For the third time this season, the Philadelphia Eagles and New YorkGiants square off. This time, though, it’s in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Entering off a bye, the Eagles are back to full health and expect a full go from quarterback Jalen Hurts. The Giants, meanwhile, took down the MinnesotaVikings on the road to advance past the Wild Card round.
The Eagles enter as 7.5-point favorites at home with a total just shy of 50.
Here’s a same-game parlay for Giants vs. Eagles, with a bonus pick.
Saquon Barkley
Over 28.5 Receiving Yards
As is tradition with playoffs, teams involve their superstars more. Snap counts go up as does usage. In what should be a trailing game script throughout, backing the versatile Saquon Barkley in the receiving game is a perfect spot.
Barkley has cleared 33 receiving yards or more in three of his last four games. His route participation rate hit 95% against the Vikings, where he caught five passes for 56 yards. He’s been heavily involved in the air attack — especially in losses — and Saturday should be no different.
In his lone game against the Eagles this season, Barkley caught two passes for 20 yards. It was a 26-point blowout and he played just 20 snaps; Matt Breida (23) and even Gary Brightwell (21) out-snapped the superstar.
That won’t happen in a win or go home game, no matter the score. Barkley will be consistently involved and should see 5+ targets once again.
Tack on the fact he is incredibly explosive and can break a long one in open space, and I love this prop. And if it is worth anything, my colleague Chris Raybon is also on the same side here, which he discussed on ‘Green Dot Daily!’
Philadelphia is 24th in DVOA against running back passes, leaving plenty of opportunity for check downs and big plays out of Barkley.
Eagles
-6.5 Alternate Spread
I think this line of 7.5 is a bit of an overreaction to the Giants’ win against Minnesota in what many at the Action Network have coined as the Fraud Bowl.
The Eagles are finally fully healthy with both Jalen Hurts and Lane Johnson back and starting on Saturday night, and this feels like another blowout victory in the works.
We saw what happened in Week 14 when the Eagles blew the doors of New York, 48-22, in a game where Philly dominated the rushing attack. Tack on Dallas Goedert to an already strong passing game and this is a perfect spot for Philly. Oh yeah, and that blowout win came on the road.
We’re not going to get that same performance from Daniel Jones in the Wild Card against one of the worst defenses (Vikings). The level of competition has taken a significant step up; Jones finished 18-for-27 with 169 passing yards against Philly last time out.
The Eagles defense has been legit all season long. They’re third in defensive efficiency, per PFF, including the No. 1 pass rush. Their weakness is in the run game, but given the projected game script for this game, New York won’t be able to stick to the run game.
An early lead will lead to more passing and force Jones to make plays with his arm. That benefits our other leg of Barkley’s over but also plays perfectly in the spread here.
Also, for what it’s worth, the Giants are 19th in pass rush and all the way down at 28th in pass coverage. The Eagles should be able to score with ease once again against a bad Giants defense.
Rather than taking the 7.5, which the line currently sits at, for the sake of comfortability and flexibility — we have that with same-game parlays — I’m taking the alt line under the key number of 7.
DeVonta Smith
60+ Receiving Yards
The final leg of this same-game parlay revolves around the consistency and excellence that has been Devonta Smith after the second half of the season.
Smith has flown over the 60-yard mark in each of his last six games and seven of his last eight. In that span, he has never been targeted less than eight times and has broken the 100-yard mark on four separate occasions.
This is a great matchup for Smith who has finished with 60+ yards both times against the Giants this season. I’ve already touched on NY’s 28th pass coverage rating and given the attention that’ll be shown toward A.J. Brown, Smith is the perfect candidate to take advantage.
Not only has Smith been as consistent as it gets, but he’s produced no matter the quarterback — Jalen Hurts or Gardner Minshew — and is a big-play threat that can eclipse half this number in one shot.
Smith has broken receptions for 28+ in four of his last six games. His 9.9 aDOT and 1.98 Y/RR is a perfect recipe for an Eagles team that should have its way in the passing game.
Assuming this game is not a total blowout — he still hauled in 64 yards in the 48-22 win — there is value on Smith to take advantage. The Giants doubled Justin Jefferson often last week and limited him and the same could happen for Brown.
But the outcome was T.J. Hockenson’s 10-reception, 129-yard day. Even Adam Thielen broke the 50-yard mark for just the second time since December.
There’s a lot of ways for Smith to find success here and while Philly should be able to control the run game through Miles Sanders and Hurts, there will be enough passing volume and targets for Smith to clear this number with ease.
The Parlay (+409):
- Saquon Barkley o28.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
- Philadelphia Eagles Alt Spread (-6.5)
- DeVonta Smith 60+ Receiving Yards (-144)
Pick: Giants-Eagles Same Game Parlay |
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Bonus Pick
Daniel Bellinger u22.5 Receiving Yards
I tailed my colleague Sean Koerner here and for good reason — not just because he’s a prop master. Daniel Bellinger saw his routes run rate drop from 96% from Weeks 15-17 to just 82% against the Vikings. Even in that time of high usage, he averaged just 24 yards per game.
There’s just so much working against Bellinger here. He has an aDOT of 4.1 and plays an Eagles defense that’s sixth against tight ends. He hauled in three passes in the 48-22 loss, but it went for just 19 yards.
Now that Lawrence Cager is seeing extended run and higher usage, Bellinger is becoming overvalued in the market.
Adding Bellinger to the same-game parlay would take your odds to (+888).
