Collaborating with Action Network this spring, you’ll find the final version of Nick Guarisco’s 2023 NFL Mock Draft below.
Guarisco (@FantasyLawGuy on Twitter) ranked in the top six in mock draft accuracy from 2019-21 at NFL Mock Draft Database, which grades the accuracy of mock drafts across the industry and includes analysts like ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.
Check out Guarisco's final selections for all 31 NFL teams (sorry, Dolphins!) below.
2023 NFL Mock Draft
Click on a team for further analysis of Nick Guarisco's NFL Mock Draft.
* means a trade involving these picks has been reported but is not official.
| No. | Team | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers | Bryce Young, QB, Alabama |
| 2 | Texans | Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama |
| 3 | Cardinals | Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State |
| 4 | Colts | Will Levis, QB, Kentucky |
| 5 | Seahawks | Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida |
| 6 | Lions | Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois |
| 7 | Raiders | Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech |
| 8 | Falcons | Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas |
| 9 | Bears | Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern |
| 10 | Eagles | Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia |
| 11 | Titans | CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State |
| 12 | Texans | Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon |
| 13 | Packers* | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State |
| 14 | Patriots | Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College |
| 15 | Jets* | Nolan Smith, DE, Georgia |
| 16 | Commanders | Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee |
| 17 | Steelers | Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia |
| 18 | Lions | Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa |
| 19 | Buccaneers | Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma |
| 20 | Seahawks | Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson |
| 21 | Chargers | Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah |
| 22 | Ravens | Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland |
| 23 | Vikings | Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State |
| 24 | Jaguars | Brian Branch, S, Alabama |
| 25 | Giants | Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU |
| 26 | Cowboys | Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame |
| 27 | Bills | Jordan Addison, WR, USC |
| 28 | Bengals | Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State |
| 29 | Saints | Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson |
| 30 | Eagles | Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama |
| 31 | Chiefs | Will McDonald, DE, Iowa State |
| *The Dolphins forfeited their first-round pick. | ||
2023 NFL Draft Predictions
1. Carolina Panthers (from Chicago): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
There are reasons to believe Carolina’s interest in Young is a masterfully crafted smokescreen designed to entice the Texans to trade up, but at this point, I’m putting the chances of that at between 5-10%. Young remains the betting favorite to be the No. 1 pick.
2. Houston Texans: Will Anderson, DE, Alabama
Houston wants to trade down and has made this pick “for sale,” which may be indicative of the team’s willingness to pass on a quarterback here.
If Houston can’t trade down, the pick here will likely be the best player available (DEs Anderson or Tyree Wilson) vs. whoever is their QB2 behind Young.
At this point, intel indicates Will Levis is likely Houston’s QB2. As of this writing, I would rank the likelihood of Houston’s pick as follows: Anderson > Levis > Stroud > Wilson.
Regardless, what the Texans will do here remains a mystery. New defensive-minded head coach DeMeco Ryans gets a player to build his defense around. Ryans and general manager Nick Caserio have Alabama connections (re: Anderson Jr.). Wilson is a local product who would have time to develop before Houston is ready to seriously contend, but I believe he has medical concerns, so the Texans should pass on him.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
The Cardinals probably want to trade down with a QB-needy team and target CB Christian Gonzalez or OL Paris Johnson Jr. Many are pointing to DEs Tyree Wilson or Will Anderson Jr. here if the team cannot successfully move down.
However, I’m not completely ruling out either Gonzalez or Johnson Jr. at No. 3. In any case, I do believe that Arizona pulling off a deal is more likely than not. Again, OT, CB, and DE are the most pressing needs on a team that has many. The Cardinals O-Line made 44 of 85 possible starts last season (32nd) and there are several expiring contracts. Moreover, QB Kyler Murray has vouched for Johnson On the other hand, the team’s depth chart at DE and CB is devoid of talent.
Gonzalez is another nice trade down and take option.
4. Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Other Possibilities: QB Anthony Richardson, QB C.J. Stroud
Levis' Projected Range: 2-4
Levis' Likely Landing Spots: Texans, Colts
All indications are that the Colts are taking the highest-graded quarterback who is available for this pick (and not moving up). I’m buying the narrative that Levis is the team’s preferred option, but I consider it a toss-up whether this will be Richardson or Stroud if Levis is taken beforehand.
I find some validity to the narrative that new head coach Shane Steichen would feel more comfortable taking a risk on developing an athletic talent than other coaches, based on his history with Jalen Hurts and others.
I see the Colts' QB hierarchy as Levis, Richardson then Stroud.
5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver): Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Other Possibilities: DE Tyree Wilson, DT Jalen Carter, CB Devon Witherspoon, QB Anthony Richardson
Anderson's Projected Range: 2-8
Anderson's Likely Landing Spots: Texans, Cardinals, Seahawks, Raiders
Seattle is highly likely targeting a defender here, and expectations should be centered around the defensive line. I believe the Seahawks are hoping Anderson falls. If not, that could be the circumstance to consider DT Jalen Carter. Seattle likes CB Devon Witherspoon a lot too.
Additionally, I can see Seattle being in on QB Anthony Richardson but more so for their second selection in the first round (No. 20), perhaps even if Richardson slides into the teens.
6. Detroit Lions (from L.A. Rams): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Other Possibilities: DE Will Anderson Jr., DE Tyree Wilson, DT Jalen Carter, QB Anthony Richardson
Witherspoon's Projected Range: 6-7
Witherspoon's Likely Landing Spots: Lions, Raiders
Witherspoon is getting a lot of buzz here, and for good reason, even aside from cornerback being a huge need for Detroit beyond 2024. Witherspoon has the passion for football that this regime covets and primarily plays in man coverage, which the Lions use at a high rate.
I’m not ruling out DT Jalen Carter or quarterback here, but Carter would be a departure from the high character, football-obsessed, culture-centered philosophy this regime has prioritized, while quarterback would be a departure from their pre-draft interest and public comments regarding Jared Goff.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech
The Raiders have spent a lot of time with this year’s quarterback class, but in this case, the team prioritizes its draft picks and doesn’t trade up. I would bet that Will Levis is the QB2 on Vegas’ board anyway (behind Bryce Young).
With Vegas, I’m paying close attention to players who are cultural fits and players New England would love, seeing as many decision makers in the front office once worked with the Patriots. Accordingly, I’m honing in on QB Will Levis, CB Devon Witherspoon and OG Peter Skoronski.
The Raiders are picking right in the sweet spot for one of the two great cornerback prospects in this draft class.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Obviously, upgrading the pass rush is a primary objective. The Falcons have done a lot of homework on cornerbacks throughout the draft process. I do not think the Jeffery Okudah trade precludes the Falcons from taking a corner like Christian Gonzalez here.
A star running back like RB Bijan Robinson may also entice head coach Arthur Smith. DE Nolan Smith plays a position of need, possesses great character and has local ties. Perhaps the team clears Tyree Wilson’s medicals and ends a slide.
9. Chicago Bears (from Carolina): Peter Skoronski, OG, Northwestern
Chicago is looking hard at solidifying the offensive line by adding a plug-and-play right tackle. Valid arguments can be made for Chicago taking any of the top four offensive-line prospects. Consequently, I’ve seen all four mocked to Chicago throughout the process.
My top two would be Paris Johnson Jr. and Peter Skoronski, but I’ve heard rumblings about Darnell Wright. The Bears would likely be ecstatic if DT Jalen Carter fell here. Carter fills a major hole in the middle of the defense and was in consideration at Pick 1 when the Bears possessed it.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
The Eagles should be expected to fortify the trenches here. Defensive tackle is the biggest need within, and this team is well-equipped to mentor and coach up Carter, who will be red-flagged by some teams due to character concerns.
I’m admittedly nervous going against the chalk of Carter at No. 5 and it may be prudent for Philadelphia to jump Chicago to secure Carter.
11. Tennessee Titans: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Tennessee should take the opportunity to draft its quarterback of the future. I think it appears somewhat likely that either C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson falls. Connections also exist between head coach Mike Vrabel and Ohio State (re: Stroud and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba).
If not quarterback, the Titans should be expected to strengthen their offensive line. Look for OG Peter Skoronski.
12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
I have a hard time believing the Texans won’t come away with a pass rusher and a quarterback in their two top 12 selections. The Texans have also been linked by several draft sources to QB Hendon Hooker.
I believe Houston will try to move up to take Will Levis. DE Tyree Wilson was once in consideration with Pick 2, and maybe he still is, but in the 11th hour, I’ve heard there are medical red flags and that Wilson may drop lower than expected.
13. Green Bay Packers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Other Possibilities: CB Christian Gonzalez, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DE Lukas Van Ness, DE Myles Murphy, OT Broderick Jones, OT Darnell Wright
Smith-Njigba's Projected Range: 7-14
Smith-Njigba's Likely Landing Spots: Packers, Patriots, Seahawks (No. 20)
Historically, Green Bay prioritizes athleticism and adheres to measurable thresholds. Several players in this class fit the criteria.
While the cupboard is barren at tight end, it’s quite possible that the Packers address the position later in the draft, given the talent of the players available and the fact that this is seen as a historically deep tight end class.
JSN would complement WR Christian Watson perfectly while giving new QB Jordan Love the best chance to succeed.
Defensive line would be my next guess, considering DE Rashan Gary’s ACL injury. Lukas Van Ness and Myles Murphy fit the Green Bay prototype.
14. New England Patriots: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
If the Patriots want to compete with Mac Jones at quarterback, then the team’s primary needs consist of offensive tackle, wide receiver and cornerback.
As for corner, I see this as both Devon Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez’s floor. Along the O-Line, I believe the team would be pleased with either Peter Skoronski and Broderick Jones.
On the other hand, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba makes a ton of sense here too. Zay Flowers is a dark horse if Smith-Njigba is snatched beforehand.
15. New York Jets: Nolan Smith, DE, Georgia
The Jets hope to land a premier offensive tackle prospect here in order to bolster the unit for Aaron Rodgers. Accordingly, I believe New York would be thrilled if either Peter Skoronski or Broderick Jones were available.
While Jones is the superior athlete, which general manager Joe Douglas has gravitated toward, Skoronski is the team captain, an accomplishment Douglas also prioritizes. Daniel Jeremiah has linked DE Nolan Smith to the Jets in prior mocks.
16. Washington Commanders: Darnell Wright, OL, Tennessee
Washington may feel more inclined to draft an offensive player here. given the defense’s comparative success. Further, the Commanders will want to help their quarterback by providing either extra protection or playmakers for new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy.
If the board does not fall favorably, this is a nice spot to grab a cornerback. If teams do not have any character concerns about Wright, he could go as high as ninth overall. He could also fall into the 20s.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The Steelers have been heavily focused on cornerbacks and offensive tackles throughout the draft process and I would bet on them coming away with both after their first two selections. The Steelers also have No. 32.
Protecting Kenny Pickett is paramount, but the top options being taken may lend the hand to cornerback. I could also see CB Deonte Banks or Joey Porter Jr. going here.
18. Detroit Lions: Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa
If Detroit takes CB Devon Witherspoon with No. 6, it’ll look elsewhere here (otherwise I think this pick will be CB Deonte Banks). In this case, odds are Detroit will focus on the interior offensive and defensive lines.
From what I understand, the Lions are high on DT Lukas Van Ness, Calijah Kancey and OG O’Cyrus Torrence.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
Tampa Bay would prefer any of the top three offensive line prospects (Johnson, Skoronski or Jones) to slide to this pick, but that seems unlikely given the demand. It’s unclear if Tampa Bay views Darnell Wright as solely a right tackle, but the team desperately needs a left tackle. This could force Tampa Bay to either reach for the next OT or pivot to a BPA (best player available) approach.
20. Seattle Seahawks: Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
A slot receiver would pair perfectly with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the outside, and Seattle hasn’t signed anyone to replace the departed Marquise Goodwin. Zay Flowers mostly played as an outside receiver, but has the skillset to play inside in the NFL. If the Seahawks somehow do not take a defensive lineman at No. 5, I believe they’d absolutely take one here, possibly Myles Murphy.
Seattle is a dark horse to attack a falling QB such as Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud, or Hendon Hooker.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Other Possibilities: RB Bijan Robinson, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR Zay Flowers, DE Myles Murphy, TE Michael Mayer
Kincaid's Projected Range: 16-Round 2
Kincaid's Likely Landing Spots: Commanders, Chargers, Cowboys, Bengals
There are connections between WR Jordan Addison and the Chargers coaching staff worth considering. Moreover, the Chargers should be wanting to add speed to this offense after several injuries to pass catchers last season.
TE Gerald Everett is entering the final year of his contract, making a playmaker like Kincaid a strong option.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Baltimore should be targeting cornerbacks and wide receivers, in that order. The additions of Odell Beckham Jr. and (to a lesser extent) Nelson Agholor, along with the presumed recovery of Rashod Bateman, may move the needle toward corner, a position Baltimore has prioritized heavily over the years. The team could also land DeAndre Hopkins.
Accordingly, I have a tough time not mocking one of three corners here: Deonte Banks, Emmanuel Forbes or Joey Porter Jr.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Cornerback and wide receiver are most major concerns, with cornerback possibly a better bet here due to the addition of defensive coordinator Brian Flores. In this circumstance, however, five cornerbacks have already been selected, swinging the pendulum toward receiver.
Be on the lookout for the Vikings to pounce if QB Anthony Richardson is available in the teens.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
The Jaguars don’t have nearly the amount of pressing needs as they have had in year’s past. Still, the offensive and defensive lines could be upgraded, and the players listed below are players I’ve heard Jacksonville views favorably.
Branch could start at safety immediately and give the team versatility in the secondary. DE Myles Murphy has been training in Jacksonville.
25. New York Giants: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Most mockers will place a wide receiver here, but the secondary is a more dire concern, especially when considering contract situations beyond this season. Accordingly, I’m looking for New York to be high on Emmanuel Forbes, Joey Porter Jr. and Brian Branch.
I also believe New York is high on WRs Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison. WR Quentin Johnston can provide some size that the WR depth chart otherwise lacks.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
The Cowboys already have a great defense, per head coach Mike McCarthy, so I’m expecting this pick to be on the offensive side of the ball.
Dallas has brought in a lot of wide receivers for private visits and likely wasn’t pleased that it had to rely on T.Y. Hilton down the stretch last season. An elite running back or tight end could provide the offense with extra playmakers after losing Dalton Schultz and Ezekiel Elliott.
27. Buffalo Bills: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
The top four defensive tackles on the Bills roster all have expiring contracts, which makes the future at the position extremely uncertain. LB Jack Campbell has been working out with Luke Kuechly, who is part of the Bills’ staff. Consequently, I really wanted to mock Campbell here.
Wide receiver is also a spot Buffalo wants to upgrade, but the Bills may do that by trading for DeAndre Hopkins.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
There exists a glaring hole at tight end despite the one-year deal given to Irv Smith. The team has to like outstanding elite tight end prospects Michael Mayer and Dalton Kincaid.
If the Bengals bypass tight end, DT Calijah Kancey and CB Emmanuel Forbes are two players I expect to catch Cincinnati’s eye. RT Darnell Wright, who may slide due to some character concerns, could land here too.
29. New Orleans Saints (from San Francisco via Miami and Denver): Bryan Bresee (DT – Clemson)
The Saints have a history of drafting bigger, longer defensive linemen, while prioritizing athleticism. The Saints can do that here by taking either DT Bryan Bresee or DE Keion White. Though undersized, DT Calijah Kancey and DE Will McDonald will be intriguing quickness and speed options.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
This would be a nice place to draft a defensive lineman if the Eagles don’t take one at 10. Gibbs would be a perfect complement to the newly signed Rashaad Penny.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Will McDonald, DE, Iowa State
The Super Bowl champions should be prioritizing offensive tackle, wide receiver and the defensive line. DEs Will McDonald and Keion White will be appetizing. I’m also confident the Chiefs would select WR Zay Flowers if he falls to this pick.
