Welcome to my weekly Fantasy Sims series, where I'll detail every player’s odds of posting a top fantasy finish at his position, along with the over/under for where I think each player will be ranked at his position by week's end.
The concept is simple: I simulated each week's games 10,000 times to calculate odds for every fantasy-relevant player. This includes their chances of finishing as a QB1, RB1, WR1, etc — so within the top 12 of their position in 12-team leagues, for example.
You might be asking yourself, "Great, what can I do with this? Will it help me decide who to start at TE this week?" Well, yes and no.
What I want to make clear is that these results are based on my projections as of a few hours before the Thursday Night Football game. My projections will change a bit between now and Sunday as there are two more days worth of data, film, news, etc. that could inform updates, so they’re the most accurate they can be come Sunday morning.
For season-long sit/start decisions, you should absolutely still consult my updated rankings on Sunday morning. And for daily fantasy, you can check out my updated projections on FantasyLabs that drive those models.
There is a constant stream of cool and interesting information that can make you a better fantasy football player. But I understand how that can be overwhelming when you have jobs, kids and a life outside of fantasy football, so I always aim to create rankings and projections that allow you can quickly reference when making a final sit/start decisions.
The goal of these odds is to help you think like a fantasy football expert, and one of the best ways to do that is to understand week-to-week variance and how it should impact your expectations.
Fantasy Quarterback Simulations, Week 10
Here's every QB and his odds to finish as the top-1, top-2, top-3, etc player at his position this week.This chart is best viewed on a computer. Feel free to download the full doc if you want to parse it further.
Here are my positional rank over/unders for every QB. This represents what I'd set the line at if I was accepting bets on where each player will finish the week ranked.
Fantasy Running Back Simulations, Week 10
Here's every RB and his odds to finish as the top-1, top-2, top-3, etc player at his position this week. This chart is best viewed on a computer. Feel free to download the full doc if you want to parse it further.
Here are my positional rank over/unders for the top-30 RBs. This represents what I'd set the line at if I was accepting bets on where each player will finish the week ranked.
Fantasy Wide Receiver Simulations, Week 10
Here's every WR and his odds to finish as the top-1, top-2, top-3, etc player at his position this week. This chart is best viewed on a computer. Feel free to download the full doc if you want to parse it further.
Here are my positional rank over/unders for the top-30 WRs. This represents what I'd set the line at if I was accepting bets on where each player will finish the week ranked.
Fantasy Tight End Simulations, Week 10
Here's every QB and his odds to finish as the top-1, top-2, top-3, etc player at his position this week. This chart is best viewed on a computer. Feel free to download the full doc if you want to parse it further.
Here are my positional rank over/unders for the top-15 TEs. This represents what I'd set the line at if I was accepting bets on where each player will finish the week ranked.
