The Thursday Night Football game for NFL Week 3 doesn’t stack up to most.
It’s an ugly game that has the 49ers as double-digit favorites over the Giants. Star running back Saquon Barkley is out and Brandon Aiyuk is questionable. Not to mention it’s never easy to trust Kyle Shanahan in the prop market because of his unpredictable usage offensively.
So that brings me to my same game parlay for Giants vs. 49ers.
This is unlike the one last week that cashed — it’s a long shot. This should be bet with low stakes, something to get you through an ugly game that could be a blowout.
I’ll start from the lowest odds and work my way up, as the same-game parlay sits at +2607. Here’s my "49ers blow out the Giants" long-shot same game parlay for Thursday Night Football.
Daniel Jones 40+ Rushing Yards (-114)
The loss of Barkley is substantial. He played an instrumental role in New York’s comeback against Arizona last week and is the main cog to this offense. I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to say that San Francisco will have no issue with this Giants offensive line — they’re down Andrew Thomas and Ben Bredeson — and Matt Breida isn’t exactly an explosive running back.
I expect this to translate into more designed runs for Jones. A negative game script also proves beneficial to this prop, because Jones will find himself dropping back against the No. 1 pass rush, per PFF.
That means Jones will likely scramble under pressure. The Giants receiving corps isn’t exactly dominant, and we saw how Dallas was able to completely disrupt any offensive rhythm.
Yet it was Jones who still eclipsed 40+ yards in that 40-0 loss. He added 59 the following week against Arizona, another negative game script that led to high passing volume. Both these were with Barkley in the backfield, too.
If there’s one thing I’ve learned about Jones over the years, it’s that he’s not afraid to utilize his best trait — his legs.
Deebo Samuel Anytime Touchdown (+115)
Christian McCaffrey’s touchdown odds are incredibly juiced down. There’s absolutely no value in taking the prop, but I think it’s worth taking a look at Deebo Samuel.
Samuel is one of the most talented skill position players in the NFL. He’s explosive and can take advantage of 1-on-1s. Through two weeks, he’s garnered 18 targets, not to mention he’s carried the ball seven times, one for a touchdown in Week 2.
While McCaffrey likely touches the ball about 5-8 more times than Samuel, both are high-level threats in the end zone. We could very well see a goal-line handoff to Samuel, or a slant broken off for a huge gain.
Brandon Aiyuk’s injury also looms large here. Not only is he a man-to-man killer — the Giants run man at a high rate — but he was the most-targeted receiver in the red zone last season.
The Giants are starting a pair of rookie cornerbacks on Thursday. Deonte Banks (46.1) and Tre Hawkins III (61.0) both have below-average coverage grades, per PFF. Banks is the first-round pick from Maryland and will likely be tasked with the heavy load covering Samuel, another positive for the wideout.
Shanahan will put the ball in Samuel’s hands 10+ times in a game. Whether it’s through the air or on the ground, Samuel should have no issue picking apart this Giants defense.
Elijah Mitchell 2nd Half Touchdown (+370)
This is where the parlay takes a jump. There’s no doubt in my mind that McCaffrey is the best running back in the NFL. He commands a large workload, and it’s been unfortunate that Elijah Mitchell was pushed to the side because of it.
Over the first two weeks of the season, McCaffrey carried the ball 42 times for 268 yards. He added six receptions for 36 yards and played every single snap in Week 2’s win over the Rams. But it was what Shanahan said after the game that leads me here:
“We’ve definitely got to get Elijah in there more and do better with our rotation than we did yesterday,” Shanahan said. “That wasn’t the plan going in. It just ended up that way and I’ve got to make sure that doesn’t happen.”
Yes, McCaffrey is RB1 in San Francisco, but this game sets up to be a blowout. McCaffrey has had a long history of injuries, and if this game becomes similar to Week 1’s blowout over Pittsburgh, then we could very well see Mitchell take on the bulk of the carries in the second half.
For what it’s worth, while McCaffrey eclipsed his 17.5 rush attempt prop in both games this season, he only cleared it in 3-of-14 with San Francisco last year.
Don’t sleep on Mitchell. He averaged 6.2 yards per carry last season. In all five games he played in — Mitchell missed most of the season due to injuries — he never finished with fewer than 35 yards. And in that 35-yard game, he left in the third quarter.
I’m trusting Shanahan to stick to his word here. Again, this is a longshot parlay that follows the narrative that San Francisco will blow out the Giants. In that case, I’m expecting they’ll run the clock through Mitchell in the second half, and in that case, the powerful back will be more than capable of finding the end zone.
Giants vs. 49ers Same Game Parlay (+2607)
- Daniel Jones 40+ Rushing Yards (-114)
- Deebo Samuel Anytime Touchdown (+115)
- Elijah Mitchell 2H Touchdown Scorer (+370)
