The Green Bay Packers (9-3) and Detroit Lions (11-1) begin NFL Week 14 tonight on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET from Ford Field in Detroit exclusively on Prime Video.
We have Packers vs. Lions predictions against the spread, on the over/under and a player prop in the touchdown market on the Detroit side.
Let's get right into our NFL picks for Thursday Night Football.
Packers vs. Lions Odds
- Spread: Lions -3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 52.5 points scored (-110 / -110)
- Moneyline: Lions -174, Packers +146
Consensus lines via Action Network's NFL odds page.
Packers vs. Lions Predictions
- Against the Spread: Lions -3 (-115)
- Over/Under Prediction: Over 51.5 (-110)
- Player Prop: Jameson Williams Anytime Touchdown (+240)
Packers vs. Lions Prediction Against the Spread
By Billy Ward
This line has moved to Lions -3.5 at most places. DraftKings, though, is sticking with Lions -3, at least as of Wednesday night.
That seems fairly generous since this game is in Detroit, and the fact that the Lions already beat the Packers this season by double digits earlier this season on the road.
In the meantime, though, the Lions have been hit by the injury bug far more than Green Bay. The injured players on Detroit's defense in particular would create a pretty strong 11.
The Lions have continued trucking along. They've won 10 straight games and are 9-3 against the spread, having won by fewer than three points just once this season.
I'd recommend getting this line at Lions -3 instead of -3.5. I would pay up to -135 to ensure we keep the half point in case this game is a close one.
Pick: Lions -3 (-115; Play to -135)
Packers vs. Lions Over/Under Pick
Had it not been for the incompetence of Matt Eberflus, the last four Detroit home games would have cashed the over.
The Lions had a rare performance under six yards per play on Thanksgiving against the Bears and converted just 36% of their third downs. Bettors were still in position to see 49 or more points if the game went to overtime. I like the chances of a bounce-back performance for Detroit on Thursday night against the Packers defense.
The Lions lead the NFL in points per drive this season, and the Packers defense ranks just 19th in that category when it playing away from Lambeau field. The conditions in Green Bay were not ideal back in Week 9 when these two teams met at Lambeau Field. The Packers defense pressured the quarterback just six times with Goff completing 81% of his throws.
If the Packers defense cannot generate pressure, it struggles to defend the pass. That will be no easy task slowing down the top team in the NFL in terms of success rate through the air this season.
Jordan Love was not healthy back in Week 9, so we can't take much away from the performance of the Packers offense in the first meeting. Head coach Matt LaFleur has implemented a much more balanced approach in recent games, but that's easy to do when you're playing the majority of the game with a lead.
Love averaged 34 pass attempts per game in his two meetings with the Lions last season, and both games saw more than 50 total points scored.
The combination of this game being played in a dome, both teams ranking in the top 10 in pass block win rate on offense and facing defenses in the bottom half of the league in pass rush win rate all lead me to believe a high-scoring affair is in order. I'd play this total up to 52.
Pick: Over 51.5 (-110; Play to 52)
Jameson Williams Player Prop
Jameson Williams is always a volatile player, but he's been getting good volume recently with nine and 11 targets in the last two games, and he's scored a touchdown in three of his last five games.
This game's total (51.5) indicates that there will be plenty of points. The three-point spread also means the Lions likely won't be blowing out the Packers. That means Detroit will not be abandoning the pass game here in what might be the best Thursday Night Football matchup of the season.
Williams isn't a huge red-zone target, but he did get two looks inside the 20-yard line last week. He's a massive threat to score from anywhere on the field.
I have the true odds on this sitting around +200, making this a good bet at +240.
Pick: Jameson Williams Anytime Touchdown (+240)
