Giants vs. Rams Odds
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The Los Angeles Rams return home after back-to-back East Coast games to face the 0-3 New York Giants.
The Rams have had a strong start to the 2020 season, despite their 28-3 comeback last Sunday being ruined by Bills quarterback Josh Allen in the final minute. Meanwhile, the Giants are desperate for any sort of hope. With Saquon Barkley out for the season due to a torn ACL, they didn’t get in the end zone against the injury-riddled San Francisco 49ers.
Now in L,A., the Giants are catching 13.5 points against the Rams' fearsome Aaron Donald-led defense. In what expects to be a blowout, the backdoor always stays open with a two-score spread. With that in mind, let’s figure out how to bet this NFC matchup.
New York Giants
The Giants are lacking much of an offensive identity right now. With a nonexistent offensive line, defenses have feasted on New York in the backfield.
Daniel Jones has been under constant duress and the Giants are averaging not even two yards per carry. Without Barkley, New York loses its most dynamic play-maker and is not able to give Jones enough time to look downfield to find receivers.
Now Big Blue travels across the country to face a star-studded Rams defense that is sure to dial up the pressure on Jones and the New York backfield.
For the Giants to have a chance in this one, the defense is going to have to hold the line.
The Rams offense has been able to find success in the passing game this season and it will be imperative for the Giants pass defense to show up on Sunday. Jared Goff is averaging a league-high of more than nine net yards per attempt and the team is averaging more than six yards per play. However, the Giants are banged up in the secondary. Jabrill Peppers will be out on Sunday, but New York needs to continue its solid play in the passing game despite the injuries.
Most importantly, the Giants need to find a way to stay on the field on offense.
The team has put a huge burden on its defense by not being able to stay on the field. The defense has held its end of the bargain, giving the Giants an average starting at their own 30, yet the average Giants offensive drive lasts less than three minutes. On top of that, the offense has not been able to cash in on its good field position, scoring the third least amount of points per drive.
Los Angeles Rams
Despite the deflating loss last Sunday, the Rams have asserted themselves once again as a contender in the NFC West.
L.A. has been able to find consistent running back production this season with a mix of different backs, but lately it has been Darrell Henderson. The Memphis product is averaging more than six yards per carry on a healthy 32 rush attempts in the last two games.
Goff and his stable of receivers are also meshing well. Goff has been spreading the ball around and has been able to pick defenses apart this season. He's completing 70% of his passes, which is a testament to his precision early on with him leading the league in net yards per attempt.
With Donald leading the front seven, the Rams blitz on only 19% of their defensive plays because, simply, they do not need to send extra pressure with Donald barreling through. With no need to bring extra men into the box, the Rams can drop back in coverage and put more defenders in Jones' line of vision downfield.
Against a poor offensive line, the Rams pass rush will still be able to get to Jones and could lead to turnovers, as they have turned their opponent over on 17% of drives this season. Up against the most turnover-prone offense, the Rams may have a field day and line up in plus territory often.
Giants-Rams Pick
The Giants are coming off what seems like rock bottom in Week 3, losing to a backup-quarterback-led San Francisco team. This is going to be a gut check for Jones and first-year coach Joe Judge to see if the Giants can put up any fight after rolling over last week.
With Donald likely going to be all over Jones, I expect to see Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett continue to try and use his quarterback in the running game like last week to get him out of a crowded pocket.
I’m going to play Jones’ over on rushing yards after watching the Giants start to scheme him that way as they try to free him up.
As for a game side, this feels like a must-win for the Judge era to ever show some life. While I’m not calling a Giants outright win or for them to cover, I expect them to put up a better effort than the one they showed against the 49ers in Week 3.
With L.A. coming home off the East Coast trip, the Rams may take their foot off the gas as they recover, and for that reason I’m going to play the over 48 in hopes that the Giants can string together a few scoring drives against a defense that is allowing nearly 24 points per game despite some other positive metrics.
Pick: Over 48 (up to 49)
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