The betting odds for Thursday Night Football between the New York Giants and New England Patriots are on the move.
The spread currently sits at Patriots -16.5 with the over/under at 42.5. Two of our NFL betting experts, Stuckey and PJ Walsh, both made early bets on this game.
Let's dive into their thoughts on how you can beat the market on this primetime game.
Odds Tuesday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Stuckey: Under 42.5
As I’ve been screaming for weeks, the totals market on the open still hasn’t adjusted to the 2019 Patriots, who are more like the early to mid 2000s Patriots. For my money, this is the best defensive team in football, led by three outstanding cover corners in the New England man-heavy scheme. That trio allows them to do so much from a scheme perspective with their defensive front.
Also, despite having the greatest QB of all-time, New England’s offense is no where close to as explosive as it has been in recent years. A lot of the drop-off has occurred due to things that have been out of their control: Gronk’s retirement, Antonio Brown’s behavior and a plethora of key injuries on that side of the ball, especially on the offensive line and to FB James Develin, who was such an integral part of their running game.
New England has even more potential injuries on offense on a short week with RB Rex Burkhead, WR Phillip Dorsett and TE Ben Watson. And without Watson, who has yet to play this year, the tight end position is essentially non-existent in this offense.
Speaking of injuries, the Giants will go up to Foxboro with a rookie QB and a completely decimated offense. Everyone knows Saquon Barkley is out, and the Giants have now lost his backup, Wayne Gallman. New York also recently lost WR Russell Shepard, and Sterling Shepard also will be out on Thursday. Oh, and tight end Evan Engram may sit out, as well. How will the Giants move the ball? I’m not sure, especially on a short week, limiting what they can do from a scheme and personnel perspective.
Depending on the number you got each week, Patriots unders are 5-0 so far this year. And the only one in question was against the Jets, who scored two late non-offensive touchdowns to ruin the under for those who got it late. Without a bunch of turnovers, fluke plays and special team scores, I think Patriot unders go to 6-0.
This number is moving fast, though. There are still some 42.5s out there, and I wouldn’t bet this below 42.
PJ Walsh: Giants-Patriots Under 42.5
In a vacuum, there’s little reason to think the Giants are going to be able to do anything offensively in this game. Stuckey mentioned the Giants' plethora of injuries, and that's not great news considering the Patriots boast the top-ranked defense in both yards per game (238.4) and points per game (6.8) in the league.
In addition, the weather forecast in Foxboro is downright brutal for Thursday night. Sports Insights’ weather data is projecting cross-field winds of 20 mph and a 66% chance of rain.
According to our Bet Labs data, unders are 467-365-10 (56.1%) when games are played in steady breezes of at least 10 mph.
I’m comfortable betting this down to 41.5.
