NFL Hall of Fame Game Odds
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 33.5 -110 / -110 | -130 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 33.5 -110 / -110 | +110 |
When it comes to preseason betting, one of the best ways to get an edge is to find times when there is a significant mismatch between QBs. Of course, there are going to be other factors involved, such as if the entire first- or second-team offense will be on the field with that QB or many other factors, but I have found if you at least key in on the most important position, you can gain an edge. That’s especially the case when you have a pretty good idea as to when specific QBs will see his playing time.
That’s why I have created these QB tables for every upcoming pre-season game. Here is what they look like for the Hall of Fame Game:
The tables list each quarterback currently on the roster, their value against the spread and how many projected snaps I’m estimating, along with a rough projection of when they will be in the game. The solid green color is when I think they will likely be in the game, with the shaded areas when I think the potential QB change will happen.
These tables are a visual representation of how I have processed my pregame and in-game decisions in the past in a much clearer form.
Based on these charts, you can see that the Browns' QB situation tonight is pretty straightforward: Kellen Mond is expected to get the start and play most/entire first half, while Dorian Thompson-Robinson will handle the second half.
The Jets' QB rotation is a bit more murky, but we do know that Zach Wilson will get the start and if I had to guess will play 2-3 series or roughly a quarter. It's unknown who will be coming in after Wilson to presumably close the first half, but it sounds like it may be Tim Boyle ahead of Chris Streveler.
Wilson is clearly a QB worth fading in the regular season. The former second-overall pick has struggled in his first two seasons, but he could get back on track by backing up/learning from Aaron Rodgers. It might not pay off as soon as tonight, but it’s worth pointing out he has thrived in limited preseason action with 8.6 yards per attempt (YPA) and 107.7 QB rating in 25 attempts.
The Jets will likely have an edge while he’s under center opposite Mond, who has a career 6.0 YPA and 68.0 QB Rating in 102 preseason attempts.
The Jets will also likely still have an edge once Streveler comes in and finishes out the first half. He has a 7.3 YPA and 111.7 QB Rating on 63 career preseason attempts. He also has a ton of rushing upside, which is even more valuable in the preseason.
Therefore, I’ll be on the Jets 1H moneyline (-118 at DraftKings, -125 at BetMGM or -132 at FanDuel).
Pick: Jets 1H ML (-132) |
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Once we get to the second half, the edge could flip. Boyle will come in to relieve Streveler either to start the half or possibly after a couple second-half drives. Boyle has been awful during the regular and preseason with has a 5.4 YPA and 82.8 QB Rating in 195 career preseason attempts. He will likely be playing with the third- and fourth-string offenses, making things much tougher for a strict pocket passer.
Disclaimer: It's the preseason and things change fast. Reports are now indicating that Boyle may come in before Streveler. I still feel OK about betting the Jets' first-half ML because Wilson is going to start.
On the other side, the Browns will be handing the keys to Thompson-Robinson, a fifth-round rookie out of UCLA. DTR may need some work developing as a passer at the NFL level, but he has a ton of rushing upside, which is something he will likely tap into tonight. I think this is going to be key once facing third or fourth-stringers on defense as most teams simply use a soft zone base in these preseason games, something a rushing QB like DTR can take advantage of if his first couple of reads are covered.
I’m thinking we see the Jets as slight favorites for the second, but I think it should be the Browns who are slight favorites at that point. I may lock that in at halftime or maybe try to time my second-half/in-game bet closer to once it looks like Boyle will be coming into the game to replace Streveler. That’s the moment I think the Browns should be slight favorites the rest of the way.
