Bengals vs Texans Odds & Week 10 Pick
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -105 | 47 -110o / -110u | -260 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -115 | 47 -110o / -110u | +215 |
Bengals vs. Texans odds for NFL Week 10 have streaking Cincinnati installed as 6.5-point home favorites. The over/under is 47 at most sportsbooks.
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is coming off one of the best performances by a rookie quarterback in the history of the NFL. As a result, this is the perfect time to back Joe Burrow and a surging Bengals squad at a discount. Cincinnati, however, is dealing with some injuries. Star wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (back) is questionable and Tee Higgins (hamstring) has already been ruled out.
Let's dig into this intriguing Week 10 matchup in my Houston-Cincinnati betting preview and make a Bengals vs. Texans pick and prediction.
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Bengals vs. Texans
Matchup Analysis
The Bengals defense, led by defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, will be one of the toughest tests of Stroud’s young career. The Texans have no rushing attack and rank in the bottom three of the league in both rushing success rate and yards per carry. As a team, Houston has rushed for an abysmal 3.2 yards per carry, and the running back it'll lean on Sunday, Devin Singletary, has gained only 3.4 yards per attempt. The entire success of the Texans' offense is on Stroud's shoulders.
Cincinnati's defense ranks 10th in pass defense DVOA. With that said, it has the No. 1 schedule ranking according to DVOA, which translates to them having faced the most difficult slate of offenses through the first nine weeks.
Looking at yards per play allowed when evaluating the Bengals defense can be misleading as they've had to deal with the likes of Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford, Brock Purdy, Geno Smith and Josh Allen. Additionally, not a single Bengals opponent ranks below 18th in rush offense DVOA.
The Texans' passing attack will also be without their best offensive weapon in Nico Collins, who's been incredible this season — his loss cannot be overstated. Collins has 28% of the Texans' air yards this season and has been Stroud's first read on 26% of passing plays.
Collins averages 8.0 yards after the catch per reception, which is the best in the NFL of all receivers who have run at least 200 routes. Houston's passing attack will be much less efficient without Collins' ability to separate and gain yards after the catch.
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Joe Burrow is cooking right now and the Texans' defense won't be able to stop him.
According to Sharp Football, 57.1% of the time when the Bengals had a new set of downs, that series of downs reached third down (over their first four games), which ranked 31st in the league. But over the last four games, only 40% of time have they reached third down, second-best in the league.
Obviously Burrow’s health has been the main factor in Cincinnati's rise, but more specifically, the offense is more dangerous when he can play from under center.
When Burrow was limited, the Bengals were forced to play more from the shotgun, but since his health has improved, Cincinnati has been able to use play action on nearly one-third of its passing plays over the last two weeks. The Texans' defense has been getting shredded by play action this season and ranks in the bottom five in completion percentage and yards per attempt.
Bengals vs. Texans
Betting Picks & Predictions
I don't expect either team to run the football with much success. This game will come down to quarterback play, and with the Texans ranking 26th in pass defense DVOA, I expect Burrow to dominate.
As for Stroud, the Texans have performed much better at home this season. Houston is averaging 27.2 points per game at home, but just 19.5 on the road.
We are getting an immense amount of value on the Bengals because of the public’s perception of Houston's offense. The Bengals will win their fifth straight game and should cruise to both a victory and a cover.
Pick: Bengals -6.5 | Play to -7 |
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