The middle game of the NFL Thanksgiving slate on Thursday features an NFC East clash between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys. The game is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on FOX.
This game has the lowest total of the NFL Week 13 slate, but nonetheless, I have two Giants vs. Cowboys anytime touchdown scorer bets for Thursday.
Giants vs. Cowboys Anytime Touchdown Picks
- WR Malik Nabers +240 (Caesars)
- WR Jalen Tolbert +380 (DraftKings)
Malik Nabers Anytime Touchdown (+210)
Nabers saw nine targets last week with Tommy DeVito at quarterback, and while most of those looks were in the second half, Nabers was clearly upset in the postgame interview about his usage.
I believe he will be heavily involved on Thursday. Any WR that averages 11.4 targets per game shouldn’t be over +200, regardless of the quarterback situation or defensive matchup.
When these teams played in Week 5, Nabers was a beast — 11 catches and 115 yards — and there’s a decent chance Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs could still be limited for this one.
Jalen Tolbert +380
The first option you likely want on the Cowboys is WR CeeDee Lamb. He scored against the Giants in Week 5 and he has the best receiver metrics versus zone and man defenses.
At +175, my biggest trepidation is his quarterback — Cooper Rush doesn’t seem to like to push the ball down field.
Lamb had 11 catches in Week 12 but only 67 yards. In four games with Rush, Lamb has 32 catches (46 targets) for a measly 228 yards. For some WRs, averaging 7.1 yards per catch would be great, but for Lamb, that’s a disaster. Of those 46 targets, only four have been inside the 20-yard line.
If you still want to bet on Lamb, I wouldn’t talk you out of it since the Giants rank last in defensive DVOA versus WR1s. And of the 10 TDs they've allowed to WRs in 2024, six of those have gone to the WR1.
For me, I’d rather bank on WR2 Jalen Tolbert (+380). He’s caught two touchdowns with Rush at QB, plays over 80% of snaps and has the same amount of red-zone looks as Lamb in the last four games.
