Giants at Jets Odds & Picks
- Odds: Giants -2.5
- Over/Under: 44.5
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
It's been a rough season for both New York teams with a combined record of 2-7 straight up and against the spread at MetLife stadium.
Though neither team has been an offensive juggernaut, this total has risen from 41.5 at opening to 44.5 as of Thursday with 67% betting tickets backing the over. Should you put your trust and money with the public?
Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, from the biggest mismatch to projected odds and more.
Giants-Jets Injury Report
It’s always tricky to tell how healthy the Jets are because most weeks they list 15-plus players on their injury report, and a significant chunk still end up playing. They’re expected to be without linebacker C.J. Mosley (groin) again, and Le’Veon Bell (knee) is expected to suit up after returning to practice on Thursday.
The Giants, meanwhile, are expected to be without two of their key offensive players in Sterling Shepard (concussion) and Evan Engram (foot). Golden Tate is the most appealing receiving option since he’s seen 36 targets over the past four weeks. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Jamison Crowder vs. Giants Slot Corners
The slot has been an issue all season long for the Giants. They finally benched Grant Haley, an undrafted second-year corner from Penn State who allowed 31-of-36 targets in his coverage to be completed for 353 yards, second-most among slot corners, per Pro Football Focus. Unsurprisingly, Haley’s PFF coverage grade is abysmal at 45.5, 107th among corners.
Taking over for Haley is Corey Ballentine, a 2019 sixth-round pick out of Washburn. Ballentine has more raw coverage ability than Haley, Ballentine has only played 10 snaps on defense all season prior to last week and will suffer growing pains against a technician like Crowder.
Lost in the Jets' disaster season is that Crowder has done work, turning in three games with at least six catches and 80 yards among the five he’s played with Sam Darnold, including a 14-catch game against the Bills in Week 1.
Ballentine’s PFF coverage grade thus far has dipped below freezing at an ice cold 28.8, and he’ll be vulnerable not only in man coverage, but when the Giants run their zone and zone mach concepts.
The one thing Haley had going for him was over 800 snaps of experience, and adding a new piece to the mix exacerbates potential miscommunication issues that have plagued first-round pick DeAndre Baker, who recently admitted that he has no idea what he is doing. — Chris Raybon
Darren Rovell loves the Giants to cover against the Jets this week. PointsBet is giving everyone in New Jersey boosted odds to bet the other side — Jets +2.5 (+110). New customers get an exclusive promotion: Deposit $50, bet with $150. No strings attached. No rollover required.
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Giants -1.5
- Projected Total: 43
After an embarrassing defeat to the Dolphins, the market has completely given up on the Jets. They’ve now fallen into the Bengals/Redskins bucket of the my power ratings, which is only one step above the Dolphins.
One unique aspect of this matchup is that despite the Giants being the “away” team, they also call MetLife home. In fact, after playing at home in Week 9, the Giants don’t have to travel at all while the Jets are traveling back from Miami. It’s a unique situation for which I all but wiped out the Jets’ home-field advantage.
I’m still showing about a point of value, but the difference from 2.5 to 1.5 is not enough, so I’m passing on this spread. — Sean Koerner
PRO System Match
The Jets are struggling offensively — Sam Darnold and Co. have been held to 18 or fewer points in three consecutive games.
As a result, the Jets are home underdogs to the Giants, and there’s lopsided action on the the G-Men to cover. While this may seem like a good time to fade Gang Green’s inconsistent offense, history suggests otherwise.
Teams that haven’t been able to put up a lot of points recently can be undervalued as teams to regress to the mean throughout the season. This is especially true against opponents that may not know their tendencies or personnel as well as their divisional rivals.
This creates an excellent first-half betting opportunity. Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 162-113-69 (59%) against the spread since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,526 following this strategy. — John Ewing
PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
Expert Pick
Mike Randle: Under 44.5
As of writing, 67% of the bets and 39% of the money is on the over in the battle of New York (see live public betting data here). Both offenses have shown a propensity for turnovers with the Giants (-10) and Jets (-7) in the negative for turnover differential on the season.
More importantly, the respective offensive lines have struggled to protect their quarterback. The Giants have allowed the eighth-most sacks (28), while the Jets have allowed the third-most (32) quarterback sacks on the season.
The Giants’ offense centers around running back Saquon Barkley, but the Jets should be able to limit his production with the second-best run defense DVOA in the league (per Football Outsiders). Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has experienced the normal rookie quarterback struggles, ranking first in intercept-able passes and danger plays as per Player Profiler.
The Jets offense is suffering through injury concerns with Bell and tight end Chris Herndon questionable. And the Giants will be without Shepard and Engram.
I’ll fade the public and take the under in a rivalry game between two poor offenses with injury concerns across the board. I'd bet this under down to 44.
