In this article, I compare players with similar ESPN fantasy projections based on our Action Network Consensus Rankings and projections. In doing so, I advocate starting players with higher upside and fading comparable players with downside risk.
Since moving to this new format in Week 9, we've gone 24-10 (71% win-rate) on our recommendations. Readers who have heeded our recommendations have earned a +149.5 PPR points Plus/Minus score over that span — that's an extra 21.4 fantasy points per week.
All rankings and projections are based on PPR scoring. Reported player projections are based on median expected outcome and are current as of writing. For a complete breakdown of all players, check out our FantasyLabs Models powered by "The Oddsmaker," Sean Koerner.
Quarterback: Start Nick Foles over Mitchell Trubisky
Foles exploded for 471 yards, four touchdowns and 30.9 fantasy points in a must-win game against the Texans last week. Now he faces a slumping Redskins team that has no path to the playoffs and has lost five of its past six games.
The Eagles have to win — and have the Vikings lose to the Bears — to punch their playoff ticket as an NFC wild card. With the season on the line, Philadelphia will look to Foles to conjure some of that playoff magic that led to last season's title.
Washington's defense is pretty average across most advanced metrics and has played up or down to the level of its competition. Quarterbacks on teams in the top-half of the league in Football Outsiders' offense pass DVOA have averaged 287.8 passing yards, two touchdowns and 17.9 fantasy points per game against Washington. Quarterbacks on teams in the bottom-half of the league have averaged 209.7 passing yards, one touchdown and 15.3 fantasy points against the Redskins.
If you exclude games against inept quarterbacks — Week 1 vs. Sam Bradford, Week 15 vs. Cody Kessler and Week 16 vs. Marcus Mariota and Blaine Gabbert — the Redskins have allowed 19.3 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Foles and the Eagles' 13th-ranked pass offense DVOA are in prime position to gash the Washington defense, making Foles a solid fantasy QB1 for Week 17.
Trubisky is in a precarious position as head coach Matt Nagy could choose to rest players, especially if the Rams get out to a big lead over the 49ers. The Bears can fall to no lower than the NFC's No. 3 seed, creating little incentive to play to win (although Nagy did say they "aren't going to hold back" against the Vikings). The Bears do have a path to the No. 2 seed, but that would require the Rams to lose.
Even if Trubisky and the Bears offense plays in full, their matchup against the Vikings is still suboptimal. The Vikings rank fourth in pass defense DVOA and allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game (14.6) to opposing quarterbacks. When these two teams faced off in Week 11, Trubisky posted a below-average 165-1-2 passing line — but added 43 rushing yards — on his way to 14.9 fantasy points.
Trubisky has also faded in his past three starts, averaging only 11.9 fantasy points per game. He ranks 23rd among fantasy quarterbacks over that span.
Given the difficulty of his matchup and the downside risk of a premature exit, it's best to let Trubisky ride the bench in Week 17.
Running Back: Start Damien Williams over Spencer Ware
Ware (hamstring) is probable to return this week, which reintroduces an element of ambiguity in the Chiefs backfield. In two games as a starter before injuring his hamstring, Ware averaged 15.1 PPR points per game, ranking 13th among running backs over that short span.
That's pretty solid production for a guy who was on waivers a few weeks ago.
However, Williams took over in Week 15 with Ware sidelined and substantially outperformed him. Over the past two weeks, Williams has averaged 131.5 total yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. He ranks fifth among running backs over that span with 24.7 PPR points per game.
So, the question is: Who should you start? My money is on Williams.
The biggest point of separation between these two running backs is receiving upside. Williams has been a third-down specialist throughout his career with the Dolphins, and Andy Reid has employed Williams to full effect in the Chiefs' passing game. In two games as a starter, Williams has averaged 6.5 receptions and 55.5 receiving yards per game.
Ware is no slouch as a receiver, of course, but it's important to remember that he entered the league as a fullback for the Seahawks. If Reid employs a 50/50 split against the Raiders, it's likely that Williams will see the majority of the receiving workload. That gives Williams a definitive edge over Ware in PPR.
Williams has also performed so impressively these last two weeks that it could be more of a 60/40 or 70/30 split in his favor. The upside in this matchup is with Williams, regardless of his workload. To contrast, Ware's ceiling is likely limited due to his offensive role, and he also carries downside risk if he doesn't earn at least 50% of the snaps.
Wide Receiver: Start Doug Baldwin over Jarvis Landry
This is one of the few occasions — like Robby Anderson last week — when a player is simply too hot to fade. The Cardinals are no pushover on defense, but Baldwin's upside makes him a must-start wide receiver.
Health issues have plagued him all season, but he has finally returned to fantasy WR1 status over his past five games. Since Week 11, he's averaged 7.8 targets, five receptions, 63.2 yards and a touchdown per game. That translates to 17.3 PPR fantasy points per contest, which ranks 11th among wide receivers over that span.
His last two games against the 49ers and Chiefs have been even more impressive. Across those two games, he's averaging a 5.5-101.5-1.5 receiving line on nine targets per game. He ranks fourth among wide receivers with 24.7 PPR points per game.
Since Week 11, he leads Seattle in target share (27%), air yards market share (34%), receptions (24) and air yards (465). Baldwin has eclipsed Tyler Lockett as the Seahawk's No. 1 wide receiver and No. 1 red-zone target over that span.
Bank on Baldwin in Seattle's season finale.
Meanwhile, Landry has experienced a massive decline in production since Freddie Kitchens took over as the Browns' offensive coordinator. Kitchens has employed more spread concepts, which demands more quarterback reads based on scheme, matchup and spacing.
As a result, the Browns' passing game has distributed the ball to more receivers, with increased variability in usage for any one player. This has negatively impacted Landry's role and dramatically decreased his per-game averages:
On top of that, he must contend with the Ravens' stingy secondary, which allows the fewest PPR fantasy points per game (15.9) to wide receivers. Baltimore ranks third in pass defense DVOA and completely shut down Jameis Winston and Philip Rivers over the past two weeks.
Landry is still a reasonable upside play given his dynamic play-making ability, but he's not a reliable fantasy starter this week.
Tight End: Start Evan Engram over Kyle Rudolph
Engram posed yet another top-five fantasy week against the Colts, snaring six passes for 87 yards on six targets. He's now totaled at least 75 receiving yards in three consecutive games and ranks fourth among tight ends in PPR points per game (14.5) over that stretch.
Of course, most of that production has come with Odell Beckham Jr. sidelined, but he also remains a prime candidate to rest in Week 17 to avoid re-aggravating his quad injury.
Without Beckham in the lineup, Engram has earned a 22% target share, which leads the team and ranks tied for third among all tight ends. He also ranks fourth among tight ends in targets (23), tied for third in receptions (23) and second in receiving yards (239) over that span.
The Cowboys are expected to rest players in preparation for the playoffs, despite public claims to the contrary by Ezekiel Elliott and Jerry Jones. If Dallas does rest key players, that could further enhance Engram's upside this week.
Rudolph caught nine passes for a season-high 122 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions last week. But 44 of those yards and one of those touchdowns came on an end-of-half Hail Mary, which is obviously pretty fluky.
You might be tempted to point-chase after Rudolph's eruption last week, but it would be wise to proceed with caution. Prior to Week 16, Rudolph totaled a whopping zero touchdowns since Week 3.
From Weeks 6 to 15, he averaged just 3.1 receptions and 29.3 yards per game. His six fantasy points per game average over that span ranked 22nd among tight ends. He also ranked 20th among tight ends in target share (13%), 19th in air yards (281), 14th in targets (40) and 19th in receiving yards (264).
He also draws a stiff matchup against the Bears, who rank first in pass defense DVOA — and who rank third in pass defense DVOA against tight ends specifically.
My point is this: Rudolph has not been a starting-caliber tight end this season. Don't be a victim of the moment during the most important week of the fantasy season, especially given the difficulty of Rudolph's matchup. He's better off on your bench — or better yet, on the waiver wire.
