Let's get into my Packers vs. Lions predictions for Thursday Night Football.
The Green Bay Packers (9-3) and Detroit Lions (11-1) will face off to begin Week 14 at 8:15 p.m. ET tonight from Ford Field in Detroit. The game will be broadcast exclusively on Prime Video.
The Lions are 3-point favorites (-118) over the Packers with the game total set at 52.5 points scored at DraftKings, which has the Detroit moneyline set at -170, while Green Bay is +142 to win outright.
The Packers beat the Dolphins 30-17 last week on Thanksgiving for their third straight win. Jordan Love had 274 passing yards and threw 2 touchdowns, while Josh Jacobs found the end zone again on the ground. The Lions beat the Bears 23-20 last Thursday and have now won 9 straight. Detroit ran for 194 yards and Jared Goff threw 2 touchdown passes to tight end Sam LaPorta.
Packers vs. Lions Prediction, Odds
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 52.5 -112o / -108u | +142 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 52.5 -112o / -108u | -170 |
- Packers vs. Lions spread: Lions -3 (-118)
- Packers vs. Lions over/under: 52.5 points scored
- Packers vs. Lions moneyline: Lions -170, Packers +142
- Packers vs. Lions picks: Under 52.5
For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread, Moneyline
I have this game projected at Lions -4. There's not enough in the matchup or the market for me to bet on this spread.
Likewise, I'm not betting on the either team's moneyline, although my pick'em ratings indicate there's a 61% chance the Lions win tonight.
Over/Under
It’s no surprise that a matchup between two of the league's highest-scoring offenses (the Lions are first and the Packers eighth) would result in a total north of 50, making it the highest of Week 14.
However, these division rivals know how to game plan against each other to slow things down, something we saw back in Week 9 when they combined for just 38 points. The play here is on the under, and I’ll explain why both offenses could stall just enough to keep this game below the total.
My Pick: Under 52.5
Packers vs. Lions NFL Thursday Night Football Preview
The Lions use man coverage at a league-high 43% of the time, a style that has exposed Jordan Love this season. Among 41 qualified quarterbacks, Love ranks 38th in QB rating and 39th in success rate against man coverage.
This defensive approach has been further amplified by Detroit's aggressive blitz rate. The Lions blitz at the fifth-highest rate in the league and at the second-highest rate since Aidan Hutchinson went down in Week 6. Love has struggled mightily against the blitz, leading the league in EPA/dropback against four or fewer rushers but dropping to 33rd out of 34 quarterbacks when blitzed, a near "first to worst" drop-off.
The Lions pass rush, despite missing Hutchinson, has received a significant boost from the addition of Za'Darius Smith. Since joining in Week 11, Smith has 17 pressures, which are the most in the NFL, revitalizing the Lions pass rush and helping them maintain the league's top spot in DVOA against the pass. Adding CB Carlton Davis in back into the mix this week further strengthens their secondary.
Detroit’s defense doesn’t just thrive against the pass. It's a nightmare against the run, ranking fourth in DVOA against the run. While the Lions recently lost LBs Alex Anzalone and Malcolm Rodriguez to injured reserve, Jack Campbell has stepped up, especially against the run.
The Packers have leaned more on the run game recently and could try to feature Josh Jacobs to help control the clock and keep Detroit’s potent offense off the field. However, efficiency will be hard to come by against this stout Lions front. A run-heavy approach would also play into the under by shortening the game and limiting overall play volume, which I think could be a key factor for this total to stay below 51.5.
The Lions boast the highest-scoring offense in the league, driven by an elite offensive line and the dynamic backfield duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
However, the Packers have been solid against the run, ranking 12th in DVOA. They’ve made noticeable adjustments recently by utilizing more stacked boxes, which has helped, as they held Christian McCaffrey to 11/31/0 and De’Von Achane to 7/14/0 rushing lines in their past two games.
The Packers run defense could get an added boost if LT Taylor Decker is unable to suit up. Decker has yet to practice this week, and his absence would not only make it easier for Green Bay to slow Detroit’s potent rushing attack but also increase the likelihood of Jared Goff facing pressure. The Packers frequently move Rashan Gary around to exploit mismatches, and they’d likely align him against backup Dan Skipper if he starts in Decker’s place.
My Packers vs. Lions Prediction
While the Lions offense is fully capable of putting up points, this game script leans toward their defense stepping up to slow the Packers down. With Green Bay potentially containing Detroit’s run game (just enough) and Love potentially struggling against an aggressive Lions defense, this matchup has the makings of a lower-scoring affair (more than the market realizes) that ultimately falls short of the 51.5-point total.
As of 4 p.m. ET, DraftKings moved the total to 52.5.
Best Bet: Under 52.5 (Bet to 50.5)
Lions vs. Packers Betting Trends
