After one of the best teams in the NFL kicks off Thanksgiving against the reigning No. 1 overall pick and before two of the NFL's most electrifying offenses face off, we have a Giants vs. Cowboys parlay.
I’m following the trends for my pick against the spread, recent performance on the game total and the matchup for my player prop. We have every market covered and come out to a +800 bet at DraftKings.
These three legs all don't exactly correlate well, which gives us higher odds. Normally, when you're taking the under, you wouldn't add a touchdown scorer to your parlay. Because I've done that here, though, we're getting some better odds. And why not do that for a game that features two backup quarterbacks for teams that are going nowhere this season?
Let’s lay out my three legs and get to my NFL parlay to begin the Turkey Day tripleheader.
Giants vs. Cowboys Parlay on Thanksgiving
- Cowboys ML (-170)
- Under 37.5 (-112)
- CeeDee Lamb Anytime Touchdown (+180)
Parlay Odds: +800 | $10 Bet Wins $80
Leg 1: Cowboys ML (-170)
Leg 2: Under 37.5 (-112)
This comes down to these offenses, and I have more faith in Cooper Rush than Tommy DeVito. (Wow, what great options.)
The Cowboys haven’t exactly been prolific in Rush’s two starts. He threw for 354 yards against the Texans two weeks ago, but most of those came in garbage time and he only averaged 6.4 yards per attempt.
Then, last week against the Commanders, the Cowboys only had 10 points entering the fourth quarter before getting two touchdowns via kick-return touchdowns. Rush also had two touchdown passes in the second half.
Rush showed that he could make a play. Tommy DeVito did not.
DeVito threw for 189 yards against the Buccaneers and ran for another 32, but he simply doesn’t have the arm to unlock Malik Nabers. Operating under that assumption, there aren’t any downfield weapons I’m too concerned with for the Giants.
The Cowboys played at the fastest pace in the NFL with Dak Prescott under center, but they rank 25th in Weeks 11 and 12 with Rush. The Giants, meanwhile, ranked 20th in pace in Week 12, but that was also facing a trailing game script. Ideally, New York will want to establish the run more instead of facing a deficit from the start.
Neither defense is playing well, with New York ranking 23rd in Weighted DVOA and Dallas 25th, so there’s no edge there. Micah Parsons is back for the Cowboys, though, and he made an impact with two sacks and three QB hits against Washington.
Ultimately, I don’t want to lay the points with the Giants, especially more than a field goal, so I’ll just have them losing. I don’t trust either team’s offense either since neither produced last week, so I’ll take the under, as well.
Leg 3: CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD Scorer (+180)
CeeDee Lamb certainly isn’t the explosive player he was with Dak Prescott under center, but that isn’t his fault. Rush severely limits Lamb’s upside as a downfield threat, as he’s averaging just 8.9 yards per reception over the Cowboys’ last two games.
The key here, though, is that Lamb has been targeted 12 times in each of those games and has a combined 18 receptions.
What that tells us is that Rush is looking for Lamb a lot on high-percentage throws. The duo has connected on 75% of its looks in the last two games.
The Cowboys don’t have many other options but to get Lamb the ball. Lamb only has one red-zone target over the last two weeks with Rush starting, but he’s tied for eighth among all NFL wide receivers on the season with 13.
I’m betting on the best offensive player in the game to score a touchdown and for his team to make that happening a priority.
