Happy Turkey Day, everyone.
My gift to you on this non-gift-giving holiday is picks from the Action Labs Player Props tool, which uses Sean Koerner's projections to find edges in the props market.
For Giants vs. Cowboys, I found three picks on two players. Subscribe today to get access to more.
CeeDee Lamb
Over 5.5 Receptions (-106, FanDuel)
For the sake of this prop, we’ll ignore Lamb’s numbers with Cooper Rush under center and focus on his production with a healthy Dad Prescott.
In five games with Prescott this season, Lamb has only gone over this total once, but it’s not for a lack of volume. The Cowboys’ WR1 has just 27 catches on 44 targets in those five games, numbers that are skewed by a bizarre two-catch, 11-target game in the opener against the Buccaneers.
Since Prescott has returned, Lamb has four, five, 11 and five catches. He likely would have gone over this 5.5 total last week against the Vikings, but the Cowboys were so dominant there was no need to throw the ball more than necessary.
This matchup is really what sets Lamb up for success, though. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, the Giants rank 25th in the NFL against opposing No. 1 receivers, which sets up well for Lamb, who had eight catches in the first meeting back in Week 3.
Action Labs projects Lamb for six catches exactly on Thanksgiving, and you can get his over at -106 on FanDuel.
Pick: CeeDee Lamb Over 5.5 Receptions |
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Saquon Barkley
Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
The Cowboys defense ranks 10th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, but it has looked vulnerable against the run recently.
Dallas has allowed a player to go over this total in three of its last four games, all of which were against the NFC North. Here’s how they performed against each team:
- Week 7, Jamaal Williams: 15 carries, 79 yards
- Week 8, Khalil Herbert: 16 carries, 99 yards
- Week 10, Aaron Jones: 24 carries, 138 yards
- Week 11, Dalvin Cook: 11 carries, 72 yards
It’s likely that if last week’s game against the Vikings was more competitive, Cook would have easily cleared 74.5 rushing yards.
It should also be noted that David Montgomery added 53 rushing yards against Dallas for the Bears, while A.J. Dillon had 65 for the Packers.
The Cowboys have allowed more than 200 rushing yards in two of their last three games. One of those games was against Justin Fields, but clearly Herbert and Montgomery thrived.
While Daniel Jones is more than capable with his legs, this run game goes through Saquon Barkley, who has gone over this total in six of 10 games this season.
Barkley is averaging 4.5 yards per carry. That means he needs 16.7 carries to get to 75 rushing yards. He has at least 18 carries in seven of his 10 games.
Assuming the Giants don’t suffer the same fate as the Vikings last week, which would force them to abandon the run, Barkley is good value here. He’s projected for 83 rushing yards on Thanksgiving by Action Labs.
Pick: Saquon Barkley Over 74.5 Rushing Yards |
Saquon Barkley
Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (BetMGM)
Now, onto a Barkley under.
You might be thinking, “Barkley should be active in the passing game. The Cowboys are 9.5-point favorites. New York will be playing catchup.”
Well, the Giants have lost two of their last three games. In those losses, Barkley has posted receiving lines of 3-9-0 and 2-13-0. It’s not that Matt Breida is playing passing-down snaps either. Barkley is around an 80% snap count.
Barkley hasn’t gone over this total in the Giants’ last three games, though, and he’s gone under in six of 10 games this season.
Action Labs projects Barkley for 17.8 receiving yards and to get his yardage fill on the ground.
