The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles will play the first ever NFL Brazil Game on Friday night, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Arena Corinthians in Sao Paulo.
The Eagles are consensus 2-point favorites (-2) over the Packers for Friday Night Football in Week 1, although if you're backing the Packers, you can find Green Bay +2.5 in the market. Philadelphia is a -130 favorite to beat Green Bay in Friday night's 2024 NFL Kickoff Game in Brazil, with the Packers +110 on the moneyline. The over/under is now 49.5.
Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and the Eagles, who finished 11-6 in 2023, have added Saquon Barkley to their potentially loaded offense. Of course, pop culture icon and Philly offensive lineman Jason Kelce is gone, having retired. The Packers (9-8 last season) and Jordan Love have Josh Jacobs in the backfield now, with the receiving corps led by Jayden Reed and Christian Watson.
You know the teams. You know the players. You know the odds, spread and lines. Let's get to my NFL Brazil Game predictions for Packers vs. Eagles.
NFL Expert Chris Raybon's NFL Brazil Game Predictions
SPREAD
The Packers were the better team by season's end last season and this game is being played on a neutral field, so I'm betting the Packers on the Eagles vs. Packers spread by buying up to +3, with the best line at bet365.
MONEYLINE
I could make a case for the Packers on the moneyline on a neutral field, but I prefer taking the points, especially since the Packers have question marks at kicker, with unproven rookie Brayden Narveson opening the season in that role.
TOTAL
I'm staying away from the total with the Eagles offense, Eagles defense and Packers defense each having undergone transformations this offseason.
Eagles vs. Packers Pick: Packers +3 (-128 at bet365)
NFL Brazil Game Odds, Spread, Moneyline Total
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 49.5 -108o / -112u | +105 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 49.5 -108o / -112u | -125 |
- Packers vs. Eagles Point Spread: Eagles -2 | Packers +2
- Packers vs. Eagles Over/Under: 49.5
- Packers vs. Eagles Moneyline: Packers +125 | Eagles -105
How to Watch Packers vs. Eagles
| Location: | Neo Quimica Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil |
| Date: | Friday, Sept. 6 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Peacock |
Eagles vs. Packers is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET from Sao Paolo, Brazil, on Friday. The game will be live on NBC and streaming on Peacock and other streaming platforms, such as YouTube TV.
NFL Brazil Game Weather
Eagles vs. Packers Betting Trends
- 66% of bets and 44% of the money are on the Packers to cover the spread.
- 77% of bets and 73% of the money are on the Eagles vs. Packers over.
- 78% of bets and 62% of the money on the moneyline are on Philadelphia.
NFL Brazil Game: Friday Night Football
Jalen Hurts will pilot a new-look offense with Kellen Moore at offensive coordinator, Saquon Barkley at running back and Jahan Dotson at WR3. Even with no Jason Kelce at center, the net effect should be positive — but how soon? Hurts is tasked with learning an offense he admits is "95% new," and he'll have a lot more pre-snap responsibilities than before.
Hurts must improve against the blitz. Last season, Hurts was blitzed on 38.7% of dropbacks, according to PFF. That was the second-most among 43 qualified quarterbacks and he produced an 80.5 passer rating against the blitz, which ranked 29th. Last season, the Packers blitzed at the 10th-highest rate (29.3%, per Pro Football Reference), but ranked just 26th in DVOA versus the pass.
However, the firing of former defensive coordinator Joe Barry is an addition by subtraction, and there's a good chance the Packers pass defense is more aggressive and much improved under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. Barry inherited a defense that ranked 10th in DVOA (all DVOA data via FTN) the year before his arrival in 2021, and after a 12th-place finish his first year, the Packers slipped to 25th or worse each of the past two seasons, despite personnel that was arguably much more representative of a top 10-12 unit.
Hafley is an unknown after not having coached in the NFL since 2018 and spent the past four years in the college ranks, but that just makes him tougher to prepare for in Week 1. Hafley's defense relies on a lot of single-high safety looks, which Hurts has been known to struggle against in the past.
Hafley's scheme fits the Packers' defensive personnel much better, so their run defense — which also ranked 26th in DVOA — should improve. The Packers have top-flight cornerback Jaire Alexander healthy and acquired a top-five graded safety in Xavier McKinney, so I still expect the Eagles to lean more on the run with Barkley and Hurts.
As far as learning a new offense, Jordan Love has no such problems. After completing 57.7% of his passes at 6.4 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions en route to a 2-5 straight-up record in his first seven games, Love exploded for a 68.8% completion rate, 7.8 YPA and a 26-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio the rest of the way (including postseason), winning 8-of-12 starts in the process and coming within four points of knocking off the eventual NFC champion 49ers in the Divisional Round.
Love will face what the Eagles hope will be an improved defense under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Barry's defenses may have underperformed expectations, but even they couldn't rival the disaster class that was the Eagles defense under Sean Desai and Matt Patricia last season. With former defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon taking the head job in Arizona after helping lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl in 2022 , Desai and Patricia oversaw the Eagles defense dropping from third to 29th in DVOA. The pass defense was the main culprit, ranking 29th in DVOA and allowing the second-most yards (3,125) and touchdowns (27) to wide receivers.
Fangio's defense is known to have a steep learning curve, however, and with starting cornerback Isaiah Rodgers (hand) ruled out, the Eagles will have to rely inexperienced players at corner opposite Darius Slay, including a pair of rookies (Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean) and a second-year, Day 3 pick (Kelee Ringo). The Packers go four-deep with talented wide receivers (Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks), so Love should be able to largely pick up where he left off last season.
How to Make NFL Picks & Packers vs. Eagles Prediction
While Love and the Packers heated up over the second half of last season, the Eagles went cold after a 10-1 start, finishing the regular season 1-5 before getting upset in the Wild Card Round by the Buccaneers. In other words, the Packers were clearly the better team by season's end, and while both teams should be improved, the Packers feature the one unit that hasn't undergone massive change (their offense).
The Eagles have the slightly superior roster, but with the Packers ending last season as the better team and this game being played on a neutral field, this game is close to a pick'em.
According to our Action Labs data, Hurts is just 6-12-1 (33%) against the spread as a favorite outside of Philadelphia.
Meanwhile, the Packers are a nice 69% ATS (22-10) as an underdog under head coach Matt LaFleur.
The Packers have been bet down from +3 to +2, with some +2.5s still floating around in the market. Although I show value on the Packers at +2 or better, I think it's worth buying onto the key number of +3 as long as you can get it at a reasonable price (-130 or better). If that's not an option, I also like teasing the Packers up, along with the Bengals down at -8.5 or better.
Pick: Packers +3 (-128)
