2024-25 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds: Who Will Bring it Home?

49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is the most recent recipient of the NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award. Can he go back-to-back? Check out the list of the most recent winners of this prestigious award.

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Who Wins NFL Offensive Player of the Year?

The NFL's Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) is awarded to the league's most outstanding offensive player each season. While quarterbacks have historically dominated the NFL MVP award, the OPOY has often been more diverse, with wide receivers and running backs also receiving significant recognition. Analyzing the type of players who typically win this award provides insight into the attributes and positions that are most valued in the NFL's offensive landscape.

Nowadays, it's mainly given to the "fantasy football" MVP -- the best skill player who is not a quarterback.

Quarterbacks: The Commanders of the Offense

Quarterbacks have a natural advantage in the OPOY race due to their central role in any team's offense. As the leaders who touch the ball on nearly every offensive play, quarterbacks have the opportunity to influence the game in numerous ways—through passing, rushing, and decision-making. The modern NFL, with its emphasis on high-powered passing attacks, has only increased the visibility and importance of elite quarterbacks.

But to win the OPOY, a quarterback typically needs to have an exceptional season, often breaking records or leading the league in key statistical categories like passing yards, touchdowns, and passer rating. For example, in recent years, quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have won the award after seasons in which they posted astronomical numbers and led their teams to top-seeded playoff positions, but they don't win it every year. These players are often dual-threat quarterbacks, capable of making plays with both their arms and legs, which adds another dimension to their candidacy for the OPOY.

Running Backs: The Workhorses

Running backs have historically been strong contenders for the OPOY award, particularly when they achieve milestones like 2,000 rushing yards in a season or lead the league in touchdowns. Unlike the MVP award, which has increasingly become a quarterback-dominated accolade, the OPOY has more frequently gone to running backs who carry a heavy workload and are integral to their team's success.

For a running back to win the OPOY, they typically need to be the focal point of their team's offense, often carrying the ball 20-30 times per game and contributing significantly in the passing game as well. Players like Derrick Henry and Adrian Peterson epitomize the kind of physical, dominant runners who can win this award. Henry won the OPOY in 2020 after rushing for over 2,000 yards, showcasing his rare combination of power, speed, and durability. The ability to break long runs, score touchdowns, and consistently gain tough yards between the tackles are all traits that have helped running backs win the OPOY in the past.

Running backs are less often focal points of their offenses, so it's become a receiver award, too.

Wide Receivers: The Game-Changers

While quarterbacks and running backs have traditionally been the most common recipients of the OPOY, wide receivers have also earned the award, particularly in recent years. For a wide receiver to win the OPOY, they must typically have a record-setting season, leading the league in receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns. In addition, they often need to be the go-to option for their quarterback in crucial situations and make plays that change the course of games.

Cooper Kupp's 2021 season is a prime example of what it takes for a wide receiver to win the OPOY. Kupp led the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, becoming just the fourth player in history to achieve the "triple crown" in receiving. His ability to create separation, make contested catches, and gain yards after the catch made him indispensable to the Los Angeles Rams' offense and a clear choice for the OPOY.

Dual-Threat Players: Versatility is Key

In addition to excelling in their primary roles, many OPOY winners have also demonstrated versatility, contributing in multiple facets of the game. For example, players who excel in both rushing and receiving, or quarterbacks who are also major threats in the running game, often have an edge in the OPOY race. This versatility makes them more valuable and difficult to defend against, as they can create mismatches and exploit weaknesses in opposing defenses.

Lamar Jackson’s 2019 OPOY season highlighted the impact of dual-threat ability. Jackson set a new standard for dual-threat quarterbacks, leading the NFL in touchdown passes while also breaking the single-season rushing record for a quarterback. His ability to make plays with his legs added a unique dimension to the Baltimore Ravens' offense, making him one of the most difficult players to defend against in the league.