After 20 seasons with the Patriots, six Super Bowl rings, four Super Bowl MVPs and three league MVP awards, Brady will go down as the greatest to ever play the game.
It makes his decision to play for Tampa Bay all the more difficult for our brains to process. But my initial projections position him as a winner from the move.
Brady will have two of the NFL's top wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, so I'm raising his projected passing yards per game to 276.5 and his touchdown rate up to 4.8% — that's good for 4,313 yards and 28.8 passing TDs.
One reason the Bucs have led the league in passing yards the past two seasons has been their turnover-prone quarterbacks — Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick — as well as their poor defensive play. But now with a turnover averse QB in Brady and their defense likely to take a step forward, I'm expecting them to throw a bit less.
The decline in passing volume is likely to benefit Ronald Jones, who has been hampered by the Bucs' extreme passing volume over his first two seasons. He took a big step forward last year, especially in the passing game, so I can see him being a potential fantasy RB2 with Brady under center.
Godwin is likely to be Brady's top target — Godwin has much more likely to fit into the Julian Edelman role that Brady can lean on over the middle of the field.
Evans, though, could be negatively impacted by Brady given Evans is the team's main vertical threat: Winston attempted a deep pass on 15.8% of his attempts, which ranked fourth among qualified QBs. Brady’s 10.1% rate happened to be fourth-lowest. Brady will also be less likely to make aggressive, downfield throws that are turnover prone.
We can assume that the Bucs will alter Evans' route tree in a way that prevents his production from falling off a cliff, but I'll update my projections diligently over the offseason.
O.J. Howard could be a potential winner from Brady's decision.
He was one of the biggest "busts" at tight end last season, which was partly due to most of us overlooking Bruce Arians' poor history with TEs. But Brady’s history of heavily targeting TEs in the red zone could give Howard an eight- to 10-touchdown ceiling this season.
Howard will likely be a high upside late-round flier in 2020 drafts.
My Projections
- Tom Brady: 4,313 passing yards; 28.8 passing touchdowns; QB10
- Chris Godwin: 78 receptions; 1,069 rec yards; 7.8 rec TDs; WR7
- Mike Evans: 75 receptions; 1,140 rec yards; 6.8 rec TDs; WR8
- O.J. Howard: 42 receptions; 546 rec yards; 4.8 rec TDs; TE15
- Julian Edelman: 75 receptions; 870 rec yards; 5.6 rec TDs; WR28
