Giants vs. Cowboys Odds
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Four weeks into the NFL season, the NFC East is historically bad.
All four NFC East teams combine for just a 3-12-1 record with the Eagles holding the division lead with just one win by virtue of a 23-23 tie against the Cincinnati Bengals. If there's a silver lining, it's that this division is wide open — even for the 0-4 New York Giants, who head to AT&T Stadium to take on the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon.
Can America's Team get back on track, or will the Giants pick up their first win of the season? It appears the value is on New York, but let's take a closer look.
New York Giants
The New York Giants' inability to score is alarming, to say the least.
While the rest of the NFL is scoring at a historical level, the Giants have mustered just 11.7 points per game with a league-low three offensive touchdowns through the first four games of this season. The Giants haven't scored a touchdown in two consecutive games for the first time since 1998, as kicker Graham Gano has provided all of their scoring with six field goals.
Without Saquon Barkley, the Giants don't have many playmakers to scare opposing teams, and Daniel Jones hasn't made the leap you'd expect from a second-year quarterback. It's no coincidence the Giants are ranked toward the bottom of nearly every offensive metric, as they're 31st in total offense (278 yards per game), last in red-zone production (20%), 29th in total success rate (43%), 28th in explosive play rate (only 8% of their plays go for 20 or more yards) and dead-last in early-down success rate.
New York's defense may be the only thing keeping it competitive this season; it ranks 14th in points allowed (24 points per game), sixth in yards allowed (328.25), 11th in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA, and first in explosive plate rate, allowing only 6% of plays to go for 20 or more yards.
Despite this, the Giants secondary had to struggles at times. It gave up 343 yards passing to a Nick Mullens-led 49ers team without George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. It also allowed 229 yards and three touchdowns to Ben Roethlisberger in his first game back from a year-long absence.
This Cowboys offense will be the best it's faced thus far. The Giants defense will certainly have their work cut out for them.
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Dallas Cowboys
With Dak Prescott putting up video game numbers, the Cowboys offense is the polar opposite of what we've seen from the Giants thus far.
Prescott's 1,690 passing yards are the most in NFL history through four games, and he's the first player in NFL history to throw for 450 yards in three consecutive games. Of course, these numbers are skewed by the Cowboys facing double-digit deficits in each of the last three games against the Falcons, Seahawks and Browns that forced them to throw their way back into games.
Still, the Cowboys have weapons everywhere.
Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Shultz and Cedrick Wilson have helped account for 22 explosive plays this season. Even with a patchwork offensive line that's played multiple lineups and will go without starting tackles Tyron Smith and La'el Collins for the rest of the season, the only thing that can stop this offense is itself.
Protecting the football, though, has been Dallas' Achilles heel and would go a long way toward helping its struggling defense.
The Cowboys are dead-last among NFL teams in turnover differential (-7), first turnovers (-9) and are tied for 31st in takeaways (2). It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize a team can't win in the NFL if it's turning the ball over more than its opponent. The Cowboys' first four opponents have turned their nine turnovers into 45 points, as each has taken place on their side of the 50-yard line. When you add in the Cowboys being 4-of-9 on fourth down, they actually have more turnovers than their numbers indicate.
The Cowboys defense has allowed 146 points through the first four games of the season. As great as they are offensively, they are equally as bad on the defensive side of the ball, as they've allowed 430 yards per game this season, ranking 30th among NFL teams. This Dallas defense is also allowing 14% of runs to go for 20 or more yards and 10% of pass plays to go for 20 or more yards, both in the bottom-10 in the league.
Coming off a game in which it allowed 508 total yards and 307 yards rushing to the Browns, this defense appears to have hit rock bottom. Fortunately for the Cowboys, the Giants don't have Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry.
Giants-Cowboys Pick
Despite both teams being one game apart in the standings, I believe these are two teams headed in opposite directions.
I faded Dallas last week because I felt its defense would put it at a disadvantage against a Browns team with weapons. The Giants have no such weapons to punish the Cowboys for their defensive deficiencies.
The Giants rank dead last in Football Outsiders' offensive DVOA.
By comparison, their previous opponents rank:
- Rams: Second
- Falcons: 21st
- Seahawks: Third
- Browns: Ninth
Oddsmakers opened this line at 9.5, and while we've seen this line drop, I don't agree with the line move even with the absence of Smith. Despite issues on the offensive line, the Cowboys are in another class offensively, and the Giants don't have the firepower to match up.
We could see a scenario in which this game gets out of hand, as the Giants trade field goals for the Cowboys' touchdowns. Should the Cowboys clean up their turnovers and avoid a negative turnover differential as they have in the past three games, they should win this one going away.
I would also recommend adding this into a six-point teasers with the Cardinals.
PICK: Cowboys -8.5
TEASER: Cowboys -2.5/Cardinals -1
[Bet $1 on Cowboys -8.5 at BetMGM and win $100 if there’s a touchdown]
