The bye weeks are over, December football is here, and we're hitting the home stretch with a flourish, kicking it off with a full Saturday slate of NFL action.
Every single game on the slate has at least some playoff implications. That means paying extra attention to motivation plus late-season injury and weather reports, so let's dig in and get to work.
We've already made decisions on the full Saturday slate and nearly every other game, so be sure to check the full explanations there. Note that we're upgrading Ravens +3 to a Bet now that Tyler Huntley has been cleared and downgrading Colts +3.5 to a Pass with the line move.
Let's recap the other Bet, Lean, and Pass picks for NFL Week 15 now that the lines have shifted and then get to our final four decisions.
Bet
- Ravens +3 at Browns
- Steelers +3 at Panthers
- Giants/Commanders Under 40.5 (Lean Giants +5)
- Packers -6.5 vs Rams
Lean
- Bills -7 vs Dolphins
- Cowboys -4 at Jaguars
- Texans +14.5 vs Chiefs
- Falcons +4 at Saints (Under 43.5, Falcons +1600 to win NFC South)
Pass
- Colts +3.5 at Vikings
- Bears +9 vs Eagles (Under 48.5)
- Patriots +1.5 at Raiders
Week 16 Lookahead Picks
- Lions (-2.5) at Panthers
- Packers (+4.5) at Bills
Note: Odds are the best available for each pick as of writing. Shop for the best real-time lines with our NFL odds page.
I was so excited for this potential game of the week between two of the NFL's most woebegone franchises both on the cusp of a memorable Cinderella playoff run, but injuries may have spoiled this matchup.
The Jets might be without their most important player on both sides of the ball. Mike White is officially out, which means the return of Zach Wilson, and that is a huge downgrade. Defensive star Quinnen Williams is also questionable with a calf, and the Jets defense has been elite with Williams and pretty poor in limited snaps without him.
It's hard to get behind the Jets without White and Williams. I like how New York matches up defensively, and Jared Goff hasn't been great in outdoor weather, but Detroit is rolling. The offense scores nearly 30 PPG in healthy Amon-Ra St. Brown games with a top-five DVOA, and the defense ranks among the top eight against both the run and the pass by DVOA over the last six weeks.
That's just a much better balance, enough to offset a lesser game from Goff, compared to a Jets team whose offense rates above average without Wilson at quarterback but only 22nd with him. I don't love the Lions on the road with Goff facing a great defense in a playoff setting, but I don't love the Jets without White and Williams even more.
With this line right around a pick'em, if you feel like you have a good read in either direction, your best bet might be playing the team you like to make the playoffs. Whoever wins this one will be in great shape going forward.
The Pick: Lean Lions +1 | Previously: Wait for Jets injury news and for the line to settle
Pick: Lions +1 |
Something about this line has smelled fishy all week. I just can't get past that stinky hook for some reason as the line has sat right past a field goal all week without budging.
The Bengals have been so, so much better than the Bucs for virtually the entire season, so much that it feels like the books are setting us up, begging us to back Cincinnati. The Bengals offense is rolling, and the defense might be as good as Tampa's now too.
Neither defense is healthy. The Bengals are missing two of their top three corners and star pass rusher Trey Hendrickson, so perhaps Tom Brady will find some success. But Tampa is missing a handful of important defenders again, potentially along with right tackle Tristan Wirfs (questionable), and Cincy is set up better to take advantage.
Antoine Winfield Jr. is a key name to watch on Sunday because he's so important to this Tampa defense. The Bucs have been downright bad defending the pass lately, mostly without Winfield. But if he ends up playing, which looks like the direction he's trending, and if Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd (both questionable) are out, that could neuter Cincinnati's biggest advantage.
The Bengals just seem so much better, and Cincinnati has covered 10 of its last 11 games while the Bucs have covered just one of their last 11. But the health muddies things for both sides, and sometimes those season-long trends end up regressing to the mean right as we try to bet them.
Tom Brady legacy trends have been less reliable this season, but I can't shake this one: after a loss by 14 or more, Brady is 22-4 ATS (85%), covering by 9.8 PPG. Does Old Man GOAT have one more bounce-back game in him?
I still can't play this too strongly with the injury uncertainty, but I'm trusting my gut and going with the Bucs to even out the wild ATS disparity with that stinky, stanky line stuck above the key number.
The Pick: Bucs +3.5 (Pass) | Previously: Wait for the injury reports
Pick: Bucs +3.5 |
We waited for the long injury report for both sides, and man… it's ugly. Both defenses are in shambles.
The Titans will be short as many as seven presumed starters. Both top corners are out along with the entire starting linebacker crew, and Jeffery Simmons continues to be limited. The Titans have lost three in a row and allowed an ugly 30.3 PPG along the way after allowing more than 22 once all season before that. Tennessee's run defense is terrific but acts as a pass funnel, and that plays right into the Chargers' strengths. Justin Herbert could have a monster game.
But the Chargers defense is in sorry shape too. The injury list isn't quite as long, but the names are bigger: Joey Bosa, Derwin James, J.C. Jackson, plus most of the defensive line. The Chargers can't stop the run, almost by design. Derrick Henry could rumble for 200 yards if he gets going.
The Chargers are still 1-4 against teams in the top half of either conference. They have only seven wins all year: six by one score, four failing to cover this number. I'm riding with that ever-present Chargers uncertainty and the big coaching mismatch in Tennessee's favor. Mike Vrabel is 21-8 ATS (72%) as an underdog of three or more, winning eight of the last 12 outright.
The Titans have been excellent early in the game and on early downs, with the Chargers just the opposite, so the script sets up the Titans to play their game. Of course, that was the case last week too, and Tennessee got a great start and still got lambasted. Herbert could get to this defense as the game goes on. The more the Titans play their style, the more the Chargers will be forced to pass on a very beatable secondary.
This feels like a coin flip that will come down to a few key bounces. The Chargers are more than capable of blowing a game they should win, or winning by a point or two and blowing this cover. The Titans have covered this line all but four games. I'll take the points, but I wanted to talk myself into a Bet and can't quite get there with all the injury uncertainty.
The Pick: Lean Titans +3 | Previously: Wait for the long injury report for both sides
Pick: Titans +3 |
This game is a meaningless scrimmage between a pair of MAS*H units with nothing left to play for. What should've been an exciting showdown between Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson instead gives us Colt McCoy and Brett Rypien going head-to-head for a pair of lame duck coaches who should've been fired months ago in Kliff Kingsbury and Nathaniel Hackett. Fired up yet?!
Both defenses are missing key bodies, but both offenses are absolutely decimated, especially on the line and obviously at quarterback. If you need action, play the under 36.5. Kingsbury road unders are 20-10 (67%), Denver unders are 11-2 this season, and totals under 37 are 16-8 to the under (67%) since 2016, including 8-2 to the under from Week 15 forward.
If you're stuck picking a side for a contest? Kingsbury is 16-4-2 ATS (80%) as a road underdog, and he's 14-2-1 ATS (88%) as an underdog against coaches who haven't won a Super Bowl. We aren't going to get to use these Kingsbury trends much longer, so might as well put them to use.
The Pick: Lean Under 36.5 (Pass Cardinals +1.5) | Previously: Wait for QB news
Pick: Under 36.5 |
