In a rematch from Atlanta’s overtime win two weeks ago, the Falcons hit the road to face their division rival Carolina Panthers.
In a Hail Mary-like throw with 12 seconds left on the clock, D.J. Moore hauled in a 62-yard pass to tie up the game at 34. He subsequently took off his helmet and was handed a penalty — one that set Carolina’s extra point back 15 yards. Eddy Pineiro missed the PAT and the potential game-winner in overtime as Atlanta escaped with a 37-34 win.
Now, the teams reunite for a divisional bout on Thursday Night Football. The Falcons (-2.5) enter as short favorites in a game that should see plenty of rain and heavy wind. The total has been on the decline due to upcoming weather reports.
Here’s a same-game parlay to get you through this battle between Marcus Mariota and P.J. Walker.
Panthers
Alt Spread +3.5 (-142)
I wouldn’t take last week’s disaster against Cincinnati into account. These are two pretty even teams, and given the home-field advantage, I believe the Panthers are undervalued here.
If there’s one team with which it’s easy to predict what it'll run on offense, it’s the Falcons. They are extremely run-heavy, rank fourth in rush DVOA this season and received an added boost with Cordarrelle Patterson returning off Injured Reserve last week.
The Panthers, meanwhile, have been fine in life after Christian McCaffrey. Against the Falcons a couple of weeks ago, D’Onta Foreman rushed for 118 yards on 26 carries. The team as a whole averaged 4.7 yards per rush, and Walker added 317 yards through the air.
Despite being benched at halftime last week, Walker was named the starter for Thursday. I expect a bounce-back performance against an abysmal Falcons defense that ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass.
Even if he is benched, Baker Mayfield should provide enough of an offensive boost to keep Carolina competitive.
In their first matchup, the Panthers outgained Atlanta, 478-406. I believe they are the better team here and should be prepared for the Atlanta rushing attack that will be starting a new left guard after both the starter and backup suffered injuries.
The trends also back Carolina here. Marcus Mariota is 0-3 in his three Thursday road games and is just 4-7 ATS on short rest (1-5 when on the road).
Cordarrelle Patterson
o54.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
As I’ve mentioned before, there aren’t many secrets when it comes to this Falcons offense. They love to run and keep the ball out of Mariota’s hands.
Patterson returned from a month-long IR stint and rushed 13 times for 44 yards. He was eased into action, seeing only 24 snaps — Tyler Allgeier had 23 and Caleb Huntley 13 — but his usage was extremely high.
That snap count should creep up even more this Thursday. Patterson is averaging 5.4 yards per rush, and he’s broken an 11+ yard rush all but last week. He draws another favorable matchup this week against a Panthers defense that is 23rd in rush DVOA.
The Falcons averaged 4.5 yards per rush a couple of weeks ago against Carolina. They ran the ball 37 times, and it was Huntley leading the way with 16 carries for 91 yards. The Panthers allowed multiple double-digit-yard plays on the ground, a perfect recipe for Patterson’s success.
Action Network projections have this number at 58, so there’s still some wiggle room between the current number and our projections. His over has been targeted heavily, as this number sat around 51 early Thursday morning.
Even in a negative game script, Atlanta loves to run the football, so I wouldn’t be too worried about Patterson cracking 60 yards.
Plus, there should be high winds and rain on Thursday night, even more of a reason to stick to a ground-and-pound approach for Arthur Smith and co.
Kyle Pitts
Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Kyle Pitts has done a complete 180 after a breakout rookie season, and it’s come because of a run-heavy offensive game plan. The versatile tight end has broken the 30-yard barrier just twice this season, but when he does, he explodes.
The last time he did that? His five-catch, 80-yard performance against Carolina two weeks ago.
On the bright side, Atlanta has been targeting Pitts a lot more over the last few games. Despite just two catches against Los Angeles, he was targeted seven times. In the win against Carolina, he had a season-high nine targets.
Given his 14.2 aDOT this season, Pitts likely needs just three receptions to break this number. He can easily cover half in one shot, too.
Pitts’ production has not been limited because of playing time. He is the second-most targeted receiver — by three targets per game to No. 3 Olamide Zaccheaus — and is the main route-running tight end.
In a game in which I believe Carolina ultimately wins outright, Atlanta will be forced to throw more. That favors Pitts, who has previous success against a Panthers defense that gives up an average of 46 yards per game to opposing tight ends.
The Parlay (+660)
- Carolina Panthers Alt Spread +3.5 (-142)
- C. Patterson o54.5 (-110)
- K. Pitts o37.5 (-110)
