Happy 45th Birthday, Tom Brady: 12 Trends, Facts and Notes on His NFL Career

Players are usually in the “prime” of their careers in their late 20s. In the NFL, at most positions it’s earlier than that.

Yet here’s Tom Brady, entering his age-45 season coming off a 5,000-yard, 40-touchdown campaign for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He thought about calling it quits in the offseason but is back for one more season — and maybe he won’t stop there.

Brady turns 45 today, and the Buccaneers are heavy betting favorites to win the NFC South and among the favorites to win a second Super Bowl in three years with the QB GOAT under center.

Brady has made a lot of people — teammates and bettors — money over the course of his career. Here are 12 Brady facts and statistics, betting and otherwise, from his historic career.

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1. 310 to Brady.Tom Brady enters the 2022 season with 7 Super Bowl rings in his career. In total, Brady has won a Super Bowl title with 310 different players.

2. The Book of Eli. Tom Brady accomplished a lot in his career. The one thing he didn't? Brady went 0-5 against the spread vs. Eli Manning, his most ATS losses without a win vs. any QB.

3. Odds On.In Tom Brady’s last 18 seasons in the league, he never entered the regular season with odds higher than +1200 to win the Super Bowl.

4. Bettor Dream.Including the playoffs, Tom Brady has finished at least .500 against the spread in 18 consecutive seasons (excluding 2008), between 2003 and 2021. He is 190-130-9 ATS (59.4%) in that span.

5. Franchise Tom.Tom Brady has more against the spread wins (209) than the Panthers (205), Jaguars (180) or Texans (139) have straight up wins in franchise history.

6. 12 for 12.7%. Tom Brady has been the starting QB in 17.9% of all Super Bowls and has won 12.7% of all Super Bowls.

7. Good Dog.Over the last six years, Tom Brady has been listed as an underdog just seven times (or 6.4% of his starts).

In that span, Brady was listed as an underdog vs. only 3 different QBs: Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.

Tom Brady Career as an Underdog:

+ 37-23 SU
+ 41-17-2 ATS
+ 51-9 ATS in 6-pt teaser

8. The Cover King. Tom Brady has been to 10 Super Bowls. His seven straight up wins is the most all-time and his five against the spread covers are also a record.

• Tom Brady (5): Super Bowl 36, 49, 51, 53, 55
  
• Joe Montana (3): Super Bowl 16, 19, 24
• Roger Staubach (3): Super Bowl 6, 10, 12
• Terry Bradshaw (3): Super Bowl 9, 13, 14

9. Over The Top.In his career, Tom Brady-led teams are 16-3-2 to the over on their preseason win total (14-3-2 NE, 2-0 TB).

10. Long to Short.In 2001, the New England Patriots entered the regular season with 60-1 odds to win it all. Since the beginning of the Wild Card round in 1978, only the 1999 Rams had longer odds to win the Super Bowl than Brady’s ’01 Patriots.

Only one AFC team has made the Super Bowl with preseason conference odds above +1000 since Tom Brady and the Patriots did in 2001 (+2000): 2021 Bengals at +8000 (19 of the last 20 years).

11. One Up On Bill. Bill Belichick has coached 71 games in New England without Tom Brady, and to say it simply, it hasn't been the same for bettors.

Bill Belichick ATS by QB as coach of Patriots

• Tom Brady: 187-127-10 ATS
• Other QBs: 36-35 ATS

12. Don't Doubt Brady. In our Bet Labs database, which houses NFL data since 2003, Tom Brady has started 19 games where both:

A. Brady was an underdog … AND

B. Brady's team was not the public side (49% of bets or less).

In those 19 games, Brady was 13-6 straight up and 15-3-1 against the spread, including 9-0 against the spread over the last decade. When we, as bettors, have doubted Brady the most, he's come through again and again…