Falcons at Texans Betting Picks & Odds
- Falcons Spread: +4
- Texans Spread: -4
- Falcons Moneyline: +171
- Texans Moneyline: -216
- Total: 49.5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
Odds as of Sunday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
The struggling Falcons haven't been able to defend the pass, and the Texans have a loaded offense featuring Deshaun Watson and arguably football's best group of wide receivers. If you can expect anything during Sunday's matchup, it's that more than a few points will be scored.
Read below for Sean Koerner’s projected odds, mismatches to note and our staff's favorite pick.
Falcons-Texans Injury Report
The only Falcons player who has been missing practice is OL Jamon Brown with his concussion. C Alex Mack (elbow) got banged up last week, but he returned to practice on Thursday with his elbow heavily taped.
In Houston, Kenny Stills got hurt last week and was limited in practice all week. His practice participation on Friday will be a strong indicator of his health heading into Week 5. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Texans Wide Receivers vs. Atlanta Pass Defense
This game could end up being Sunday’s biggest shootout. While Chiefs-Colts has the highest over/under of the week (56.5), the Texans passing game could erupt against a weak Falcons secondary.
The Falcons rank 21st in pass defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders. They allowed Marcus Mariota to throw for three touchdowns at home in Week 4 and have only defended nine passes as a team this season (fourth-worst in the league). To compound the problem, the Falcons pass rushers have logged just five sacks this season, which is second-worst in football.
Per PlayerProfiler, Watson has a 77.2% clean pocket completion percentage, eighth-best among quarterbacks. When Watson finds time, he can produce plenty of points with one of the best receiving units in the NFL.
Atlanta will have to stop All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, while Will Fuller (4.33 speed) has only narrowly missed connecting with Watson on major pass plays in each of the past three weeks.
This should concern an Atlanta pass defense that has allowed a 100.8 passer rating on average in each of their first four games.
The Falcons haven’t generated a consistent pass rush, and do not currently have a cornerback ranked in the top 40 in pass coverage at Pro Football Focus. The loss of safety Keanu Neal to a season-ending injury worsens their matchups against a Houston passing game loaded with playmakers.
The Falcons will need to bring their best defensive performance versus their toughest passing game opponent this season. — Mike Randle
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Texans -4
- Projected Total: 48
Both teams are off to a bit of a disappointing start.
The Falcons in particular are reeling. Their offensive line issues are likely to be a problem all season and they recently lost Neal.
This sets up as a Texans bounce back spot and I expect Hopkins to erupt for a big game. Unfortunately, this market is very much in line with what I’m projecting, which means I’ll pass here. — Sean Koerner
Expert Pick
Randle: Over 49
Atlanta’s lack of ability to generate quarterback pressure will be a welcome relief to a Houston offensive line that has allowed the third-most quarterback sacks and second-most quarterback hits this season. If we incorporate data from the FantasyLabs trends tool, when Watson has played at home in a game with a total of 44 or more points, he has exceeded his projected total 81.8% of the time.
The Falcons' 21st-ranked pass defense will struggle to contain Hopkins, Fuller and Keke Coutee.
Matt Ryan, meanwhile, has continued to post quality fantasy numbers despite poor efficiency. He ranks first in pass attempts, second in passing yards and inside the top 10 in fantasy points per game. He's thrown for 300 or more yards in every game this season, although most in comeback mode. The Texans' secondary has yielded huge performances to top wideouts this season, including Keenan Allen (13-183-2) and Michael Thomas (10-123-0).
The Falcons have generated passing production in every game this season and will need to score points with Houston attacking their weak pass defense.
This shootout has potential to be the highest scoring game in Week 5.
