Daniel Bellinger
Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115; BetMGM)
Bellinger averaged a 96% routes run rate from Weeks 15-17, which led all tight ends. But despite truly elite usage, he only averaged 24 yards per game over that stretch.
His routes run rate fell to 82% last week against the Vikings, as Lawrence Cager saw a huge increase in playing time with a 30% routes run rate. My guess is Cager's 8/69/0 receiving game in Week 18 earned him more playing time. He is a former receiver and could give the Giants' passing attack a bit more pop.
It’s going to be much tougher for Bellinger to clear this number with a decrease in playing time, especially against an Eagles defense that ranks sixth in DVOA against TEs.
In fact, his playing time may take an even bigger dip because he didn’t stay in to pass block on a single snap in the Wild Card Round. Typically, Bellinger stays in to block on an average of 2.5 plays, so his routes run rate may fall lower if he stays in to block at his typical rate and the Giants continue to use Cager at a similar clip.
While Bellinger has a 91% catch rate on the year, and a low aDot of 4.1, it’s a rate that’s likely unsustainable. It also means he could conceivably catch three passes and stay under this number, like he did the previous time he played against the Eagles in Week 14, when he went for 3/19/0.
Between his high catch rate and low aDot, something has to give going forward and it will only make it more difficult for him to clear this total. I’m projecting Bellinger's median closer to 19.5 and would only bet this down to 22.5 because every yard in a market like this is massive.
Dallas Goedert
Under 4.5 Receptions (-114; FanDuel)
Goedert cleared this number when these teams met in Week 18 with a 6/46/0 receiving line. But while the Giants struggle against TEs (31st in DVOA), there are some underlying factors that may prevent Goedert from catching at least five passes.
In Weeks 1-17, Goedert stayed in to pass block eight times. In Week 18, he stayed in to pass block six times. The huge increase in pass blocks was likely due to the fact the Giants blitz at the highest rate in the league and Jalen Hurts needed added protection.
While Goedert’s target rate has been identical whether opposing defenses blitz or not, his catch rate dips from 83% when teams don’t blitz to 76% when teams blitz.
The Giants also use man coverage at the highest rate in the league. Goedert’s target % (the % of targets to snaps) drops from 58.2% vs. zone to 23.9 vs. man. That -34.3% drop is the biggest decrease against man of all full-time pass-catchers on the Eagles.
So while it’s true the Giants struggle to defend TEs, the overall volume might not be there for Goedert to clear 4.5 receptions.
I’m projecting Goedert closer to 4.1 in this spot. There is a chance he will be able to do a ton of damage on the catches he makes, so I think the market to attack would be his receptions and I would bet this down to -130.
Pick: Dallas Goedert Under 4.5 Receptions |
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