Our betting analysts have three Packers vs. Eagles picks for NFL Brazil at Arena Corinthians in Sao Paulo, with kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Jordan Love broke out late last season alongside the likes of Jayden Reed, and now Josh Jacobs is leading the backfield for Green Bay. The Eagles ended last season on a downward spiral but enter this one with renewed optimism. Jalen Hurts has a new offense to learn and playmakers like Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith around him.
We have a pair of experts who are on the same side of the spread and two more who are on receiving overs. With two exciting quarterbacks and potentially explosive offenses, this could be an exciting game. Let's get to our expert NFL Brazil Game predictions and best bets.
Packers vs. Eagles Picks
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  | 8:15 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
NFL Brazil Game Odds
- Packers vs. Eagles Spread: Packers +2 | Eagles -2
- Packers vs. Eagles Over/Under: 49.5 total points scored
- Packers vs. Eagles Moneyline: Packers +110 | Eagles -130
Brandon Anderson's NFL Brazil Game Pick Against the Spread
Two of the best teams in the NFC meet in our first ever Brazil Friday night game, and no one would be surprised if this ends up being run back in the playoffs, but I think one team is better right now.
The unit I trust most heading into the new season is the Packers offense. Jordan Love played like a top-five QB over the back half of last season and in the playoffs, and Matt LaFleur's offense is the one unit coming into this game with continuity.
The Eagles defense was bad last season and, frankly, fell off even in its run to the Super Bowl the season before. The older guys are fading or gone, and the younger guys are still finding their way. New defensive coordinatorVic Fangio's task is to remake this defense, but that could take some time and often has in his past stops.
Philadelphia's offense is in transition with the departure of Jason Kelce on the line and what should be a very different look under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Green Bay's defense will hope to have very different results with new coordinator Jeff Hafley. That side of things is unpredictable, but I like Love against this Eagles defense in transition. Philadelphia will be better at the end of the season than it is right now.
Matt LaFleur is 22–10 (69%) against the spread (ATS) as an underdog, and he's 13–2 ATS (87%!) the first three weeks of the season when coaching is at a premium. Jalen Hurts as a favorite away from home is just 6–14–1 ATS (30%).
Obviously, grab Packers +3 if you can find it, but I'm good with Packers +2.5 and I prefer that to the moneyline in case this one's close.
Pick: Packers +2.5 (-110)
John LanFranca's Eagles vs. Packers Pick
The wrong team is favored on Friday in Brazil. While Hurts wasn't fully healthy during the latter half of the 2023 season, installing them as favorites against the Packers takes a lot of projection for a team with many new pieces.
Outside of an off-day against what turned out to be an underrated Buccaneers team, the Packers outplayed every team they lined up against after Thanksgiving. That run included wins at Detroit, at Dallas and against the Chiefs. I felt they truly were the best team in the NFC.
The scary thing for the rest of the conference is this was the youngest offense in the NFL. Another year under LaFleur makes them even more dangerous. We could very well look back at this number later in the year and wonder how Green Bay was an underdog against any NFC team at a neutral site.
Speaking of LaFleur, he has been incredible against the spread when his team is an underdog, covering 68.7% of the time over a 32-game sample size. I love the idea of Love picking up where he left off, whereas Hurts and the Eagles offense not only has to replace a Hall of Fame center, but this will be their first game with Moore as offensive coordinator.
The market simply has not adjusted enough to reflect the Packers position in the pecking order in the NFC. Love was the league's highest-rated passer from Week 10 until the end of the season last year. After Green Bay wins this game, you won't be able to get points with their side again until at least Week 12, so enjoy it while you can and take advantage by taking the 2.5.
Pick: Packers +2.5 (-110)
Derek Farnsworth's DeVonta Smith Prop
Smith got off to a slow start last year but had at least five receptions in six of his last eight games. During that stretch, his target share rivaled that of A.J. Brown's.
That's encouraging in itself, but I'm even more intrigued now that Moore is the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia. The Chargers were first in the NFL in combined play volume last year, so we could see a quicker pace from the Eagles in 2024. More importantly, many expect Moore to use Smith in the CeeDee Lamb and Keenan Allen role, which has been so productive in his offenses.
The total for this game is 49.5, which means both teams should be able to move the ball. I like the receiving yardage prop for Smith (60.5 yards), as well, but the receptions total (4.5) is the one that really stood out to me.
Pick: DeVonta Smith Over 4.5 Receptions (-140)
Charlie DiSturco's Christian Watson Prop
The early part of the NFL season presents plenty of buy-low opportunities based on the unknown. The Green Bay wide receiver room is packed, but there’s one player in particular with limitless potential that I personally believe is priced too low.
Hello, Christian Watson! You don’t get to say this often, but Love’s favorite target is fully healthy entering the season. That’s when I want to capitalize.
I get the concerns about how he can never stay healthy and he’s a deep-ball threat through and through. But in the nine weeks that Watson played last season, he commanded 53 targets and was an instant go-to option in the red zone. It’s clear that when he’s on the field and healthy, the third-year man is Love’s first read.
It’s a great matchup for Watson against an Eagles defense that ranked 29th in Pass DVOA last season. Even with their likely improvement, this number remains far too low for Watson.
Watson is a big-play threat that can hit this number in one go. With an aDOT (average depth of target) of 16.7 yards, the 25-year-old remains undervalued in a crowded receiving room.
The talent is undeniable for Watson. If he stays healthy, we could look back on this line and think to ourselves "How was it so low?"
Watson is a boom-or-bust kind of player, so I’ll likely be laddering his props vs. Philly.
Pick: Christian Watson Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
