In a never-ending menu of sharp PRO insight, we turn our attention to our newly-minted first touchdown odds model for the NFL season.
Leveraging proprietary data, our expert Sean Koerner is currently on an otherworldly 16-0 run, underscoring the accuracy and efficacy of our PRO Projections data.
In this article, we delve deep into our top projections for the first touchdown scorers for Week 3.
After previously covering our best anytime touchdown scorers and expert picks for Week 3, here are the biggest differences in our first touchdown odds compared to the market.
First Touchdown Odds, Expert First TD Projections for NFL Week 3
Transitioning into the core of our discussion, it’s crucial to note PRO Projections recommend bettors only tail projections with a 3.5% grade or higher.
None of the projections currently meet this threshold, but in a fluid market, prices change and you never know when Action PRO models can turn up a gaudy edge.
Despite this, here are the top five players to score first, listed by edge and utilizing the best available odds for Sunday NFL Week 3
Dolphins vs. Seahawks First TD Odds, Projections
De’Von Achane is listed with odds of +700.
Despite the Dolphins being underdogs in their matchup, our projections show Achane scoring the first touchdown against the Seahawks 0.15 of the time, leading to a 2.5% edge.
Although promising, this edge falls short of the betting threshold, suggesting no bet recommendation for Achane.
Jaguars vs. Bills First TD Odds, Projections
Next on our list is wide receiver Gabe Davis for Jaguars vs. Bills, with odds of +2000 (DraftKings) for his upcoming performance against his former team.
PRO Projections estimate a 0.07 likelihood of Davis scoring first in the Monday Night Football game, resulting in a 2.2% edge. While intriguing, the edge remains minimal, advising against placing a wager on Davis.
Chiefs vs. Falcons First TD Odds, Projections
Drake London’s odds are at +1300 at FanDuel for the Chiefs vs. Falcons game on Sunday Night Football.
Our projections suggest London scoring first 0.09 of the time, resulting in a 1.9% edge. Despite a positive edge, it’s still below the recommended betting threshold.
Eagles vs. Saints First TD Odds, Projections
Alvin Kamara’s odds are currently +450 at BetMGM. According to PRO Projections, Kamara has a 0.20 chance of scoring the first touchdown in a potentially high-scoring game, translating to a 1.9% edge.
Panthers vs. Raiders First TD Odds, Projections
Lastly, Zamir White’s odds are +700. Our projections estimate a likelihood of 0.16 for White to score the first touchdown vs. the lowly Panthers, which leads to another meager edge. Like the others, it doesn't quite reach the threshold necessary for a firm betting recommendation.
For bettors looking to dive deeper into NFL prop betting and leverage the sharp insights provided by PRO Projections, check out our full menu of NFL props and projections.
Also, click the link below to get full access to Koerner's picks, NFL projections and more!