NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool. Last season unders were profitable even with grades below 10, with all hitting at a 59.0% rate. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Let’s take a look at three props worth considering for the Thursday Night Football contest between the New York Giants and New England Patriots.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bets
Patriots RB James White
THE PICK: Under 18.5 rushing yards (-130)
White is technically a running back, but he does most of his damage in the passing game. He's garnered only 14 total carries through his first four games this season, but he's seen 30 targets.
Overall, he’s carried the ball on only 11.2% of running plays for the Pats this season, which ranks just third on the team. He’s failed to hit the over on his current prop in two of four games this season, and he’s averaging just 15.8 rushing yards per game.
The biggest concern on this game is the point spread. The Pats are currently listed as 17-point favorites, so the game script could dictate a run-heavy game plan if they establish a big lead. Still, it's not like the Patriots aren't used to being huge favorites: They’ve been double-digit favorites in three of their past four games.
I wouldn’t expect White to get more than five or six carries in this contest, and he has the potential to get as few as one or two. I like the under up to -140.
Giants QB Daniel Jones
THE PICK: Under one passing touchdown (-143)
I'm not sure if people are fully aware of how good this Patriots' defense is yet. They're easily the best defense in the league, and we could be talking about them as an all-time great unit by the end of the season.
The Pats are currently allowing an average of less than seven points per game, which is obviously super impressive, but it still undersells just how good this defense is. They've surrendered only four touchdowns, two of which weren't even allowed by the defense! If not for a muffed punt and a pick six by backup QB Nate Sudfeld, their points per game allowed stats would be borderline impossible in the modern NFL.
The Pats' D has yet to allowed a passing touchdown to any quarterback, so I find it hard to believe that Jones is going to throw more than one. His receiving corps is absolutely devastated by injuries right now — Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram have all been ruled out due to injuries — so Jones has very little to work with against the best secondary in the league.
I love this prop. There’s a strong chance that Jones throws no touchdowns in this contest, and we push if he throws one. I’d play the under up to -175.
Giants WR Cody Latimer
THE PICK: Under 31.5 receiving yards (-130)
Latimer is expected to play a larger role than usual given the Giants’ current injury situation. That said, I still think this line is too high.
Latimer has fallen behind rookie receiver Darius Slayton in the pecking order, playing fewer snaps and seeing fewer targets than him in each of the past three weeks. Golden Tate also returned from suspension in his last contest, and he should operate as the team’s No. 1 WR with Sterling Shepard out of the lineup.
Even if Latimer does see more targets than expected, there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to take advantage of them. He plays the majority of his snaps on the left side of the formation, which sets up a matchup vs. Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore hasn’t been as effective as he was last season — Pro Football Focus has him graded as the worst starting corner on the Pats by a pretty significant margin — but this is still a huge mismatch.
Latimer is not a particularly talented receiver, so I have no problem betting against him vs. the best secondary in the league. I like the under up to -145.
