Each week of the NFL season I will highlight risers and fallers in dynasty leagues — one player to trade for, one to trade away, one to add and one to drop.
Dynasty Risers
Trade for: Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks
After weeks of barely seeing the field, the Seahawks have finally started to make use of their surprising first-round pick, running back Rashaad Penny. Before being selected by the Seahawks on day 1, Penny was viewed as a late first-rounder in dynasty rookie drafts, but the increased draft capital quickly upped Penny’s value and the expectations placed upon him. In training camp, Penny never really threatened to win the job or overtake second-year running back Chris Carson, although essentially every dynasty player views that as an inevitable outcome.
Penny’s breakout game came in Week 10 when he rushed for 108 yards and his first career touchdown. By the next game, Carson was back from his injury and Seattle installed a three-man backfield committee.
This is actually an ideal situation for dynasty players who might still be able to buy Penny at a discount to his offseason price. Penny is still considered the heavy favorite to be the long-term starter for Seattle. His trade cost has probably climbed back into the range of a late first-round rookie pick, but I would try to acquire him for a pair of seconds.
Add: Gus Edwards, RB, Baltimore Ravens
This one is a slam dunk this week. It is usually not easy to identify serious waiver wire targets at this late point in the fantasy season, but we’ve been gifted an undrafted rookie running back who might just claim the starting role in Baltimore. Rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson stole the show last Sunday, but former Rutgers back Gus Edwards displaced starter Alex Collins and saw nearly all of the work in the game’s second half. He finished with 115 rushing yards on 17 carries, the first 100-yard rushing game by a Ravens running back all season.
I might be willing to chalk this up to random game flow, but it has been widely reported that the Ravens have been trying to find alternatives to Collins all season. Earlier in the year, they gave running back Buck Allen an increased workload and traded for running back Ty Montgomery. Those moves didn’t work, but Edwards might be the answer. Whatever FAAB money you have left, throw it all into the middle of the table in an effort to land Edwards.
Dynasty Fallers
Trade away: Adrian Peterson, RB, Washington Redskins
Veteran running back Adrian Peterson is one of the most surprising players of the year. After being left for dead on the NFL streets, the Redskins took a chance when they lost rookie running back Derrius Guice for the season with a torn ACL.
For the season, Peterson is the RB13 and is on pace for over 1,400 yards from scrimmage. It’s not all good news though. There may not be a more game script-dependent player this season than Peterson. In Washington's six wins, Peterson has finished on average as the RB17. In the team’s four losses, though, that number drops all the way to RB34.
Now, if you’re contending and you grabbed Peterson from the waiver wire early in the season and he’s currently your last starter, ride the wave. If that’s not the case, take advantage of his surprising fantasy seasonal rank and take anything you can get in a trade. The easiest and most ideal swap would simply net the Peterson seller a future second-round rookie pick.
Drop: Alex Smith, QB, Washington Redskins
One more reason to dump Peterson now is the injury to veteran quarterback Alex Smith. Unfortunately, Smith saw his season come to an end last Sunday when he suffered a broken tibia and fibula, which required immediate surgery. The good news is that Smith is expected to make a full recovery and should be able to play sometime in the 2019 season, perhaps even Week 1.
The bad news is Smith is already 34 years old and will turn 35 before next season. He’s also been very disappointing from a fantasy perspective this year, finishing as a QB1 (top 12) just one time, back in Week 1. Smith has shown us that his QB4 overall season in 2017 was more about wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce than Smith himself.
In most leagues, Smith deserved to be on the waiver wire prior to the injury, and maybe he already is. If not, it is time to say farewell.
