The Green Bay Packers (9-4) and Seattle Seahawks (8-5) will face off in NFL Week 15. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. EST from Lumen Field in Seattle. The game will be broadcast live on NBC and can be streamed on Peacock.
The Packers are favored by 2.5 points, with the game total set at 46 points scored. The Packers are -140 favorites to win outright, while the Seahawks are +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Seahawks vs Packers predictions and NFL picks.
Packers vs. Seahawks Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -105 | 46 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -115 | 46 -110o / -110u | +120 |
- Packers vs. Seahawks spread: Packers -2.5 (-115)
- Packers vs. Seahawks over/under: 46 points scored
- Packers vs. Seahawks moneyline: Packers -140, Seahawks +120
- Packers vs. Seahawks best bet: Seahawks +2.5
MyPackers vs. Seahawks best bet is on the Seahawks to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
I like the Seahawks +2. Both teams are among the class of the NFC, but the Seahawks' full-season numbers undersell them a bit more.
Over/Under
I'll pass on the Sunday Night Football total.
My Pick: Seahawks +2.5 (to +2)
Packers vs. Seahawks Sunday Night Football Preview
From a strength of schedule perspective, the Packers' four losses are about as "good" as you can have: at Eagles by five, vs. Vikings by two, vs. Lions by 10, at Lions by three.
Those teams are a combined 34-5 on the season, including 30-2 in games not against each other.
The Packers also went 2-0 with backup quarterback Malik Willis starting in place of the injured Jordan Love, winning by a combined score of 46-24.
One of Green Bay's biggest issues earlier in the year was turnovers, with Jordan Love throwing at least one interception in each of his first eight starts (11 total), but the Packers weathered that storm by creating even more turnovers and sit sixth in the NFL with a +89 takeaway margin.
Love hasn't thrown an interception over his last three starts and has only one in his last four, with an assist to the play-calling that has dialed back his pass attempts from 34.3 over the first seven games to 22.0 over the last four.
The Packers have instead made running back Josh Jacobs the centerpiece of the offense that ranks third in overall DVOA (fourth rushing, third passing), with Jacobs rushing for 1,053 yards and 11 TDs on 253 carries and sitting fourth in rushing yards per game (81.0).
At one point, this would have looked like a clear edge for the Packers, but thanks to a combination of personnel adjustments, scheme adjustments, and familiarity with head coach Mike Macdonald's scheme, the Seahawks are trending way up against the run since midseason — and defensively, period.
Since Week 9, the Seahawks rank fourth in EPA per rush (-0.223) after ranking 31st (0.046) in Weeks 1-8, according to rbsdm.com.
Per rbsdm.com, Seattle ranks third in early-down rushing success rate (31.6%) since Week 9 after ranking dead last (43.9%) prior.
The big keys were the addition of linebacker Ernest Jones in a trade with the Titans in Week 8 and the subsequent insertion of rookie fourth-round Tyrice Knight into the starting lineup after the Week 9 bye. Jones is averaging 10.5 tackles per game since joining the team, and Knight has earned a PFF grade of 70.2, 26th of 84 qualified linebackers.
They have been able to stop the run with their front seven, allowing them to better utilize their pair of excellent safeties in Julian Love (80.4 PFF grade, sixth of 92 qualifiers) and Coby Bryant (76.3, 14th of 92) by sitting back in coverage on the back end.
With Love and Bryant plus a pair of terrific cornerbacks, Devon Witherspoon (72.9, 19th of 118) and Riq Woolen (69.9, 34th of 118), they've gone from 17th EPA per dropback (0.052) in Weeks 1-8 to fifth since Week 9 (-0.048).
Nine of Seattle's 11 interceptions have come since Week 7, with at least one in each game.
Offensively, the Seahawks have started to incorporate a more diverse rushing attack featuring a higher rate of gap scheme runs since Weeks 13 that averaged 6.4 yards per carry on 25 attempts, better suiting an improved right side of the offensive line with now-healthy right tackle Abraham Lucas and rookie right guard Sataoa Laumea, which should benefit them against a Packers run defense that has been weaker against gap (4.3 YPC -0.01 EPA/rush, 39.8%) than zone (4.1 YPC, -0.02, 37.2%).
Zach Charbonnet posted a monster 22-134-2 rushing line while adding 7-59-0 through the air last week in place of the injured Kenneth Walker (calf) and will get the start again on Sunday night.
Charbonnet ranks fifth of 55 qualified running backs with 3.61 yards before contact, averaging nearly as many yards after contact as Kenneth Walker averages total (3.74).
The Seahawks have also featured Jaxon Smith-Njigba more in the passing game over the past six games, with the 2023 first-round pick going off for 6.3 receptions and 98.7 yards per game with four TDs over that span.
The Packers have gotten excellent safety play from Xavier McKinney and his league-high seven interceptions, but the secondary is a concern with star cornerback Jaire Alexander (knee) and safety Javon Bullard (ankle) already ruled out and cornerback Corey Ballentine (knee) listed as questionable.
The Seahawks' five losses — at the Lions by 13, home to the Giants by nine, home to the 49ers by 12, home to the Bills by 21 and home to the Rams by six — don't look as "impressive" as Green Bay's four, but two of those were about as fluky as they come, with Giants blocking a game-winning field goal attempt and returning it for a touchdown, and the Rams scoring more TDs from inside their 5-yard line than the Seahawks did.
So, while both teams are playing good football, the Seahawks are a bit underrated because their full-season metrics are a bit less representative of who is on the field and how they're playing right now.
The Packers offense is humming with three straight 30-point games and 29.8 in four games since the bye, but despite their only loss over that stretch coming by 3 points to the Lions, they were out-gained 391-298 in that game. They also were lucky to escape with a 20-19 win against the Bears in Week 9 despite getting outgained 391-366. And zooming out their +9 turnover margin despite Love's 3.4% turnover-worthy throw rate is much luckier than Seattle's -4 despite Smith's 2.1% rate on higher volume (his 466 attempts are tied for second-most).
These teams are a lot closer than the market the raw numbers suggest, making this more of a coin-flip game.
According to our Action Labs data, teams on a three-game streak of scoring 30-plus points like the Packers have gone just 36-57-1 (38.7%) ATS since 2003, including 17-32-3 (34.7%) ATS on the road.
My Pick: Seahawks +2.5
Seahawks vs Packers Betting Trends
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