Giants vs. Washington Odds
| Giants Odds | +3 |
| Football Team Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 40.5 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NFL Network |
The NFL graced us with an instant classic between the Bucs and Cowboys for the opening Thursday Night Football game of 2021. However, Week 2 provides a much more typical TNF matchup between the Giants and the Football Team, which (unsurprisingly) sports the lowest over/under of the week.
New York's O-Line Primed For Bad Night
The Giants limped into Week 1 with nearly every skill player playing through injury, including Saquon Barkley, who was limited to a 48% snap share in the season opener and could see a similar role on Thursday. The short week doesn't give them much time to recover, either, putting the Giants at a disadvantage.
The real concern for the Giants is their offensive line.
I consider their O-line to be one of the worst in the league … and they're going up against arguably the NFL's top defensive line on Thursday night. It's a recipe for disaster, especially considering Daniel Jones continued his struggles holding onto the football with yet another fumble in Week 1 after leading the league in fumbles each of the past two seasons.
Justin Herbert was excellent in Week 1, but the Chargers were still only able to put up 20 points against the Football Team. Can we expect a Jones-led offense to top that? I'm going to go out on a limb here and say "no."
Chase Young, Montez Sweat and Co. should wreak havoc on New York.
Impact of Washington's QB Change
The main factor we need to consider when handicapping this game is the quarterback change from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Taylor Heinicke.
We know what Fitzpatrick is at this point: A league-average quarterback who has flashes of brilliance (aka Fitzmagic) along with moments of ineptitude (aka Fitztragic). We only have a small sample to go off for Heinicke, but he's proven to be a competent backup when called on to start — if you remember, he nearly led the Football Team to an upset win over the eventual Super Bowl champion Bucs in the Wild Card Round of the 2020 playoffs.
Therefore, I'm only docking the Football Team's team rating by two points with the QB change for this matchup. They won't need to put up 30+ points to beat the Giants. All they need from Heinicke is to play a clean, turnover-free game, which should be enough. He has talented pass catchers in Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas and Antonio Gibson as well as J.D. McKissic at his disposal.
Giants vs. WFT Pick
I was projecting the Football Team as 6.5-point favorites before Fitzpatrick landed on the IR. However, since I'm only docking them two points for the QB change, I'm projecting them as 4.5-point favorites here.
I believe the market is overreacting to the QB change — the Football Team won't need Heinicke to do much to win this particular matchup, whereas against the Bills next week, this QB change could be worth closer to 3-3.5 points because Washington would want Fitzpatrick's upside against a high-scoring team like Buffalo.
Since this should be a low scoring game, it's worth buying the half-point if your book is offering -3.5, though I would bet this to -4.
Pick: WFT -3 at PointsBet | Bet to -4
