Ball
The chariot finally turned into a pumpkin for P.J. Walker last week. He followed his career-best performance in Week 8 with the worst of his NFL career in Week 9. Walker was benched for Baker Mayfield at halftime of a blowout loss against the Bengals, but interim head coach Steve Wilks is going to give him another chance.
Walker torched this Falcons defense in Week 8 for 317 passing yards, so I expect him to rebound on Thursday night.
The Falcons defense, which ranks 29th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, will still be without its top-two cornerbacks in A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward. I expect Carolina will be able to move the ball with ease against the Falcons.
The Panthers offense is also pretty sneaky because even in a scenario that sees Walker struggles again, Carolina at least has Baker Mayfield to turn to, which offers the offense a pretty high floor.
Betting Picks
I expect Walker and the Panthers offense to produce a bounce-back game against the Falcons this week.
Over the past three seasons, teams coming off of a loss of 20 or more points have gone 67-49 (58%) against the spread (ATS). The market tends to overreact to a blowout loss, and I think that is the case here, allowing us to get the key number of 3 for the home team.
The Falcons offense could feel the effects of having to start a third-stringer and undrafted free agent making his NFL debut at left guard, especially considering they have relied on a run-heavy offense that has been fueled by solid offensive line play. The Panthers defense is also much better on paper than their 28th rank in DVOA would suggest.
I'd be sure to get the key number of +3. Use our NFL odds page to get live odds as they may swing throughout the day so you can get the key number, or you can play an alternate line somewhere like BetMGM.
