Since gambling has existed, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have a Packers vs. Eagles parlay for the NFL's first ever game in Brazil.
Sure, they aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun though, and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he just tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 odds or better to pay off a whole season. We'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, that means we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home.
Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for the rare Friday Night Football in Week 1 between the Packers and Eagles with this parlay built on DraftKings.
- Over 49 (-112)
- Dallas Goedert Under 4.5 Receptions (-145)
- Saquon Barkley Over 83.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards (-115)
- Christian Watson 70+ Receiving Yards (+450)
Packers vs. Eagles Parlay: 4-Leg Same-Game Parlay
Over 49 (-112)
It's hard to predict the impact the unique circumstances of this game will have on scoring. On the one hand, "Primetime Unders!" on the other, it's not exactly a short week. Plus, traveling to a new venue complicates matters. Drawing conclusions from games in Europe (where time zones and jet lag are a factor) doesn't apply to a game in Brazil.
All of which is a long way to say that I'm treating this one as a standard NFL game. I like the over based on how both teams match up here, with each side having fairly glaring defensive weaknesses last season. For the Packers that was their rushing defense, which ranked 26th in DVOA last season, while the Eagles passing defense came in at 28th. Philly drafted two corners at the top of the 2024 draft, but I'm not expecting an immediate impact there.
With Green Bay becoming more of an aggressive passing offense and hopefully getting a healthy Christian Watson (more on him later) this season, the Packers should move the ball well. Ditto for the Eagles, who have the second-best offensive line in the NFL, according to Brandon Anderson, and made a splash with the offseason signing of Saquon Barkley.
Dallas Goedert Under 4.5 Receptions (-145)
I like to include an anti-correlated piece when I'm taking a total with these SGPs since they boost the odds considerably. One offensive player I'm mostly out on is Goedert, who has plenty of target competition with the Eagles.
Goedert averaged just over four receptions per game last season but had just a 15% target share. Barkley has historically seen a lot of usage in the passing game, plus the Eagles added Jahan Dotson as their third wide receiver late in training camp. While Dotson shouldn't draw too many looks, he's still an upgrade at the position compared to last season's team. Plus, we're betting on the Eagles skewing a bit more run-heavy in this one anyway.
This is also one of the top props in our NFL Prop Tool, with the heavy juice effectively canceled out by pairing it with the over.
Saquon Barkley Over 83.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards (-115)
I'm going with Barkley's combined rushing/receiving prop here since it correlates nicely with our previous assumptions. I'm anticipating that the Eagles will lean on the ground game here — and also for Barkley to snipe some short-area looks from Goedert.
Given his explosiveness and the Eagles' stout O-line, Barkley could pick up a big chunk of yards in either domain. Our projections have him pegged for 69 rushing yards and 18.7 receiving, but there's a fairly wide range of outcomes based on potential big plays. In this market, we're covered for either scenario.
If you want to juice it up even further, adding Barkley's anytime TD prop (-110) makes sense too, but the impact on the final odds isn't enough for my tastes, especially with the "tush push" keeping Eagles backs from finding the end zone.
Christian Watson 70+ Receiving Yards (+450)
The last pick of this parlay takes the odds from +445 up to +2000 and is admittedly a bit of a long shot. Our projections have Watson landing at around half of this number, but median odds don't always tell the full story.
Watson never finished between 40-70 receiving yards last season, with three games of at least 70 and eight where he fell short of 40. He was limited due to injury for many of those games but has apparently resolved the muscle asymmetry issue in his hamstrings that kept him sidelined for most of last season.
Watson is the clear top option in the Packers' aerial attack when fully healthy. Given that we're banking on plenty of passing from Green Bay, it would make sense for Watson to have a big performance. Plus, with an aDOT of over 15 yards last season, he probably only needs four or so catches to clear this mark.
Feel free to leave this one out if you're looking for a more reasonable parlay — personally, I'm hedging my bets with a sprinkle on both versions — but if you want to have some fun, the Watson leg has a huge impact on the odds.
Full Packers vs. Eagles Parlay Odds: +2000 | $10 bet wins $200
As a reminder, with parlay odds being somewhat opaque there's massive variation from book to book. Be sure to shop around to get the best line as this parlay (give or take a yard or two on the receiving props) had odds of just +1592 on FanDuel at the time of writing.
