Giants at Lions Odds & Picks
- Odds: Lions -7
- Over/Under: 49.5
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Now that lead running back Kerryon Johnson is on injured reserve, will the Lions expand their passing game to target a weak Giants secondary?
Our experts expect Matthew Stafford to throw the ball a ton this weekend. The question is whether Daniel Jones and the Giants will be able to keep pace with Detroit.
Let's break down the betting odds and our staff's pick.
Giants-Lions Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Giants
The Giants are in good shape after Saquon Barkley (ankle) practiced in full on Thursday. Their biggest absence is Sterling Shepard, who is expected to miss another game with concussion symptoms. The Giants will run out Golden Tate, Darius Slayton and Bennie Fowler at receiver.
The Lions placed Johnson (knee) on IR, leaving Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic to take on the bulk of the workload. Cornerback Darius Slay (hamstring) is the main defensive injury to note. He played just 18 snaps in Week 7 before getting hurt. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Lions Passing Attack vs. Giants Pass Defense
Despite being a run-first offense behind offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, the Lions rank as the NFL's fourth-most efficient pass offense. Stafford has been remarkably efficient with eight touchdown passes and only one interception over his past four games.
The Giants' pass defense has been lifeless on the road, allowing an average of 373 passing yards and eight total passing touchdowns. Their secondary has six interceptions, but four came against the winless Redskins. The Giants also allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.
Detroit's passing game can attack every quadrant of the field. Stafford has targeted Kenny Golladay 15 times on Deep Targets (greater than 20 yards), placing him third among all wide receivers. Marvin Jones is also coming off the overall WR1 performance with four touchdowns in Week 7.
With Johnson now on IR, look for Bevell to call for more passes than usual. Over the past three games, Detroit ranks 10th with a 61.5% pass percentage. The Giants will need to get pressure on Stafford to help bolster their weak secondary.
At the beginning of the season, the Lions projected as one of the run-heaviest teams in the NFL. But the biggest mismatch will likely be against their secondary. — Mike Randle
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Lions -8
- Projected Total: 48
The Lions are popping in my Pass/Run Funnel Model with a rating of 1.08, which makes sense as their offensive strength is their passing attack (ranked fourth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA) and they’re going up against a Giants defense with pass defense as its main weakness (27th in DVOA).
The Lions losing Johnson to IR could affect them in matchups in which they need to be more balanced, but for Week 8, it could force them to just lean on their passing attack even more.
The Giants have seen 72% of the money, so it’s worth seeing if this number can get off the key number of 7 and down to 6.5 or better before pulling the trigger. The Lions’ 1.08 PRFM rating is also showing a 70.3% in-sample win rate — any matchup that’s been over a 1 in this model is 15-4 on the season. — Sean Koerner
PRO System Match
The Lions have been one of the most profitable teams this season, covering the spread in four of their six games. The Giants, on the other hand, have struggled to cash tickets only covering in two games.
A majority of spread tickets are on the Lions to cover as touchdown favorites as of writing (see live public betting data here), even though Detroit has lost three consecutive games. But bettors are only concerned about winning tickets and the Lions have shown an ability to cash for bettors.
But history suggests gamblers shouldn’t expect each team to continue their covering ways. ATS records tend to regress to the mean over the course of a season as bookmakers adjust to team performance and public perception. As a result, it’s been profitable to bet teams with bad ATS records against opponents with winning ATS records.
Following this simple Pro System, bettors have gone 167-104-9 (61.6%) ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,381 following this strategy.
Bettors are counting the Giants out against the Lions, but history suggests Danny Dimes can cover.— John Ewing
PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
Expert Pick
Stuckey: Over 49.5
This is my favorite over of the week.
With Johnson out, I think the Lions will go to an even heavier pass-based offense, especially against a Giants secondary that's been abused all season. New York is allowing 8.3 yards per pass, which ranks 29th in the NFL, and 27th in pass defense DVOA (compared to middle of the pack against the run). And it’s not like the Lions were running it well even with Johnson, averaging only 3.8 yards per carry as a team.
The Lions have the weapons on the outside to exploit a vulnerable trio of corners who have been as bad as any in the league. Out of 80 cornerbacks with at least 250 coverage snaps, here are the Pro Football Focus coverage grades for the three Giants corners:
- DeAndre Baker: 78th
- Grant Haley: 74th
- Janoris Jenkins: 48th
The Giants' safeties have also struggled in coverage. This matchup should be a buffet for Stafford and Co. as they even have a solid interior OL to handle a stout New York pass rush.
And on the other side of the ball, the Giants are as healthy as they’ve been on offense all season.
I had a lot of hope for this Lions defense — and it's had its moments — but injuries and a recent trade of safety Quandre Diggs have decimated its depth. The strength of the Lions defense was its interior defensive line (which is now banged up) and its coverage abilities in the secondary. But with Diggs now in Seattle and Slay likely out, this defense is just not as scary.
They're also weak against the run (4.9 yards per carry allowed; 28th in NFL) as a unit and struggle to get pressure (27th in adjusted sack rate). Barkley should have a big day and Jones should have time to exploit a lagging Detroit secondary.
This has all of the makings of a shootout.[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
