2024-25 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds Tracker

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PlayerOdds
Joe Burrow - Cincinnati Bengals-250
Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinals+800
Sam Darnold - Minnesota Vikings+1000
Anthony Richardson - Indianapolis Colts+1200
Justin Herbert - Los Angeles Chargers+2000
Russell Wilson - Pittsburgh Steelers+2000
Damar Hamlin - Buffalo Bills+2000
Tim Patrick - Detroit Lions+2500
Cameron Heyward - Pittsburgh Steelers+2500
Kirk Cousins - Atlanta Falcons+3000
J.K. Dobbins - Los Angeles Chargers+3000
Christian Gonzalez - New England Patriots+5000
Nick Chubb - Cleveland Browns+5000
Aaron Rodgers - New York Jets+10000
T.J. Hockenson - Minnesota Vikings+10000
Joey Bosa - Los Angeles Chargers+12500
Mike Williams - Pittsburgh Steelers+12500
Mark Andrews - Baltimore Ravens+12500
Matthew Judon - Atlanta Falcons+12500
Tank Dell - Houston Texans+15000
Trevon Diggs - Dallas Cowboys+15000
C.J. Gardner-Johnson - Philadelphia Eagles+15000

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, updated in real-time. Confused? Learn more about how American odds work.

The NFL rewrote the language for what qualifies a player to be named Comeback Player of the Year after Joe Flacco edged Damar Hamlin last season.  

Flacco was out of the league before signing to Cleveland’s practice squad in late November. He was named the starter in December after the Browns suffered a litany of injuries and had a magical run leading into the playoffs. Meanwhile, Hamlin came back from a near-death experience and was a massive favorite for most of the year before eventually losing to Flacco.

As a result, the Associated Press altered the parameters for the award with the following language:

“The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season. The decision to provide this guidance was made last December but could not be implemented for the 2023 awards because the season was almost completed.”

As a result, quarterbacks returning from season-ending injuries top this year’s favorites in Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins and Anthony Richardson. They’re followed by running back Nick Chubb, who has the fifth-best odds after completely blowing out his knee Week 2 a year ago.

The AP Comeback Player of the Year is voted on by “a nationwide panel of 50 media members who regularly cover the league" before the playoffs begin.  First-place votes are worth five points while second are worth three and third one. Three finalists are announced at the end of January with the winner revealed at the NFL Honors ceremony the day before the Super Bowl.

2024-25 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds Comparison

Compare odds for the NFL Comeback Player of the Year across all major U.S. sportsbooks.

FUTURESConsensusCons.
Joe BurrowJ.Burrow
-603
N/A
-250
-750
-500
-1000
J.K. DobbinsJ.Dobbins
+900
N/A
+3000
+900
+550
+600
Sam DarnoldS.Darnold
+1548
N/A
+1000
+1600
+1500
+1500
Justin HerbertJ.Herbert
+2000
N/A
+2000
+2000
+10000
+6000
Tim PatrickT.Patrick
+2000
N/A
+2500
+2000
+4000
+2000
Damar HamlinD.Hamlin
+2500
N/A
+2000
+2500
+5000
+3000
Cameron HeywardC.Heyward
+3546
N/A
+2500
N/A
+6000
+3000
Kyler MurrayK.Murray
+4000
N/A
+800
+4000
+5000
+4000
Anthony RichardsonA.Richardson
+5000
N/A
+1200
+5000
+7500
+6000
Christian GonzalezC.Gonzalez
+5000
N/A
+5000
+5000
+6000
+6000
Russell WilsonR.Wilson
+7500
N/A
+2000
+7500
+7500
N/A
Kirk CousinsK.Cousins
+10000
N/A
+3000
+10000
N/A
N/A
Mark AndrewsM.Andrews
+11112
N/A
+12500
+10000
+15000
N/A
Mike WilliamsM.Williams
+12500
N/A
+12500
N/A
N/A
N/A
Matthew JudonM.Judon
+12500
N/A
+12500
N/A
N/A
+25000
Tank DellT.Dell
+15000
N/A
+15000
N/A
N/A
+25000
Grady JarrettG.Jarrett
+15000
N/A
N/A
+15000
N/A
N/A
Kareem HuntK.Hunt
+15000
N/A
N/A
+15000
N/A
N/A
T.J. HockensonT.Hockenson
+15000
N/A
+10000
+15000
+25000
+25000
Joey BosaJ.Bosa
+15000
N/A
+12500
+15000
+25000
N/A
Justin FieldsJ.Fields
+20000
N/A
N/A
+20000
N/A
N/A
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonC.Gardner-Johnson
+20000
N/A
+15000
+20000
+25000
N/A
Aaron RodgersA.Rodgers
+25000
N/A
+10000
+25000
+25000
+25000
Trevon DiggsT.Diggs
+25000
N/A
+15000
+25000
N/A
N/A
Nick ChubbN.Chubb
+30000
N/A
+5000
+30000
N/A
N/A
Keaton MitchellK.Mitchell
+30000
N/A
N/A
+30000
N/A
N/A
Bryce YoungB.Young
+30000
N/A
N/A
+30000
N/A
N/A

How to Win NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award & Past Winners

A few questions if you want to win Comeback Player of the Year:

  • Are you a quarterback? That'll help a lot.
  • Did you have an injury or medical condition that ended your season? Bonus points if it was so severe everyone thought you'd never play again.
  • If you weren't hurt, did you have a bounceback statistical season, and there were no other notable players returning from serious injury? OK, you've got a chance.

Comeback Player of the Year is a narrative-driven award, depending on who is eligible. And there's not really "eligibility." Different sportsbooks list different players, because they don't really know who can win. And it's kind of a messed up award.

Below I'll dive into previous winners, their statistical and narrative profiles, and much more, to help you make better decisions when betting subjective futures like this.

The Definition

The official definition: CPOY is given to the player "who shows perseverance in overcoming adversity, in the form of not being in the NFL the previous year, overcoming a severe injury, or simply a poor performance."

But what defines adversity? And does "overcoming a severe injury" still count if we saw them play at the end of last year?

I have lots of questions.

  • Titans RB Derrick Henry is the CPOY favorite in 2022, but he played in last season's playoffs. Can he still be Comeback Player of the Year when he already came back and we saw that he can still play? Same with Rams RB Cam Akers.
  • Browns QB Deshaun Watson is +1200. But no one's voting for him, right?
  • Cardinals WR Deandre Hopkins is listed at +8000. He's suspended for PEDs to start the year. Can you win after a PED suspension?
  • 49ers QB Trey Lance is +5000. He missed one game. What's he coming back from?

That leads to our definition: "CPOY is (usually) given to the player who missed most of the prior season due to serious injury and returned to form. The player is judged both on the reason he missed last season and performance the following season."

The Previous Winners

Most CPOY winners are coming off season-ending injuries. Since the AP started giving out the award again in 1998, here's how each player won:

  • Injury: 15
  • Bounceback Performance: 5
  • Medical Condition: 3
  • Return to NFL: 2

Many players who won after being injured missed the entire season prior.

Joe Burrow appears to have missed the fewest games to end the previous season (six), but his injury was particularly gruesome and notable since he was the No. 1 overall pick.

The Positions

Does the award gravitate toward a certain position?

This is a quarterback award, unless:

  • Another player had a serious medical condition and returned to action.
  • There was no injured quarterback.

Here's the positional breakdown since 1998:

All three players who won after suffering serious medical conditions were non-quarterbacks.

  • LB Tedy Bruschi (stroke)
  • RB Garrison Heart (avascular necrosis)
  • DB Eric Berry (cancer)

The five players who won only due to improved performance from the year prior were quarterbacks.

When in doubt, it's a quarterback.

The Voting

How does the voting work?

Who votes: A nationwide panel of media votes on the award. The NFL uses the AP's award as its official one, though several other outlets also give it out.

How many votes: Voters pick one player, so there are only 50 total ballots.

When do they vote? End of the regular season.

Any voting biases? There doesn't appear to be a bias toward high-profile teams — Dak Prescott missed more games in 2020 than Joe Burrow, put up better numbers in 2021, yet finished second to Burrow.

How many players get votes? It depends on the year. When there's not an obvious return-from-injury candidate, the voting can get pretty spread out.

When Phillip Rivers won in 2013 with a bounceback statistical season and no injury, 12 different players got votes. Rivers won with just 13/50 votes.

When Alex Smith won after nearly losing his leg, he got 49/50 votes.

The Narrative

Does a player need some "positive narrative" in their favor to win?

Yes. 100%.

Players who win this award typically have a major obstacle to overcome, then bring their team back to the playoffs, or at least improve.

It's almost always a feel-good story.

I won't pretend I've diligently followed this award for 25 years, but the only winner who would've gotten blowback was Michael Vick, two years after he was released from prison for his involvement in a dogfighting ring.

That's why it's impossible to imagine Deshaun Watson ever winning CPOY, because voters won't want to back him after sexual assault allegations. He was the second favorite (+500) at DraftKings in 2022.

The Stats

What kinds of stats do voters care about?

Stats sort of matter here. There seems to be a ratio of severity of injury/illness to performance.

1) If your injury/illness was so serious that everyone is shocked you even played football again, your stats don't need to be quite as impressive.

That's the 2020 Alex Smith or 2015 Eric Berry: After a horrific leg injury in 2018, Smith started the final six games for Washington in 2020 and went 5-1 to win the division at 7-9. He might have won even if they went 0-6. Berry was diagnosed with Hodgkin's lymphoma in 2014 and played well in 2015. Defensive players don't usually win, but his reason for missing time was so serious it didn't matter.

2) If you had a more common injury like an ACL tear, you likely need to be a top player at your position.

That's the 2016 Jordy Nelson or 2017 Keenan Allen: The player had a great year, but nothing earth-shattering. Allen tore his ACL in the 2016 opener. He posted career-highs in catches and yards in 2017. Both were top-5 among receivers.

Nelson got hurt in the preseason and missed all of 2015, then tied for first in receiving touchdowns and was fourth in yards the next season.

The Team

Does the winner have to play for a good team?

CPOY winners mostly play for teams that improved over the previous year.

The only recent CPOY winner with a losing record was Smith, whose injury was so horrific he probably just needed to get back on the field. And even though Washington went 7-9, it won the NFC East.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Past Winners

Recent NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award winners include excellent performances from those bouncing back from significant injuries. A non-quarterback hasn't won the award since 2017, but could this change in the 2024-25 season?

Check out some recent winners of the CPOY in the NFL.

Data via SportsOddsHistory

Year Winner Position
2014 Rob Gronkowski TE
2015 Eric Berry S
2016 Jordy Nelson WR
2017 Keenan Allen WR
2018 Andrew Luck QB
2019 Ryan Tannehill QB
2020 Alex Smith QB
2021 Joe Burrow QB
2022 Geno Smith QB
2023 Joe Flacco QB
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